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Tag: economic growth

  • Asia to Drive 59% of Global Growth as World Economy Slows to 2.6%

    Asia to Drive 59% of Global Growth as World Economy Slows to 2.6%

    Asia will generate 59 percent of global economic expansion in 2026 as worldwide growth slows to 2.6 percent, down from 2.9 percent last year.

    Higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East continue to drag on performance, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said in its latest trade and development report. Total trade in goods and services will rise 4 percent in constant prices, lifted primarily by elevated fuel costs after global merchandise and services turnover reached a record $35 trillion in 2025.

    India and Southeast Asia Lead Regional Output

    India will lead major economies with projected growth of 7.3 percent in 2026. Indonesia follows at 5.2 percent, while China is forecast to expand by 4.5 percent. These three markets form the core of regional momentum as Western demand softens and energy bills rise.

    Regional trade networks have adjusted to sharp declines in direct transpacific shipments. Bilateral trade between China and the United States has dropped by more than 20 percent since 2024. Producers in East Asia have absorbed the shift, increasing cross-border volumes with both mainland China and North American buyers to keep consumer goods moving.

    Export Controls and Supply Chain Friction

    Policy barriers have tightened across strategic manufacturing sectors, altering the economics for component suppliers and consumer device assemblers. Trade officials pointed to rising regulatory hurdles that limit cross-border investment and factory expansion.

    Export controls, investment screening and supply-chain conditions make strategic sectors harder for new entrants to access

    Semiconductors and artificial intelligence hardware represent the largest single driver of merchandise trade across East Asian freight hubs. Yet UNCTAD warned that elevated trade in hardware components does not translate automatically into wider economic gains across emerging markets. Financial stability risks have also widened because equity markets and capital spending remain concentrated in a small group of dominant technology companies.

    Shifting Margins for Brands and Retailers

    For consumer brands and logistics operators across Asia, the data confirms a two-speed operating environment. Strong domestic wage gains and consumer spending in South and Southeast Asia balance out sluggish revenue growth in export-dependent Western markets. Retailers expanding across India and Indonesia benefit from firm local demand, while export manufacturers face higher ocean shipping fuel surcharges.

    Supply chain rerouting adds capital expense for regional distributors. Moving intermediary goods through third-party Asian hubs avoids direct tariffs but increases handling costs, inventory holding requirements, and port turnaround times. Retailers importing finished goods must price in these structural transport costs rather than treating higher shipping bills as temporary spikes.

    Differing Multilateral Forecasts for 2026

    Multilateral institutions hold diverging views on how severe the current deceleration will be. The World Bank lowered its 2026 global growth baseline to 2.5 percent in June, citing Middle East conflict risks, and estimated that an escalating crisis could cut worldwide output growth to 1.3 percent in a worst-case scenario.

    The International Monetary Fund maintains a higher forecast of 3 percent. However, the fund identified trade fragmentation, energy price spikes from the war involving Iran, and potential equity market corrections in the artificial intelligence sector as immediate threats to that baseline.

    Trade ministers and central banks across the region now track fourth-quarter energy import bills and bilateral tariff updates ahead of the next IMF and World Bank global economic outlook revisions scheduled for early 2027.

  • ADB Lifts Southeast Asia Growth Outlook to 4.7% on Tech Exports

    ADB Lifts Southeast Asia Growth Outlook to 4.7% on Tech Exports

    The Asian Development Bank raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for developing Southeast Asia to 4.7 per cent on Wednesday, up from 4.6 per cent projected in July. Global shipments of semiconductor chips and data center components surged. That demand offset the drag from high energy prices and severe weather.

    Across the wider Asia-Pacific region, the Manila-based lender lifted its 2026 expansion target by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0 per cent. It held the 2027 projection at 5.1 per cent. The revised figures show a widening regional split. Electronics manufacturing hubs are pulling ahead while economies exposed to food inflation and power generation shortfalls lag behind.

    Hardware Demand Lifts Export Leaders

    Vietnam received the sharpest upgrade in the updated Asian Development Outlook. Growth there is now projected at 7.8 per cent for 2026, up from 7.2 per cent. The bank also increased Vietnam’s 2027 forecast to 7.6 per cent, citing strong foreign direct investment and state stimulus programs directed into industrial parks and logistics infrastructure.

    Malaysia gained an upward adjustment as well. The economy will expand 4.9 per cent in 2026, up from the 4.6 per cent estimated in July. Growth should moderate to 4.7 per cent in 2027. Both countries have secured substantial market share in chip packaging, testing, and component fabrication for cloud infrastructure operators.

