Shares of Sa Sa International are up 27% in the past month as Chinese tourist arrivals to Hong Kong showed signs of a recovery – but it may not yet be time to put the marked down cosmetics retailer in the shopping basket.
Once a market darling, Sa Sa has sagged 70% from its peak in September 2013 as rising online competition and a fall in the number of mainland Chinese shoppers visiting its ubiquitous neon pink stores squeezed sales. Slumping sentiment and spending among Hong Kong consumers hasn’t helped. The cosmetics retailer released its full year results on Thursday and it wasn’t pretty: earnings plummeted 54% year-on-year as revenues slipped and margins were squeezed. However, there is stirring interest in Sa Sa as a recovery play as the slump in Chinese visitors appears to be waning, while investors also get paid to wait for a turnaround given the juicy 8% yield. But the stock may have rallied too hard, too fast as a recovery in mainland visitors – if it happens – doesn’t necessarily mean fuller tills at stores, while pressures on margins abound.
Sa Sa’s yearly revenues suffered their first decline since its public listing in 1997. The retailer reported a 12.8% fall to HKD9 billion as same store sales in Hong Kong and Macau, which account for around 80% of revenues, fell 11.8%. While the volume of transactions decreased around 4%, a 10% fall in the average value of each transaction hurt the top line. Mainland tourists made around 8% fewer transactions and on average spent 11% less on each transaction. The weaker spending by mainland shoppers reflects the growing number of tourists from smaller cities who have lower disposable incomes. Additionally, restrictions limiting Shenzhen residents to only one visit to Hong Kong a week have shrunk the number of day trippers who account for the bulk of Sa Sa’s mainland clientele.
But it’s not just mainland tourists who are weighing on Sa Sa’s top line: local shoppers, who account for around 48% of transactions, are also spending less amid Hong Kong’s weak economy. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level since 2013, while retail sales tumbled nearly 8% year-on-year in April after reporting the steepest plunge since 1999 in February. A weak finance sector and falling property prices threaten to further depress consumer sentiment spending. Transaction volumes for local shoppers slipped roughly 1% for Sa Sa last year, while average spending decreased just over 3%.
Morgan Stanley analyst Edward Lui expects near term trends “to stay challenging” for Hong Kong retailers and expects Sa Sa to record a double digit decline in same store sales this year. The analyst said Sa Sa, as well as jeweler Chow Tai Fook, have the “greatest de-rating and earnings risks.” Lui has an underweight rating on Sa Sa with a HKD1.40 a share target price, which is 51% below the stock’s current level of HKD2.85 a share. Sa Sa shares also aren’t cheap: they trade at 19 times forward earnings, which is above a five-year average of 17 times and compares to 14 times for fast food chain Fairwood Holdings, which is geared to benefit from a weak economy.
Competition between Sa Sa and rivals like Bonjour Holdings has also intensified. More aggressive promotions and discounts lowered Sa Sa’s net profit margin to roughly 7% last year from around 12% the prior year. Staffing costs as a share of sales also increased as the company forked out more remuneration to retain staff. Macquarie analyst Linda Huang is concerned about the outlook for profits as “margins will likely be under pressure” due to high rent, labor costs and promotional spending. Huang has an underperform rating on Sa Sa with an HKD1.80 a share target price. A weak Hong Kong property market could lower rent for the retailer, argues Core Pacific-Yamaichi analyst Kevin Tam. Tam – who is the lone analyst with a buy rating on Sa Sa – expects an 11% decline in rent this year to be a major earnings driver. However, Sa Sa management has indicated savings on leases would show up in total rent costs only over “an extended time of several financial years.”
While Sa Sa has diversified away from Hong Kong and Macau with stores in Southeast Asia and mainland China, its Malaysia business was the only bright spot last year. Sa Sa has also hedged itself against the squeeze of ecommerce on brick and mortar retailers with its sasa.com portal but growth has been disappointing compared to dedicated online retailers such as Vipshop.
