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Tag: forecast

  • Vietnam’s Economic Surge: Standard Chartered Uplifts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 9.5%

    Vietnam’s Economic Surge: Standard Chartered Uplifts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 9.5%

    Standard Chartered has increased its projection for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 to 9.5%, a considerable increase from its previous estimate of 7.2%. This revision comes on the heels of Vietnam’s robust economic performance in the first half of the year, with key growth sectors showing continuing momentum. Moreover, the bank expects this positive trend to extend into 2027, anticipating a GDP growth of 11%. This revision signifies one of the most substantial forecast upgrades the bank has made for Vietnam in recent times.

    Forecast Adjustments and Economic Stability

    In tandem with this increased growth projection, Standard Chartered has decreased its inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 3.3% respectively. This reduction comes as the bank predicts a further easing of price pressures. Consequently, the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to keep its policy rates unchanged, maintaining a balance between supporting economic growth and ensuring macroeconomic stability.

    According to Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, Vietnam has shown significant resilience and adaptability during the first half of 2026. Growth has exceeded expectations, largely due to the robust recovery of the manufacturing-processing industry, services, and investment sectors, as well as the beneficial impact of pro-growth policy measures.

    Outlook for the Future

    Despite existing global economic uncertainties and inflationary risks, Vietnam is stepping into the second half of the year with a solid foundation. Continuous domestic demand, persistent investment in infrastructure, enhanced production capacity, and ongoing economic restructuring are expected to cultivate a balanced and sustainable growth model. These factors are predicted to support the nation’s long-term development goals.

    With its revised 9.5% growth projection for 2026, Standard Chartered stands as one of the most optimistic international institutions regarding Vietnam’s economic future. Other international financial institutions have also echoed this upbeat outlook. This growing confidence in the resilience and prospects of the Vietnamese economy emphasizes the positive direction the country is headed in, despite varying forecasts. The principal factors supporting this economic expansion include recovering domestic demand, sustained investment inflows, pro-growth policies, and accelerated infrastructure development. However, external uncertainties still necessitate careful monitoring to ensure sustainable growth.

    Questions & Answers

    What is Standard Chartered’s revised economic growth projection for Vietnam in 2026?
    The bank has revised its growth projection to 9.5%, up from its previous forecast of 7.2%.

    What factors have contributed to Vietnam’s positive economic performance in the first half of 2026?
    The robust recovery of the manufacturing-processing industry, services, and investment sectors, along with the positive impact of pro-growth policy measures, have contributed to this positive performance.

    What are the main drivers expected to support the Vietnamese economy’s expansion in the coming years?
    Factors such as recovering domestic demand, sustained investment inflows, pro-growth policies, and accelerated infrastructure development are expected to remain the principal drivers supporting the country’s economic expansion.

  • Cambodia Adjusts 2026 Growth Forecast Down to 4.2% Amid Global Crises and Climate Change Impacts

    Cambodia Adjusts 2026 Growth Forecast Down to 4.2% Amid Global Crises and Climate Change Impacts

    The Cambodian Government has revised its economic growth expectation for 2026, dropping it from an earlier prediction of 5% to a more conservative 4.2%. Prime Minister Hun Manet, in the recently published medium-term fiscal framework for 2027-2029, cited a number of global crises as the reasons for this adjustment.

    Challenging Global Crises

    The Prime Minister indicated that Cambodia is undergoing a transition in the midst of prolonged global difficulties. This includes the rise in protectionism, trade conflicts, geopolitical and geoeconomic strife, and escalating impacts from climate change and natural disasters.

    The report also highlighted three consecutive storms that struck Cambodia in the past two years, causing significant damage. Additional challenges noted include the reciprocal tariff policies rolled out during former US President Donald Trump’s tenure, the ongoing border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand, and the turmoil in the Middle East which has led to an energy crisis.

    Future Economic Forecast

    Amid these struggles, the growth forecast for 2027 has also been decreased from 5.5% to 5%, as the economic drag from 2026 is anticipated to carry over into the following year. However, the government remains optimistic that growth will bounce back to an average of approximately 5.5% between 2028 and 2029. This projection is based on the expectation that socio-economic activities will gradually recover to pre-crisis levels.