    Net exports remained resilient, supported by demand for electronics and AI-related products.

    Thailand recorded a modest bump to 2.0 per cent for 2026 from 1.8 per cent, though ADB trimmed its 2027 outlook to 1.9 per cent. Indonesia held steady. Growth there is projected at 5.2 per cent across both years, underpinned by household consumption.

    Energy Costs and Drought Penalise Importers

    Prospects weakened in the Philippines. The lender lowered the country’s 2026 growth target to 3.3 per cent from 3.8 per cent. It also reduced the 2027 forecast to 5.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent. Power sector strains and dry spells continue to weigh on domestic output.

    Geopolitical friction in the Middle East and Eastern Europe has kept fuel import bills high for non-oil producers. In markets like Cambodia and the Philippines, higher utility tariffs flow directly into retail prices. That squeeze curbs discretionary consumer spending and raises cold-chain logistics expenses for supermarket operators.

    What the Divergence Changes for Retail and Supply Chains

    Consumer brands face a shifting landscape where capital expenditure yields the fastest returns. Rising wages in Vietnam and Malaysia bolster middle-income buying power for consumer tech and packaged goods. Mall operators and retail chains are accelerating store openings in secondary cities to match demand.

    Agricultural supply chains face heavier margin pressure across the western Pacific. Parched croplands and high diesel prices increase transport and ingredient costs for food manufacturers. Fast-moving consumer goods suppliers must now renegotiate wholesale contracts across archipelagic supply routes.

    Earlier Forecast Steps and Baseline Trajectory

    The latest revisions follow a July review where regional output held steady against tightening monetary conditions in Western export destinations. In April, the lender had modeled a broader regional recovery. Energy market volatility then intensified through the middle quarters of the year.

    Price pressures have eased across developing Asia, where headline inflation should settle at 2.8 per cent this year. That moderation gives central banks room to adjust interest rates once currency pressures ease against the US dollar.

    The Timeline for El Nino Disruption

    Weather risks represent the primary operational hazard through the coming quarters. ADB expects the current El Nino pattern to intensify through late 2026 and peak around November. That timeline threatens hydroelectric generation and irrigated rice cultivation.

    Agricultural disruptions register in headline economic data with a multi-month lag. The bank expects the sharpest drag from the climate cycle to hit during the first half of 2027. The next baseline revision to regional growth figures arrives in December.

  • World Bank Urges Thailand to Lift 12% AI Adoption Rate for 2037 Goal

    World Bank Urges Thailand to Lift 12% AI Adoption Rate for 2037 Goal

    Thailand must lift its corporate artificial intelligence adoption beyond the current 12 per cent rate to hit high-income status by 2037, according to the World Bank.

    Only about one in eight Thai businesses currently deploys AI tools, despite recent data centre investments and an established electronics manufacturing base. Speaking at the Bangkok Business Summit, World Bank vice-president for East Asia and Pacific Carlos Felipe Jaramillo warned that commercial adoption remains too concentrated among large corporations in the capital.

    Closing the SME technology gap

    Small, medium and micro-enterprises outside Bangkok account for the bulk of employment but lag in digital capabilities. The multilateral lender presented its “Building Thailand’s Future Today” report at the summit, hosted by the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, setting out reforms for enterprise competitiveness.

    Thailand spends roughly 1 per cent of gross domestic product on research and development. Across the East Asia-Pacific region, that average sits at 2.5 per cent. World Bank senior economist Katherine Stapleton said closing that divide requires redirecting state R&D incentives toward smaller firms rather than limiting innovation programmes to top-tier conglomerates.

    RetailNews Asia notes that enterprise technology providers across Southeast Asia face a similar bottleneck: high digital consumer penetration alongside sluggish software uptake inside merchant supply chains. While Bangkok ranks among the region’s most connected consumer markets, commercial software integration across provincial retail and logistics networks remains sparse.

    Raising growth targets

    Meeting the government’s 2037 high-income target will require annual real GDP growth to jump to 5.4 per cent per person. Thai economic expansion has averaged 2.2 per cent per person since the pandemic.

    Exports generate roughly 70 per cent of Thailand’s gross domestic product, yet foreign direct investment continues to generate weak spillover gains for local suppliers. The World Bank argues that upgrading domestic software capabilities and fostering regional commercial hubs will determine whether the economy escapes middle-income stagnation.

