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Tag: food prices

  • Bangladesh Fruit Import Duties Reached Nearly Tk 6,000 Crore in FY26

    Bangladesh Fruit Import Duties Reached Nearly Tk 6,000 Crore in FY26

    Bangladesh collected nearly Tk 6,000 crore in import duties on fresh fruits in fiscal year 2025-26, doubling customs revenue over five years even as private shipments fell 29 per cent.

    Importers brought in 5.7 lakh tonnes of produce such as apples, oranges, grapes, and mandarins during FY26, down from 8 lakh tonnes in FY21, according to an assessment by the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

    Tax rates explain the divergence. Total import taxes on fresh fruit climbed from 89.32 per cent in FY21 to 121.78 per cent in the current fiscal year 2026-27. Customs duties, regulatory levies, and supplementary taxes pushed retail prices beyond the reach of low-income shoppers. In Dhaka, apples that sold between Tk 250 and Tk 340 a kilogram two years ago now fetch between Tk 300 and Tk 400. Several years ago, shoppers paid less than Tk 300 per kilogram.

    Currency Slump and Cash Margins Hit Grocers

    Currency depreciation compounded the tax shock. The Bangladeshi taka weakened 43 per cent against the greenback, sliding from an average of Tk 84.80 per US dollar in FY21 to Tk 121.50 in FY26. Importers had to absorb that exchange rate hit alongside a 100 per cent cash margin requirement on letters of credit introduced during the 2023 foreign exchange crunch. Bangladesh Bank recently withdrew that cash margin rule as foreign exchange reserves stabilized, yet retail prices have not retreated.

    Food retailers in urban markets added their own buffers. The commission found that retail grocers widened their percentage markups faster than wholesale distributors, passing all foreign exchange risk directly to consumer baskets. Higher prices have crimped dietary options during peak dengue treatment periods, when hospital demand for vitamin C-rich citrus spikes.

    A Tax on Crops Farmers Do Not Grow

    Horticultural protection does not justify the import levy. Bangladesh maintains zero commercial domestic production of apples, oranges, mandarins, grapes, pears, or pomegranates. Every piece of these fruits consumed in the country arrives through ports.

    By treating baseline table fruits as luxury merchandise, tax policy creates severe consumer distortions without shielding a single local orchard. The tariff commission confirmed that Bangladesh now imposes the highest fresh fruit import duties in South Asia, while Nepal levies the lowest.

    The Tariff Rollback Model

    The commission formally recommended that the commerce ministry drop both supplementary duties and regulatory duties on non-native fruit imports. Lowering the overall tax incidence back to 89 per cent would reverse volume declines without sacrificing public coffers, according to agency projections. The commission estimated the National Board of Revenue could harvest more than Tk 6,500 crore if import volumes rebounded to 8.20 lakh tonnes under lower tariff rates.

    Consumers Association of Bangladesh President AHM Shafiquzzaman backed the reduction, arguing that public health demands affordable produce.

    “Across the world, prices of the fruits appear to be the highest in Bangladesh. But as fruit is part of public health, people should have options to decide whether they would consume locally produced fruits or imported ones. The authority should consider collecting other options to collect revenue,” he added.

    What Lies Ahead for Importers

    The earlier step that started this squeeze was the National Board of Revenue’s tariff hike in fiscal year 2021-22, designed to brake foreign exchange outflows. That emergency barrier outlived its immediate purpose, leaving fruit importers with stranded balance sheets and suppressed order books.

    The commerce ministry now faces a formal decision on whether to accept the commission’s tariff cut proposal and submit a revised rate sheet to the National Board of Revenue ahead of the mid-year budget adjustments.

  • Global Food Prices Climbed 5.8 per Cent in September Despite Near-Record Grain Output

    Global Food Prices Climbed 5.8 per Cent in September Despite Near-Record Grain Output

    Global food commodity prices climbed 5.8 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, driven higher by energy shocks, shipping bottlenecks and surging fertiliser expenses across major Asian trade routes.

    The Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index reached 136 points during the month, up 1.5 per cent from August, despite worldwide cereal output tracking toward 2.979 billion tonnes, the second-highest harvest recorded.

    Global cereal inventories remain stable at roughly 950 million tonnes for the 2026-27 season, yet distribution costs and input pricing have broken the link between grain abundance and retail shelf prices. The divergence exposes supermarket chains, food processors and institutional buyers to compounding margin pressure as wholesale commodity jumps filter directly into wholesale procurement.