    Questions & Answers

    **What is Cambodia’s revised economic growth forecast for 2026?**
    The Cambodian Government has reduced its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2%, down from an initial projection of 5%.

    **What are some of the global crises affecting Cambodia’s economy?**
    Cambodia’s economy is being impacted by a series of global crises, including escalating protectionism, trade wars, geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, and the increasing effects of climate change and natural disasters.

    **What is the anticipated economic growth for Cambodia beyond 2026?**
    Despite lower forecasts for 2026 and 2027, the Cambodian Government expects that economic growth will rebound to an average of around 5.5% from 2028 to 2029 as socio-economic activities gradually return to pre-crisis conditions.

  • Commerzbank to Slash 3000 Jobs by 2030, Boosts Profit Forecast Amid Restructuring Plan

    Commerzbank to Slash 3000 Jobs by 2030, Boosts Profit Forecast Amid Restructuring Plan

    In an effort to reassure shareholders of its sustainability as a standalone entity, Commerzbank has unveiled a strategic plan that includes significant job reductions and lofty profit goals. The blueprint, which was shared last Friday, anticipates a layoff of approximately 3,000 additional full-time employees throughout the corporation by the year 2030. This is an extension to the cost-cutting measures previously revealed.

    Refocusing on Future-Oriented Sectors

    Simultaneously, the bank is intending to generate employment opportunities within emerging and forward-looking sectors. As of late 2025, Commerzbank’s global full-time workforce was just shy of 40,000.

    In a previous announcement made in February 2025, Commerzbank had outlined its intention to eliminate 3,900 full-time roles by the conclusion of 2027, with the majority of these cutbacks occurring in Germany. During that announcement, the bank also expressed its intent to increase staffing levels at its Polish branch, mBank, as well as at its Asian locations.

    Boost in Profit during First Quarter

    Commerzbank also released its earnings for the first quarter. The operating profit for the initial three months of 2026 escalated to approximately 1.36 billion euro, while the net profit climbed to 913 million euro. Both of these figures saw a growth of roughly 10 percent compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

    Commerzbank, as part of its updated strategy, now anticipates higher profits for 2026 than initially projected. The bank is aiming for a net profit of at least 3.4 billion euro, an increase of 200 million euro from the previously stated goal. The bank’s ambitious profit targets for subsequent years are 4.6 billion euro by 2028, and 5.9 billion euro by 2030.

    In 2025, the bank’s profit reached 2.6 billion euro, narrowly missing the record high of 2024, when the bank earned nearly 2.7 billion euro, despite the substantial costs associated with the ongoing restructuring program.

    This updated strategy and the raised profit targets can be interpreted as a reaction to criticisms levelled by Andrea Orcel, CEO of UniCredit, who recently described Commerzbank’s operating performance over the past few years as being beneath par.

    Questions & Answers

    How many job reductions does Commerzbank’s new strategic plan anticipate?
    The plan anticipates a layoff of approximately 3,000 additional full-time employees by 2030, apart from the previously announced cutbacks.

    What are Commerzbank’s profit targets as per the updated strategy?
    The bank is aiming for a net profit of at least 3.4 billion euro in 2026, 4.6 billion euro by 2028, and 5.9 billion euro by 2030.

    How has Commerzbank responded to criticisms regarding its recent performance?
    Commerzbank has responded with an updated strategy, which includes significant job reductions and lofty profit goals, to reassure shareholders of its sustainability as a standalone entity.

  • Unprecedented GDP Growth Spurs HSBC to Boost Hong Kong Economic Forecast

    Unprecedented GDP Growth Spurs HSBC to Boost Hong Kong Economic Forecast

    Hong Kong’s robust economic performance earlier this year has culminated in an improved financial forecast from HSBC, despite minimal influence from the Middle East conflict.

    Bright Economic Outlook and Impacts of Conflict

    HSBC’s Global Investment Research revised its GDP growth predictions for 2026 and 2027 from 2.7% and 2.8% to 3.8% and 3% respectively. This adjustment comes on the heels of Hong Kong recording a first-quarter GDP growth rate of 5.9%, a figure near a five-year high. Essential factors contributing to this positive outlook include the minimal direct effects of the Middle East conflict and evidence of domestic economic stability.