    The Joint Standing Committee and state planning agencies are now reviewing corporate tax breaks and startup development programmes ahead of the next fiscal policy cycle.

  • Bank of Korea Projected to Lift 2026 Economic Growth Estimate Past 3%

    Bank of Korea Projected to Lift 2026 Economic Growth Estimate Past 3%

    The Bank of Korea is expected to raise South Korea’s 2026 economic growth forecast above 3 per cent from 2.6 per cent.

    Surging semiconductor exports and recovering domestic consumption are driving private analyst projections as high as 3.4 per cent. Economic forecasters surveyed by Yonhap News Agency anticipate the central bank will adjust its outlook upward during its upcoming revision cycle, reflecting stronger factory output and higher state spending supported by rising tax receipts.

    Semiconductor Supercycle Drives Upward Revisions

    Nomura Securities posted the highest forecast among respondents at 3.4 per cent. Park Jeong-woo, an economist at Nomura, noted that exponential growth in artificial intelligence inference workloads continues to outpace chip production, suggesting supply constraints could extend beyond 2027.

    Korea Investment & Securities analyst Ahn Jae-kyun projected 3.2 per cent annual growth, pointing to a combination of heavy technology exports and a rebound in local consumer demand. Other respondents placed their 2026 projections between 3.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent. Projections for 2027 moderated, landing between 2.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent across the surveyed institutions.

    Some analysts urged caution regarding the duration of the current technology cycle. Joo Won, deputy director of economic research at Hyundai Research Institute, noted that chip exports dipped in August compared to the prior month, suggesting the export boom may reach its peak between late 2026 and early 2027.

    Surplus Records and Consumer Price Pressures

    South Korea’s current account surplus for the first six months of 2026 has already surpassed the 2025 full-year record of $191 billion. Economists expect the central bank to sharply increase its previous $250 billion annual surplus projection published in May.

    For consumer-facing businesses across the region, a stronger macroeconomic baseline in South Korea provides welcome support for retail footfall and high-ticket consumer electronics, though imported inflation limits purchasing power. Central banks across East Asia face similar cross-currents as artificial intelligence hardware spending lifts headline industrial figures while currency volatility keeps domestic borrowing costs elevated.

    Economists expect the Bank of Korea to hold its 2026 consumer price inflation projection at 2.7 per cent, with elevated oil prices and the won-dollar exchange rate serving as the main hurdles to earlier interest rate cuts.

  • Malaysia’s 2018 economic growth expected to remain above 5%

    Malaysia’s 2018 economic growth expected to remain above 5%

    Malaysia’s first quarter (1Q18) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 5.4% year on year, lower than the consensus projection but AmBank Research is maintaining its 5.5% GDP growth for this year as it expects private consumption and the services sectors to continue to support growth together with other areas of business activities.

    “Apart from private consumption and services, we noticed that most of the other economic segments showed some loss of growth momentum. Still, our current 5.5% GDP growth for the full year remains, as we expect private consumption and services sectors will continue to support growth together with other areas of business activities,” it said in a report.

    “With the announcement of the Goods & Services Tax removal, added with the potential reintroduction of fuel and electricity subsidies as well as the review of toll roads, these suggest that the underlying inflation will pick up gradually.

    “While our base case for OPR (Overnight Policy Rate) remains with a total of one rate hike by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) that took place in January with the OPR now at 3.25%, the probability for a second rate hike in September 2018 remains at a low 45%,” said AmBank.

    However, Kenanga Research has revised its 2018 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% in 2018 from 5.5% (2017: 5.9%), as it said the change in government will likely put a damper on private investment due to policy uncertainty and disrupted public spending, which pose downside risks to its GDP forecast going forward.

    “The only upside to growth could possibly be derives from higher private consumption following the government’s decision to scrap the Goods and Services Tax (setting its rate at zero from June 1) and take its time to implement the sales and services tax. External factors may also weigh on growth mainly the expectation that exports would continue to slow on the back of the slowing global demand for consumer electronics especially mobile devices.”

    Nonetheless, it said there could be offsetting factors if the government takes an aggressive approach to review major infrastructure projects. It then can prioritise or strategically delay projects that have high import content as it did in the 1990s. Less import could help boost net exports and support GDP growth.

    Kenanga expects monetary policy to remain accommodative. It said although the central bank has left interest rates unchanged since it raised the OPR in January, the outlook for monetary policy may have turned considerably uncertain following the change in government.