    Input Shocks Ripple Through Maritime Corridors

    Maritime trade disruptions in the Middle East and the Black Sea have inflated transportation and processing overheads throughout the year. Tanker freight rates jumped more than 90 per cent following security conflicts around the Strait of Hormuz, a passage handling one-quarter of seaborne crude and one-third of seaborne fertiliser trade. Bunker fuel costs doubled over the same period, forcing commercial carriers to add war-risk surcharges to bulk grain and oilseed shipments.

    International urea prices climbed 80 per cent between February and April to surpass $850 a tonne, while diammonium phosphate gained over 10 per cent. Those input spikes hit crop economics across South and Southeast Asia just as planting cycles began. Logistical friction in the Black Sea and dry weather in North America lifted global wheat prices 6.3 per cent in September alone. International maize prices rose 5.6 per cent month-on-month, compounded by smaller Brazilian export volumes and lower yields in the United States.

    Vegetable oils and sugar followed a similar upward path. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index gained 0.9 per cent in September on firm palm oil buying and dry conditions in Southeast Asian growing basins, while sugar prices jumped 6.1 per cent.

    Indian Retail Shelves Absorb Upstream Inflation

    In New Delhi and across major Indian metropolitan centres, retail food inflation accelerated to 7.74 per cent in September from 5.97 per cent in August. While central grain warehouses held 87 million tonnes of wheat and rice on September 1, shielding staple cereal retail prices to a 3.94 per cent rise, perishable and imported categories recorded sharp increases.

    Edible oils and fats inflation reached 8.35 per cent in September. The combined category for vegetables, tubers and pulses rose 9.18 per cent, while fruits and nuts climbed 10.75 per cent. At the consumer level, Crisil Intelligence calculated that the cost of preparing a standard home-cooked vegetarian meal rose 10 per cent year-on-year to 30.8 rupees in September, driven by higher prices for cooking oil, onions and liquefied petroleum gas.

    India’s trade account shows the scale of the cost transfer. National crude oil imports totalled $74.8 billion between April and August, up 48.4 per cent in value despite import volumes slipping 0.4 per cent. Fertiliser import expenditure jumped 53.25 per cent to $8.21 billion during the five-month span, while vegetable oil purchases grew 11.28 per cent to $9.18 billion. Domestic urea output fell 27 per cent in March to 1.8 million tonnes when feedstock natural gas deliveries dropped to 60 per cent of normal capacity before stabilizing.

    Weather Risks Threaten Export Allocations

    Climate factors are tightening the outlook for the next crop cycle. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 83 per cent probability that a strong El Nino pattern will persist through the first quarter of 2027. In India, the 2026 southwest monsoon concluded with rainfall 13 per cent below historical averages, marking the driest seasonal performance since 2015. Southern states faced a 24 per cent deficit, while eastern and northeastern territories recorded a 26 per cent shortfall.

    Reduced reservoir levels pose direct operational hurdles for winter sowing. Crisil forecasts a 5 to 6 per cent decline in domestic paddy production due to lower planted area and thinner yields. Because India supplies roughly 40 per cent of the cross-border rice trade, production shortfalls in the domestic basin carry immediate pricing consequences for food distributors across the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia.

    Government subsidies have so far absorbed a portion of the shock, with central budget spending on fertiliser support rising 20.7 per cent to 1.03 trillion rupees between April and August. Food manufacturers and commercial retailers nonetheless face higher cold-chain logistics costs, packaging inflation and inventory holding expenses as raw materials turn costlier.

    Trade Metrics to Track Through 2027

    Retail grocers and packaged food companies across the region enter the final quarter of 2026 with little room to absorb further wholesale increases without adjusting shelf prices. Operating margins will depend heavily on whether winter rainfall restores reservoir capacity across key agricultural belts.

    Over the next 6-12 months, I would watch pulses, edible oils and vegetable prices; rabi sowing and soil moisture; reservoir levels; crude oil and fertiliser prices; the rupee; freight costs; and government decisions on food imports, exports and stocks. The key signal will be whether inflation remains concentrated in a few commodities or starts spreading across the wider food basket.

    Market participants are now tracking weekly acreage numbers for India’s rabi crop, alongside monthly palm oil stock levels in Malaysia and Indonesia, to gauge whether retail food inflation stabilizes before the 2027 harvest cycle opens.

