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Tag: AmBank Research

  • Malaysian banks to maintain earnings potential this year

    Malaysian banks to maintain earnings potential this year

    Analysts believe that the banking sector will be able to maintain its earnings potential this year, as margin pressure is expected to ease and continued loans growth with stable asset quality. MIDF Research said while the industry’s loans growth moderated to 5.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) as at December 2018 due to moderation in business loans and loans for the purchase of residential properties, the growth was still slightly above its expectations.

    “As for CY19, we expect a moderation in loans growth to 4.7% y-o-y due to the high base effect. We also believe that deposits growth will moderate to 5.3% y-o-y due to lower growth in fixed deposits growth this year,” the research house said in a note.

    “This also means that there will be accretion in value for banks’ book value. Hence, we maintain our ‘positive’ view on the sector,” it added.

    Overall, MIDF Research said it is cautiously optimistic of the banking sector continuing its solid performance in 2019.

    Given the current market conditions, the research house said its top picks for the sector are Maybank, CIMB and Public Bank.

    In a separate note, AmBank Research said it expects that the foreign fund inflows into emerging markets would benefit the share prices of the liquid banking stocks as the US Fed rate hike is tapering off.

    Therefore, the research house said it maintained its “overweight” stance for the sector with “buy” calls on RHB Bank, Public Bank, Alliance Bank, BIMB Holdings, Maybank as well as MBSB. Its tops picks include Maybank, Public and RHB Bank.

    AmBank Research noted that Maybank’s earnings are well diversified and the bank is still recording positive JAWs (a technical term that denotes income growth exceeding that of expenses) with growth in total income outpacing expenses.

    It added that Maybank’s net interest margins could also improve further ahead with the lowering of its funding cost as the group releases the excess liquidity built-up in the first half of financial year 2018 (1HFY18).

    “Meanwhile, dividend yield for the stock continues to be attractive relative to peers with its high payout ratio while potentially offering investors higher returns with the reinvestment of their dividends into additional shares under the DRS (dividend reinvestment scheme),” it added.

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  • Malaysian economy likely to bottom out in Q2, says AmBank Research

    Malaysian economy likely to bottom out in Q2, says AmBank Research

    AmBank Research, which anticipates further pressure on Malaysia’s economic growth in the first quarter of the year (Q1 2019), believes that gross domestic product (GDP) growth should register slight improvement in the second quarter and pick up thereafter. This is partly attributable to the low base effects as well as support coming from domestic activities and foreign direct investments, and complemented by exports as the electronics cycle slows down, added with softer commodity prices, it said in a note today.

    The research house said it foresees growth prospects remaining weak, anti-cipating Q4 2018 GDP growth to ease to around 4% to bring the full-year growth to 4.6%.

    “With our base case GDP outlook for 2019 at 4.5% with the upside at 4.8%, we foresee further weakening pressure on growth in Q1 2019,” it added.

    Malaysia’s third quarter GDP growth moderated to 4.4%, bringing about a nine-month expansion of 4.7%. Bank Negara Malaysia is due to announce Q4 GDP figures on Feb 14.

    AmBank Research highlighted that the strong foreign approved investments amounting to RM48.8 billion as of Q3 2018, which is an all-time high, is expected to support growth in 2019.

    The growth drivers are seen coming from petroleum refineries with RM17.2 billion investment being approved, followed by electrical and electronics (RM10.2 billion), basic metal products (RM5.7 billion), chemical and chemical products (RM4.6 billion) and rubber products (RM3.5 billion).

    Additionally, it said, agriculture, mining, and plantation and commodities saw a notable increase in approved investments with 54 projects as of Q3 2018, compared with 48 projects in 2017.

    Furthermore, investments in the services sector will continue to boost growth largely coming from local players with RM60.4 billion approved investments compared with RM96 billion in 2017, while foreign investments remained muted at RM9.5 billion as of Q3 2018 from RM28.5 billion in 2017.

    Commenting on the slump in the Nikkei Malaysia Manufacturing Pur-chasing Managers’ Index (PMI), AmResearch said it indicates downside risks with overall demand to be weak, thus causing companies to become less willing to hold stocks.

    The headline PMI fell to a six-month low of 46.8 in December 2018 from 48.2 in the previous month. The demarcation between expansion and contraction is 50.

    The data points to the sharpest deterioration in the health of the goods-producing sector since May. It also extended the current period of decline to two months. The drag largely came from severe reductions in production and new businesses.

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