    “The biggest risk to the monetary policy outlook is that a post-election sharp decline in investment would exacerbate an economic slowdown. This may prompt BNM to loosen its monetary policy and cut interest rates. For now we are maintaining our view that the OPR will remain on hold until the end of the year.”

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  • Malaysian economic growth slowed in Q4

    Malaysian economic growth slowed in Q4

    Malaysia’s economy grew more slowly in the last quarter of 2017 than the blistering pace set in July-September, a Reuters poll showed, as exports increased at a slower rate.

    The median forecast in the poll of 12 economists was for annual growth of 5.7% in October-December, compared with the previous period’s 6.2% – the fastest rate since the second quarter of 2014.

    Forecasts for the fourth quarter ranged from 5.2% to 6.1%.

    “The best is behind us,” ING said in a note today about Malaysia’s growth pace, noting that a high base effect has been impacting growth rates in several Asian economies.

    Whatever Malaysia’s fourth quarter number, 2017 have brought Malaysia its fastest full-year growth since 2014’s 6%.

    Growth in each of 2017’s first three quarters topped 5.5%.

    Brian Tan, a Singapore-based economist with Nomura, said the fourth quarter brought a “slowdown in exports which looked quite sharp, but we suspect it was due to the ringgit appreciation during the period”.

    In October-December, exports rose 12.4% from a year earlier, down from increases of more than 20% in each of the first three quarters. The peak increase, in July-September, was 22.1%.

    Malaysia reports its trade figures in ringgit.

    During 2017, the currency strengthened more than 10% against the dollar.

    Industrial production rose 2.9% annually in December, down from 5% a month earlier.

    Growth in Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy beat expectations in the third quarter, helped by private sector spending.

    In October, the government revised up its 2017 full-year growth projection to 5.2-5.7%, up from 4.3% to 4.8%.

    Malaysia’s economy grew 4.2% in 2016.

    Robust private consumption is expected to have propped up fourth quarter growth, with higher motor vehicle and retail sales and strong consumer sentiment, HSBC said in a note.

    The volume index of wholesale and retail trade rose 6.8% in the fourth quarter, according to data released last week by Malaysia’s statistics department.

    Strong growth figures over the past three quarters and rising inflation rates prompted Bank Negara Malaysia in January to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. It was the first hike in three and a half years.

    ING, which forecasts 5.5% annual growth for 2017’s fourth quarter, has pencilled in one more 25 basis point rate hike, for the third quarter of this year.

  • Hong Kong’s economic growth to ease in third-quarter on China slowdown

    Hong Kong’s economic growth to ease in third-quarter on China slowdown

    Hong Kong’s economic growth is expected to slow in the third quarter from the second, with weak exports, sluggish retail sales and falling tourist arrivals, continuing to take a toll on the Asian financial centre.

    The once vibrant city is also grappling with a slowdown in China, while its outlook has been hurt by rising tensions with Beijing that could threaten stability and impede policymaking.

    The economy was expected to grow 0.3 percent for the third quarter from the second, according to the median estimate of economists in a Reuters poll. From a year earlier, growth was forecast at 1.6 percent.

    The government is due to release gross domestic product data on Friday at 0830 GMT.

    Gross domestic product grew a seasonally-adjusted 1.6 percent in the second quarter from the first, and 1.7 percent from a year earlier, the government said in August.

    Hong Kong’s retail sales fell for the 19th straight month in September as China’s economic slowdown and a strong local currency crimped business activity and tourism.

    “We think retail sales and tourism have not yet recovered. There are still downside risks,” said Young Sun Kwon, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura.

    Another potential risk is the impact of cooling measures imposed by the government this month to rein in property prices, which are among the most expensive in the world.

    The government said it would raise stamp duties on home purchases to 15 percent, across the board, effective Nov. 5.

    Economists said it was still too early to tell how effective the measures would be as there were other factors involved, such as the U.S. presidential election and China’s economic performance.

    Hong Kong, once the busiest port in the world, is also heavily dependent on trade, and its exports and imports are predominantly re-exports to and from mainland China.

    The Trade Development Council has cut its forecast for the city’s exports this year from flat to a 4 percent decline.

    Slower economic growth could pile further pressure on Hong Kong leader Leung Chun-ying ahead of an election next year and amid rising tensions with the central government in China over concerns of increased meddling by Beijing in the city’s affairs.

    The former British colony’s economy is now more vulnerable as it struggles with weaker retail sales and a slump in cash-rich mainland Chinese streaming across the border on shopping sprees.