  • Thai Headline Inflation Rises to 2.82% in September Below Market Forecasts

    Thai Headline Inflation Rises to 2.82% in September Below Market Forecasts

    Thailand’s headline consumer price index rose 2.82 per cent in September from a year earlier, driven by higher fuel and food costs across the country.

    The annual increase stepped up from 2.53 per cent in August but fell short of the 3.06 per cent rise projected in a Reuters market poll.

    Data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday showed the headline print remained within the Bank of Thailand’s official target range of 1.00 per cent to 3.00 per cent. Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile fresh food and energy expenses, climbed 1.50 per cent year on year against a forecast of 1.54 per cent.

    Ministry adjusts full-year price band

    Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a briefing that headline inflation will accelerate further in the fourth quarter. Officials expect the pace of price gains in October to exceed the September reading as seasonal patterns and distribution costs take effect.

    Recent regional flooding will have only a minor effect on consumer pricing across agricultural supply chains, Nantapong said. Taking flood damage into account, the ministry narrowed its full-year 2026 inflation forecast to a range between 1.80 per cent and 2.20 per cent, compared with an earlier projection of 1.50 per cent to 2.50 per cent.

    Margin pressure across consumer retail

    For supermarket chains, convenience operators and food service groups in Thailand, the pickup in food and energy expenses tests gross margin buffers. Retailers face higher transport overheads while consumer demand remains sensitive to basket price increases at fresh markets and grocery aisles.

    Store operators that rely on imported staples or high-turnover packaged foods must absorb cost variations or risk losing volume to discount channels. The moderate core inflation rate indicates that underlying demand across discretionary categories is not overheating, limiting the pricing power of consumer brands.

    Central bank interest rate posture

    Subdued underlying price pressure gives monetary authorities room to support broader commercial activity without tightening borrowing costs abruptly. Higher retail lending rates would pinch consumer credit balances and stall store expansion plans for regional mall developers.

    The policy stance remains focused on stability as commercial lenders track household debt levels. Stable borrowing costs help mid-sized retail operators finance working capital and inventory requirements ahead of the peak year-end holiday shopping cycle.

    Monetary policy timeline

    Between January and September, headline consumer price inflation averaged 1.54 per cent across the Thai economy. That average sits in the lower half of the central bank’s target corridor, reflecting moderate price pressures over the first nine months of the year.

    Don Nakornthab, assistant governor at the Bank of Thailand, said last month that monetary policy is “very, very accommodative”. The central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent during its monetary policy review in August.

    Rate setters at the central bank hold their next scheduled monetary policy review on October 28.

  • Global Food Price Index Hits Nearly Four-Year High on Sugar Surge

    Global Food Price Index Hits Nearly Four-Year High on Sugar Surge

    Global food commodity prices rose 1.9 per cent in August as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization price index reached 133.3 points, its highest level since November 2022.

    The increase leaves the benchmark 2.5 per cent higher than a year earlier, driven by broad gains across sugar, cereals, dairy, meat and vegetable oils.

    Sugar registered the steepest climb across the index, jumping 11.9 per cent month on month to 106.4 points. Lower expected sugarbeet yields in the European Union, production declines in Brazil, and weather concerns tied to El Niño in major Asian producers squeezed supply outlooks. India compounded the pressure by announcing duty-free raw sugar imports to shore up domestic availability.

    “August’s increase in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the FAO. Torero pointed to climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and trade logistics bottlenecks as factors tightening supply expectations.

    Grains and Oils Add Cost Pressure

    Cereal prices averaged 116.3 points in August, up 2.2 per cent from July to reach their highest reading since May 2024. Quotations rose for wheat, maize and rice, driven by strong buying interest, adverse weather across several production belts, and shipping disruptions from Black Sea ports in Ukraine.

    Vegetable oils rose 0.6 per cent to 196.9 points. Firm global import demand lifted palm and soy oil values, while dry conditions linked to El Niño threatened plantation yields in Southeast Asia. Rapeseed and sunflower oils softened slightly on expectations of steady harvest volumes.

    Dairy prices advanced 2.3 per cent to 119.2 points because of lower raw milk collections in Europe. Meat edged up 1 per cent to 127.9 points as hot weather slowed pig growth across European farms, though bovine meat prices dipped after Chinese import quotas intensified price competition between Brazilian and Australian cattle exporters.

    Margin Squeeze for Asian Food Retailers

    For packaged goods manufacturers and supermarket operators across Asia, the August index reading signals renewed margin pressure on pantry staples. Food retailers in import-dependent hubs had spent much of the past year managing lower inventory carrying costs, but rising raw input prices for sugar, wheat and cooking oils will force pricing reviews before the fourth-quarter holiday buying cycle.