    Hong Kong’s economy is primarily service-based. Although most energy is imported, a significant amount originates from mainland China, while only a minor portion is sourced from the Middle East. To offset the potential impacts, the government has introduced direct support measures such as fuel subsidies and tunnel toll concessions. In the midst of increased uncertainty, Hong Kong’s reputation as a safe haven may draw in capital inflows seeking stability.

    Moreover, the surge in demand stimulated by advancements in AI and an uptick in trade with mainland China are expected to provide a safety net for trade activities this year. However, if the Middle East conflict continues and suppresses global demand, this could lead to potential economic risks.

    Recovery and Growth within Domestic Markets

    As for the domestic landscape, the residential property market’s recovery is creating positive wealth effects, and improvements in the labor market indicate signs of amplified consumption.

    HSBC predicts this year’s consumption to gravitate more towards discretionary goods and services. The swift enactment of major government projects such as the Northern Metropolis, in addition to AI-driven demand, will bolster investment activity. Fiscal support through infrastructure bonds and a relatively favorable monetary setting should also aid in maintaining investment momentum.

    Questions & Answers

    What factors contributed to the increased GDP growth predictions for Hong Kong?
    The first-quarter GDP growth reaching almost a five-year peak and the limited direct impact from the Middle East conflict contributed to the revised GDP growth predictions.

    How has the government aided in mitigating the impact of the Middle East conflict on the Hong Kong economy?
    The government has introduced direct support measures such as fuel subsidies and tunnel toll concessions.

    What is expected to drive consumption in Hong Kong this year?
    The consumption shift is predicted to lean towards discretionary goods and services, driven by the positive wealth effects from the recovering residential property market and improvements in the labor market.

  • Shopify Projects Robust Quarterly Revenue Amidst Resilient Merchant Base And Steady Consumer Demand

    Shopify Projects Robust Quarterly Revenue Amidst Resilient Merchant Base And Steady Consumer Demand

    Shopify, the renowned Canadian e-commerce platform, has projected a positive outlook for its quarterly revenue. This forecast comes amidst no apparent reduction in consumer demand and the impressive resilience of merchants on the platform despite prevailing tariff pressures. This uplifting news resulted in a significant 20% increase in the company’s share values.

    Throughout early August, Shopify’s merchant base demonstrated remarkable fortitude, maintaining the steady growth observed in the April-June period. This resilience contributed to a 31% boost in the second quarter’s revenue.

    These results help to alleviate some of the anxieties investors have due to the fluctuating trade policies of the current US administration. These policies have left many retailers uncertain about several aspects of their business, including demand, production, sourcing, and operating costs.

    Addressing these concerns, Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify’s CFO, reassured investors during a post-earnings call. He affirmed that demand from the US, both inbound and outbound, has remained steady. Furthermore, he noted that the platform had experienced growth across all merchant segments during the second quarter.

    Hoffmeister also highlighted the strong performance of sellers with an annual gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding US$50 million and those below the $2 million mark. In terms of pricing strategy, Shopify reported that many merchants have increased their prices, although no specific details regarding the extent of these hikes were provided.

    Despite the ongoing disruptive tariff situation, Shopify’s resilience and adaptation seems to be the current narrative. As noted by Third Bridge analyst Charlie Miner, greater clarity is emerging regarding consumer reactions, and Shopify is unlikely to be adversely affected.

    Shopify’s projections for the third quarter anticipate a revenue increase in the mid to high twenties percentage range. This estimate exceeds analyst predictions of a 21.54% rise, as compiled by LSEG.

    Additionally, Shopify’s ongoing investments in artificial intelligence-powered features are proving advantageous. These features aid retailers in various tasks, such as developing store websites, generating images, and collating sales data.

    Questions & Answers

    What is the projected revenue increase for Shopify in the third quarter?
    Shopify projects a mid to high twenties percentage increase in revenue for the third quarter.

    How are Shopify’s merchants responding to the ongoing tariff situation?
    Despite tariff pressures, merchants on Shopify’s platform have shown resilience, with many even increasing their prices.

