Personal care formulators will push global spending on cosmetic vegetable oils from US$5.84 billion this year to $7.72 billion by 2031, research from MarketsandMarkets shows.
Asia-Pacific demand for plant-based ingredients is driving the bulk of that expansion as regional beauty brands overhaul skincare and haircare recipes.
Coconut oil leads ingredient demand
Coconut oil will retain the largest individual volume share throughout the forecast period, supported by heavy use in commercial haircare and barrier creams across Asian markets. Conventional oils remain dominant despite the push for specialized extracts, capturing 76.4 percent of total market value this year.
Clean-label reformulations are forcing raw material buyers to secure traceable supply chains. Consumer goods manufacturers across Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia are replacing synthetic emollients with plant derivatives to meet export standards in Western markets and satisfy domestic consumer scrutiny.
Supply pressures shift procurement
For regional manufacturers, the shift changes cost profiles in core product lines. Palm, coconut, and seed oil derivatives carry agricultural price volatility that chemical feedstocks avoid, squeezing operating margins when harvest yields drop in major producing hubs like Indonesia and the Philippines.
Retail buyers in Asia are tightening shelf requirements, penalizing brands that cannot substantiate sustainable sourcing claims on product packaging. Mass-market brands that rely on low-cost conventional oils must balance ingredient certification costs against price-sensitive consumer baskets in developing markets.
Category targets through 2031
Formulation trends over the past five years laid the groundwork for this transition, as major beauty conglomerates divested petroleum-heavy bases in favor of botanical alternatives. That initial switch in prestige skincare has now moved down into mass personal care and supermarket private labels.
Procurement teams now look toward the 2031 horizon, when cosmetic vegetable oil purchases will absorb nearly $1.9 billion in additional annual spending.