    Passing higher wholesale costs directly to consumers remains difficult in markets where household budgets are already stretched by utility and transport expenses. Retailers face a choice between absorbing lower gross margins on staple categories or relying on smaller pack sizes and promotional discounts to preserve transaction volumes.

    Supply Outlook for Regional Sourcing

    The August figure sits 16.8 per cent below the all-time high recorded in March 2022, when the outbreak of war in Ukraine disrupted agricultural trade. The latest rally shows that structural supply risks remain sensitive to localized weather and trade restrictions.

    Procurement teams are now monitoring regional harvest numbers closely after the agency cut its 2026 global cereal production forecast by 2 per cent to 2.98 billion tonnes, a harvest that would still rank as the second-largest on record.

  • Singapore Core Inflation Accelerates to 2% in July on Rising Utilities

    Singapore Core Inflation Accelerates to 2% in July on Rising Utilities

    Singapore core consumer inflation accelerated to 2 per cent in July, driven by higher utility bills alongside rising food and service costs.

    The figure climbed from 1.6 per cent in June, logging the highest reading since October 2024, according to figures released by the Department of Statistics. Even with the pickup, the print remained below the 2.2 per cent median estimate projected in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

    Surging energy and food expenses

    Utility bills served as the primary catalyst for the monthly increase. Electricity and gas costs surged 8.7 per cent year on year in July, reversing a 2.9 per cent contraction recorded previously.

    Headline inflation, which includes accommodation and private transport alongside underlying consumer goods, climbed to 2.2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in June. Rising housing expenditures contributed to that broader increase alongside the pickup in core categories.

    Margin pressures for local operators

    For retail tenants, food outlets, and service providers across the island, sharper utility swings immediately feed into commercial overheads. Higher operating power expenses arrive just as consumer baskets adjust to persistent service inflation, testing pricing flexibility across dining and discretionary retail.

    Market attention now turns to upcoming third-quarter monetary policy reviews, with operators watching whether central bank settings adjust to keep import costs and service inflation anchored.

  • Indonesia Consumer Inflation Climbs to 3.19% in August

    Indonesia Consumer Inflation Climbs to 3.19% in August

    Indonesia’s headline inflation jumped to 3.19 per cent year on year in August 2026, driven by rising grocery bills, gold jewelry costs and higher transport fares.

    The increase from 2.28 per cent in July lifted the national consumer price index to 111.97 from 108.51 a year earlier, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The headline print remains inside Bank Indonesia’s target corridor of 2.5 per cent plus or minus one percentage point.

    Food and Personal Care Drive Basket Costs

    Food, beverages and tobacco delivered the heaviest punch to household budgets, climbing 3.86 per cent and adding 1.13 percentage points to the headline number. Broiler chicken, fresh fish, cooking oil and rice led the increases alongside bird’s eye chili, beef and cigarettes. Volatile food prices alone advanced 4.06 per cent over the twelve months.

    Personal care and other services recorded the steepest category increase at 9.25 per cent, contributing 0.63 percentage points. High retail demand and elevated prices for gold jewelry accounted for most of that category gain.

    Transportation expenses climbed 4.79 per cent from August 2025, adding 0.58 percentage points to headline inflation. BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono said higher gasoline prices, costlier airfares, vehicle lubricants, and rising prices for cars and motorcycles drove the transport index up.

    Core Price Pressures Across Provinces

    Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and government-regulated tariffs, stood at 2.92 per cent year on year. It contributed 1.87 percentage points to the overall index, buoyed by gold jewelry, prepared rice meals, cooking oil, mobile phones and laptops. Government-administered prices rose 3.32 per cent on higher household fuel and air travel costs.

    All 38 Indonesian provinces recorded annual price increases during the month. North Maluku logged the country’s highest regional inflation at 5.28 per cent, while North Kalimantan posted the lowest reading at 2.17 per cent.

    For consumer brands and supermarket operators, the sharp uptick in poultry and staple grain prices tests grocery basket sizes after a period of quiet monthly deflation in July. Packaged food manufacturers face immediate margin pressure across basic cooking ingredients, while discretionary retailers must contend with higher transport outlays eating into urban household disposable income.

    Bank Indonesia next reviews its benchmark policy rate later this month, with policymakers balancing rupiah stability against the latest pickup in core consumer prices.