    What investments has Shopify made to support retailers?
    Shopify has invested in artificial intelligence-powered features that assist retailers with tasks such as creating store websites, producing images, and gathering sales data.

  • South Korea’s Mobile Service Revenue Set to Skyrocket to $24.5 Billion by 2029!

    South Korea’s Mobile Service Revenue Set to Skyrocket to $24.5 Billion by 2029!

    South Korea’s mobile service revenue is on an upward trajectory, poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%. This rise will see revenues escalate from USD 21.6 billion in 2024 to USD 24.5 billion by 2029, according to the latest report from GlobalData.

    Driving Forces Behind Growth

    The anticipated growth is primarily driven by the ongoing expansion of mobile data services and a significant surge in machine-to-machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) connections. These connections are projected to grow at an impressive CAGR of 8.4% during the same period, spurred by widespread adoption of IoT applications in sectors such as asset management, fleet tracking, and telehealth services. In a world where your washing machine could soon be sending you reminders about laundry day, this trend certainly adds intrigue to the industry landscape.

    Challenges in Mobile Voice Services

    However, it’s not all rosy in the telecom world. The report details a decline in mobile voice service revenue, expected to decrease at a rate of 4.9% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. This downturn is largely attributed to a growing preference for over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms and a decreasing average revenue per user (ARPU), signaling a paradigm shift in how consumers communicate.

    The Rise of Mobile Data Usage

    On a brighter note, mobile data service revenue is set to rise at a robust 5.4% CAGR. This growth is buoyed by increasing mobile internet subscriptions and a broader acceptance of premium 5G plans. Monthly data usage is anticipated to more than double, jumping from 16.8 GB in 2024 to 35.9 GB in 2029, as users indulge in video streaming and social media, leaving traditional voice service in the dust.

    5G Revolutionizing Connectivity

    GlobalData also points to a rapid acceleration in 5G adoption in the years ahead, driven by consumer demand for lightning-fast connectivity and increasingly affordable 5G plans. The South Korean government’s ambitious 5G+ Strategy aims to secure over 90% mobile user access to 5G by 2026, promoting hefty investments and regulatory reforms while establishing testbeds for cutting-edge services such as smart factories, autonomous vehicles, smart healthcare, and smart cities. By 2029, 5G subscriptions are forecasted to account for nearly 89% of total mobile connections in the nation, heralding a new era of connectivity.

    Business Landscape Shifts

    In this evolving landscape, SK Telecom is expected to maintain its top position in mobile subscriptions through 2029, bolstered by substantial investments in 5G and IoT technologies. The operator is also broadening its focus on enterprise M2M/IoT solutions to facilitate digital transformation across various sectors.

    As consumer data usage continues to soar and the demand for smart solutions from enterprises accelerates, telecommunications companies are reinventing themselves from traditional connectivity providers to key players in a burgeoning digital ecosystem.

    Questions & Answers

    What is driving the growth of mobile service revenue in South Korea?
    The growth is driven by the expansion of mobile data services and a significant increase in M2M and IoT subscriptions, with these connections expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% by 2029.

    How is mobile voice service revenue expected to change?
    Mobile voice service revenue is projected to decline at a CAGR of 4.9% due to a shift towards over-the-top communication platforms and a decrease in average revenue per user.

    What role does 5G play in the future of mobile services in South Korea?
    5G is set to revolutionize connectivity, with government-backed strategies aiming for over 90% mobile user access to 5G by 2026, leading to an expected 89% of total mobile connections being 5G by 2029.

  • Apple forecasts faster sales growth, despite glum economy

    Apple forecasts faster sales growth, despite glum economy

    Apple on Thursday said parts shortages are easing and that demand for iPhones is unceasing despite consumers tightening other spending, helping it top Wall Street expectations and forecast faster sales growth ahead.

    The Silicon Valley giant’s shares rose 3.5% after hours following the release of the results.

    Though macroeconomic indicators around the world are turning negative, Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri told Reuters there had been no slowdown in demand for iPhones, the company’s biggest source of revenue.

