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Tag: deficit

  • Indonesia’s Wealthy on Tax Radar as Government Battles Soaring Budget Deficit

    Indonesia’s Wealthy on Tax Radar as Government Battles Soaring Budget Deficit

    The Indonesian government is increasing its tax scrutiny on its wealthy residents and large corporations in light of a significant national budget deficit. This action is part of a broader initiative to enhance tax collections amidst a challenging year for revenue in Southeast Asia’s most substantial economy. The current budget deficit is closing in on the 3% of GDP ceiling.

    Intensified Tax Scrutiny

    Large corporations, especially those under local magnate control, have been requested to provide additional tax payments in 2025. Some family-owned businesses have been asked to contribute over US$5 million.

    Circumstances grew more complicated when a subset of these firms resisted the new demands. Tax authorities then proposed a compromise, suggesting companies pay 30% of the requested amount. The calculation method for this figure, however, was not disclosed.

    Finance Ministry’s Director-General of Taxes, Bimo Wijayanto, verified the summoning of high-net-worth taxpayers. In a press briefing on December 18, he described the move as a standard procedure meant to make tax data more accurate. He also mentioned that this initiative offers taxpayers an opportunity to provide explanations, voluntarily rectify their tax returns, and ensure compliance.

    The exact number of individuals and businesses contacted for this matter remains unknown.

    The “Hunting in a Zoo” Phenomenon

    End-of-year drives to boost tax revenue are not uncommon in Indonesia. Critics and business leaders often refer to this as “hunting in a zoo.” This metaphor refers to the tendency to focus on a small group of large, formal taxpayers who are easier to track, rather than broadening compliance across the country’s expansive informal economy.

    According to data from the Finance Ministry, tax receipts are currently significantly below targets. Collections up to the end of November amounted to 79% of a decreased full-year aim, a drop from nearly 90% over the same period the previous year.

    Experts believe that weak collections, coupled with subdued economic conditions and softer commodity prices, have led to Indonesia’s budget deficit forecast hitting 2.78% of GDP. This estimate is the highest in two decades, excluding the years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Questions & Answers

    Why is the Indonesian government increasing tax scrutiny on wealthy individuals and corporations?
    The government is trying to address a significant national budget deficit by enhancing tax collections.

    What compromise has been proposed to companies resisting additional tax payments?
    The tax authorities have suggested that these companies pay 30% of the requested amount.

    How are end-of-year efforts to increase tax revenue perceived in Indonesia?
    These efforts are often referred to as “hunting in a zoo,” indicating a focus on a small pool of large, formal taxpayers rather than seeking to expand compliance across the country’s vast informal economy.

  • Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia posted a wider than expected trade deficit in December, bringing the gap for 2018 to the largest ever, the Central Statistics Agency, or BPS, said on Tuesday. December’s trade deficit was $1.10 billion, in a third consecutive month where the gap was wider than market expectations. A Reuters poll had expected a deficit of $930 million. Southeast Asia’s largest economy had a deficit of $8.57 billion in 2018, the widest ever, a stark contrast to its $11.84 billion surplus in 2017, BPS chief Suhariyanto said.

    Last year was challenging because exports had slowed at a time when imports surged due to a recovering domestic economy, said Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata in Jakarta. This year would probably be equally challenging, he said.

    “Global economic growth is stagnating. Growth in our major trading partners such as China, the United States, Japan and Europe is slowing. If we can’t find new destinations for our products, export growth could slow further,” Josua said, noting that falling oil prices could cool down imports.

    Economists also warned that the trade data could mean Indonesia’s current-account deficit in the final quarter of 2018 was also wider than expected.

    Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo previously said the current-account gap in the fourth quarter was expected at more than 3 percent of gross domestic product, though the full-year gap was seen at about 3 percent.

    The authorities issued a slew of measures to control imports last year, including mandating wider use of biodiesel, raising import tax and delaying big, import-heavy infrastructure projects.

    The central bank also raised interest rates six times by a total of 175 basis points last year to try to bring the current-account gap down, and Perry said the deficit in 2019 was expected at 2.5 percent.

    Fakhrul Fulvian, Trimegah Sekuritas economist, said December trade data proved that Indonesia may need to slow its GDP expansion further to “bring back the balance” and improve the current-account deficit.

    In December, exports dropped 4.62 percent to $14.18 billion on a yearly basis, a second month of contraction, compared with the poll estimate of 1.81 percent increase, largely because of a slump in shipments of mining products.

