Swiss confectionery manufacturer, Barry Callebaut, anticipates that the cocoa market will remain stable, despite the potential emergence of a strong El Niño weather pattern in the upcoming months. This statement was made by the company’s Chief Financial Officer, Peter Vanneste, earlier this week.
The United Nations weather agency recently announced an increased likelihood of a powerful El Niño weather pattern emerging soon. This weather phenomenon is known to significantly impact the cocoa industry and could potentially elevate global temperatures. However, Vanneste maintains a positive outlook, stating that the circumstances differ substantially from those experienced during the 2023 and 2024 cocoa market crises.
Stability Amidst Uncertainty
“Unlike the situation in 2023/2024, when El Niño coincided with the primary harvest season and triggered a third consecutive year of cocoa deficit, we are currently in a position of significant surplus,” Vanneste explained. “We have large volumes of cocoa stocks ready for the upcoming harvest season.”
In addition to maintaining a strong surplus, Barry Callebaut, which supplies key chocolate industry giants such as Nestlé and Hershey, has fortified its resilience by diversifying its sources, enhancing its cocoa bean blending capabilities, and implementing several financial measures.
Monitoring Market Trends
Vanneste also noted that his firm is keeping a keen eye on cocoa grind data. This is a key indicator of chocolate demand, particularly important as they approach the second quarter of the year.
Recent data from May shows a 39.7% year-on-year increase in cocoa grinding in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer. “The expectation is for this trend to continue,” said Vanneste. “However, it’s important to remember that demand recovery will take time. This is something we will be closely monitoring moving forward.”
Questions & Answers
What is the potential impact of a strong El Niño on the cocoa industry?
A strong El Niño weather pattern can have profound effects on the cocoa industry, often disrupting cocoa production and leading to a deficit in supply.
How has Barry Callebaut prepared for potential market instability?
Barry Callebaut has fortified its market stance through origin diversification, increased sourcing flexibility, enhancing its cocoa bean blending capabilities, and implementing financial measures.
What is the significance of monitoring cocoa grind data?
Cocoa grind data serves as a proxy for chocolate demand. Monitoring this data allows companies to effectively track and forecast market trends.



Richard Fahey, Barry Callebaut’s Vice President for Cocoa in Asia says: “Indonesia has been struggling to increase cocoa production because of ageing cocoa trees. Most of them were planted in the 1980s, are vulnerable to diseases and are well past their peak production years. Cocoa trees are strong, and will produce pods for a long time. However, the high-productive years of a cocoa tree are finite, and usually after 25 years, the trees are less productive. Indonesia desperately needs new trees in order to get back to a productivity level of around 1 mt of beans per hectare.”
Indonesia-based Sustainability Manager Ani Setiyoningrum says: “The purpose of cocoa nurseries is to provide a conducive environment in which young cocoa plants can grow a good number of leaves and fully develop its root system to a certain stage that will give cocoa plants a better chance of survival at the cocoa farm. These nurseries will require shade, water and protection from wind, and whenever necessary, protection from stray animals.”
Setiyoningrum says: “These are community-run nurseries that we help to kick-start by providing them with a start-up investment and best-practice models. These nurseries are also a form of income for these nurseries owners, some of whom are cocoa farmers themselves. Our field experts work closely with these nurseries owners to teach them to produce high quality seedlings with a high survival rate. They are given proper planting material, high-quality seeds, and the right potting mix, and are guided to develop good nursery management skills and standard operating procedures. These nursery owners then work as a professional service provider for other farmers which is becoming an avenue for additional income. The project model we are testing with around 50 nurseries across Sulawesi is suitable for nurseries producing at a large scale. Our intention is that the nurseries we start-up will eventually become totally self-sufficient businesses in their own right.”