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  • Experts warn of risks to premature economic reopening

    Experts warn of risks to premature economic reopening

    Reopening the economy is necessary but any untimely decision amid low vaccination rates and high contagion risks could stymie the country’s efforts to defeat Covid-19, experts warn.

    “The premature lifting of the lockdown and reopening the economy while the full vaccination rate remains low, new infections and fatality rates are still soaring and the health system is overburdened may even endanger the economy and people’s lives more badly,” Nguyen Minh Cuong, principal country economist at the Asian Development Bank said.

    But the country stands at a crossroads since lengthening strict social distancing is likely to inflict further socio-economic costs and endanger its medium- and long-term growth prospects, he told VnExpress International in an emailed statement.

    Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Ho Chi Minh City leaders have spoken about letting economic activities resume gradually and how the lockdown “cannot go on forever.”

    Vietnam has been struggling in its Covid-19 fight since the end of April when a fourth wave began and infected nearly 609,000 people and killed over 15,000.

    HCMC, the largest city and major manufacturing and exporting hub, has imposed strict social distancing for over two months but still thousands of new cases are being found every day.

    This is why analysts are reluctant about resuming economic activities now.

    “It is complicated to find the perfect moment to reopen the economy,” Tim Evans, CEO of HSBC Vietnam, said.

    The risks of doing this too early at a time when vaccination is not up to optimum speed and the medical system is overwhelmed could lead to additional Covid cases resulting in a further increase in mortality rates, he said.

    Other experts concurred.

    “In our view, reopening the economy, especially in the epicenter HCMC, is a risky move,” Jason Yek, senior Asia country risk analyst at market research company Fitch Solutions, said.

    The rate of full vaccination in Vietnam is low, and reopening before the outbreak has been suppressed would possibly elicit a lukewarm response from consumers, he said.

    Vietnam has vaccinated 24 percent of its population, but only 5.2 percent have received two doses.

    The country has received 29.8 million doses of vaccine, or only one-fifth of its target of 150 million doses to vaccinate 70 percent of the population.

    This is why a premature opening risks a surge in infections which would overwhelm the healthcare system and could force the government to tighten restrictions again, Yek said.

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  • Doors open wider for Vietnam exports to the US

    Doors open wider for Vietnam exports to the US

    A large demand for agricultural produce and electronics products as well as rising e-commerce potential give Vietnamese exporters greater opportunities in the U.S. market, experts say.

    The U.S. is a market with much potential for Vietnamese companies, especially as Vietnam has been able to keep the Covid-19 pandemic under control, said Nguyen Huu Tien, director of the HCMC Investment and Trade Promotion Centre.

    The U.S. was Vietnam’s largest export market in the first four months with the value of shipments surging 50 percent year-on-year to $30.3 billion.

    Top export categories included machinery and equipment, textile and garment, and computers and electronics.

    Last year, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. ranked third in Asia after China and Japan.

    Ken D. Duong, director of international law firm TDL, said that traditional categories such as agriculture produce and fisheries were posting strong figures despite the pandemic.

    U.S. companies have stopped purchasing some hardwood products from China and are looking for alternative markets, he said, adding that last year, many Vietnamese companies were able to take advantage of this and got large orders.

    Many Vietnamese-Americans are looking for suppliers in Vietnam to export products to the U.S., he added.

    There are a lot of opportunities for electronics export because a number of American and Taiwanese firms have established factories in Vietnam to research and develop internet of things products.

    “There are signals that indicate that Vietnam could become a hub for researching and manufacturing advanced tech products,” Duong said.

    Amazon Global Selling Wednesday announced a new campaign in partnership with the Vietnam e-Commerce and Digital Economy Agency (iDEA) that would help Vietnamese sellers sell more products on Amazon.

    But other experts said there were challenges that Vietnamese exporters face, such as trademarks. They cited the latest example of a Vietnamese rice brand, ST25, which won an international contest as the world’s best variety, being trademarked by a U.S. company.

    Duong said that usually it costs $1,000-1,800 to register a trademark in the U.S. Around 50 percent of mid-sized Vietnamese companies in the U.S. register their brand and the ratio is just 10 percent for small firms.

    Vietnamese suppliers need to understand U.S. regulations on intellectual property to step up in the global supply chain, he added.

    Dang Hoang Hai, head of the iDEA, said that as many Vietnamese sellers are reluctant to export their products to the U.S. via e-commerce, his organization will provide more training to help hundreds of small and medium companies sell their products on Amazon.

    Although there has been speculation about the U.S. rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), U.S. officials have said that this would not happen in the short term.

    Mary Tarnowka, executive director of American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam, cited a report by a Fulbright University professor to show that U.S. President Joe Biden will not consider signing another free trade agreement until the middle of his term.

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