Tag: moneter

  • Vietnam per capita income matches Malaysia’s 20 years ago

    Vietnam per capita income matches Malaysia’s 20 years ago

    Vietnam’s recent economic achievements notwithstanding, much effort is needed for it to close the gap with other countries, a minister has said. Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said at a conference Wednesday that while Vietnam’s GDP per capita had surged by 27.4 times in the last 30 years to almost $2,590 last year, Malaysia had achieved this figure 20 years ago.

    Thailand had done so 15 years ago and Indonesia 10 years ago.

    The main limitations of its economy were low labor productivity, economic efficiency and competitiveness, and the country also faced the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap.

    According to the 2018 Vietnam Annual Economic Report, average productivity per worker was VND60.73 million ($2,600) in 2017, lower than that of China, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia.

    Currently the country also faced challenges like the U.S.-China trade war, the minister said.

    For these reasons, institutional reforms were necessary to achieve a more sustainable economy, he noted.

    Macroeconomic stability and high economic growth with innovation in science and technology were imperative.

    The private sector had to remain one of the pillars of the economy in future, Dung said. “If Vietnam doesn’t catch the 4.0 train, the gap between it with other countries will become wider. Vietnam needs to narrow that gap.”

    Vietnam’s GDP has grown at 6.8 percent a year on average for the last 20 years, and the economy has grown 39 fold in the period to $245 billion last year.

    Growth last year was 7.08 percent, the highest in a decade.

  • RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Ratings, which expects inflation to inch up to 0.3% in December 2018 from 0.2% in the previous month, has revised its full-year headline inflation forecast for 2019 to 2.0% from 2.7%. The rating agency said in a statement that inflation in December 2018 is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in the preceding month due to dissipation of deflationary pressures from the transport fuel component.

    The price of RON95 petrol fell 3.3% year on year in December, after a 4.5% drop in November.

    On that note, overall inflation is envisaged to come in at 1.0% in 2018.

    As for 2019, RAM Ratings has revised its headline inflation projection downwards to 2.0%, mainly due to changing expectations on global oil prices, which are increasingly pointing to a lower average range of US$60-US$65 (RM248-RM269) per barrel for 2019.

    RAM head of research Kristina Fong said the rating firm’s sensitivity analysis indicates that for every US$5/barrel move in the price of Brent crude, headline inflation potentially changes 0.3 percentage point.

    “The move back to the weekly Automated Pricing Mechanism for pump prices – effective January 2019 – is not expected to exert any significant downward pressure on inflation given the short period it will be in place ahead of the anticipated targeted fuel subsidy mechanism to be implemented in second quarter 2019.

    “Moreover, global oil prices are expected to trend a little higher compared to the start of the year, An escalation in oil (petrol) prices beyond RM2.20/litre will trigger the use of subsidies to maintain this ceiling. This will also contain inflationary pressure,” she added.

    The Department of Statistics released the December inflation data yesterday.