    Exports to China, Indonesia’s largest trading partner, also fell in December mostly because of a decline in coal and steel sales.

    Meanwhile, December imports were worth $15.28 billion, 1.16 percent up from a year ago, but slower than the forecast of 6.6 percent.

  • Indonesia Posts Narrowest Budget Deficit in 6 Years in 2018: Finance Minister

    Indonesia Posts Narrowest Budget Deficit in 6 Years in 2018: Finance Minister

    Indonesia posted the smallest fiscal deficit in six years in 2018 and less than initially projected, despite turbulence in its financial markets due to capital outflows, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said in a Facebook post. The estimated budget deficit last year was equal to 1.72 percent of gross domestic product, narrower than both the government’s original plan of 2.19 percent and the latest estimate of 1.83 percent, Sri Mulyani said in a message posted late on New Year’s Eve.

    As a percentage of GDP, that was the smallest since 2012, the former World Bank managing director said.

    The 2018 budget also has a Rp 4.1 trillion ($283 million) surplus in its primary balance, or budget balance before interest payments, which Indrawati said was the first surplus since 2011.

    “We have done our duty to manage government finances well. The year 2018 was not an easy year with fluctuations in the global economy, commodity prices, capital flows and exchange rate,” she said, while also noting higher interest rates at home and globally.

    The rupiah plunged to its weakest in 20 years in 2018 due to capital outflows linked to worries about its twin deficits, US interest rate increases and concerns about the fallout for Asia from the US-China trade war.

    However, inflows towards the end of the year bounced it back and the currency closed the year 6 percent weaker compared with end-2017.

    Sri Mulyani said 2018 income from taxes and other revenue sources grew “high and healthy.” She previously said higher oil prices and a weaker rupiah had resulted in higher government revenues.

    The minister is expected to hold a news conference on budget realization on Wednesday.

  • Expansion Alibaba to Indonesia to Cause Rising Trade Deficit with China?

    Expansion Alibaba to Indonesia to Cause Rising Trade Deficit with China?

    Through the acquisition Alibaba is to have a firmer grip on the online retail business in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, the region’s largest economy where Internet and smartphone penetration have been developing rapidly in recent years (although coming from a low base). The Southeast Asian nations where Lazada has been operating so far have a combined population of 560 million (of which an estimated 35 percent are online and thus potential online shoppers). However, Southeast Asia is also a challenging environment for online retail firms as the area is characterized by tough logistical issues (partly due to the relatively weak state of infrastructure) and there remains a lack of warehousing outside more advanced markets such as Singapor

    Through the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), effective per 1 January 2010, about 90 percent of imported goods between Indonesia and China are subject to a zero percent tariff. Due to China’s higher developed manufacturing industry and lower logistics costs the implementation of CAFTA has caused a continuously rising flow of Chinese products into Indonesia. This has caused a rising trade deficit and also curtails development of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector (after all it is cheaper and quicker to import products from China than to invest in costly and long-term import-substitution industrialization).

    In 2015 Indonesia imported USD $29.22 billion worth of (non-oil & gas) products from China, while Indonesian exports to China only totaled USD $13.26 billion, implying a trade deficit of nearly USD $16 billion for Indonesia that year. This is in stark contrast to the years before 2008 when Indonesia had the upper hand in trade with China. The table below shows that Indonesia’s trade deficit with China rose significantly after the implementation of CAFTA in early 2010.

    Indonesia-China Trade Balance (non-oil & gas):

     2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015
    Export to China
    (in USD billion)
      9.7  11.6  11.5   14.1   21.6   20.9   21.3   16.5   13.3
    Import from China
    (in USD billion)
      8.6  15.3  14.0   19.7   25.5   29.0   29.6   30.5   29.2
    Trade Balance
    (in USD billion)
      1.1  -3.7  -2.5   -5.6   -3.9   -8.1   -8.3  -14.0  -15.9

    Source: Indonesian Trade Ministry

    With Alibaba now owning a controlling stake in e-commerce platform Lazada, which has a rising costumer base in Indonesia, it could cause two developments: (1) due to the stronger ties between Lazada and China it gives rise to an increasing flow of Chinese products into Indonesia putting pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance, and (2) it threatens the position of local Indonesian start-up e-commerce businesses such as Bukalapak or Tokopedia because Lazada is expected to get a capital injection from Alibaba for expansion purposes and has easier access to cheap Chinese products (more competitive).