    Phone sales in the fiscal third quarter rose 3% to $40.7 billion, when Wall Street had braced for a 3% decline. By contrast, the overall global smartphone market dropped 9% during the just-ended quarter, according to Canalys data.

    Apple’s loyal and relatively affluent customer base has enabled it to weather consumer spending dips better than other brands in the past, and the company’s latest quarterly results suggest a similar pattern emerging.

    Canalys Research analyst Runar Bjorhovde said, “Apple in that sense has a certain robustness that will allow it to be impacted less than a lot of its competitors.”

    The slumping economy is hurting sales of advertising, accessories and home products, Apple’s Maestri said in an interview, calling the units “pockets of weakness.”

    “Fortunately, we have a very broad portfolio, so we know we’re going to be able to navigate that,” he added.

    The results show Apple’s advertising business, which includes selling ads alongside news articles and app store search results, is vulnerable to marketing cuts just the same as rivals Snap and Meta Platforms.

    Parts shortages will continue to hamper Mac and iPad sales, Maestri said, though the impact has been easing. They cost Apple under $4 billion in sales in the quarter ended June 25, less than it had forecast. Maestri said the company expects the hit to diminish further in the current quarter.

    But Apple risks joining rivals in amassing an unsellable stockpile of tablets and PCs if more customers than expected hold off purchases due to rising inflation and interest rates.

    “In terms of testing the demand, you can’t really test the demand unless you have the supply,” Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook told analysts on Thursday. “And we were so far from that last quarter that we have an estimate of what we believe demand was. But it is an estimate.”

  • Nissan Triples Profit Forecast On Strong Quarterly Results

    Nissan Triples Profit Forecast On Strong Quarterly Results

    Nissan tripled its full-year net profit forecast on Tuesday as it rebounded from the impact of the pandemic with a strong quarterly performance, saying it expected to withstand challenges including the global chip crunch and rising raw material prices. The firm now projects 180 billion yen ($1.6 billion) in net profit for the fiscal year to March 2022, up from an earlier estimate of 60 billion yen. Nissan’s last yearly net profit in the black was in 2018-19.

    For the three months to September, Nissan logged a 54.1 billion yen net profit, reversing a 44.4 billion yen net loss for the same period last year. “Our strong results are the outcome of diligent financial management, improved quality of sales and continuing product offensive. This has helped us withstand several headwinds,” Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida said in a statement.

    The firm has faced a series of trials in recent years, including weak demand during Covid-19 lockdowns and the fallout from the arrest of former boss Carlos Ghosn, now a fugitive in Lebanon.

    On Tuesday, the company revised down its full-year sales forecast to 8.8 trillion yen from 9.75 trillion yen, partially because of the impact of a semiconductor shortage plaguing auto firms worldwide. Supply disruptions have compounded the mismatch between demand for and availability of chips, a key component in modern cars.

    Nissan plans to slash its production by around 30 percent from its original plan in October and November because of the chip shortage, public broadcaster NHK reported.

  • Dark Sky announces acquisition by Apple and discontinuation of Android support

    Dark Sky announces acquisition by Apple and discontinuation of Android support

    Popular weather app Dark Sky made a huge announcement, and the forecast for Android users doesn’t look good. The company revealed that it has been acquired by Apple, causing some major changes for users in the near future.

    Dark Sky, which describes itself as a hyperlocal weather app, made its name on down-to-the-minute precipitation forecasts based on a number of sources, including crowdsourced data from users who opt-in. Receiving widespread acclaim, the app quickly amassed over 1 million Android users, establishing itself as a formidable force in the weather service market.

    Following the acquisition by the iPhone maker, announced in a company blog post, Dark Sky reportedly won’t go through any major branding changes (no iDark Sky for now), but support for Android will be discontinued on July 1, 2020.

    A complete drop of support for a large portion of users is kind of a big deal, especially for Android users like me, but the company also announced that all active subscribers will be given a refund at the date of discontinuation, which will also affect Wear OS and web clients of the service.

    Given Dark Sky’s reputation as the best weather app around, it’s sad to see it go as far as the Play Store is concerned. But based on the app’s #1 status in the Weather category of the iOS App Store, Dark Sky will likely still enjoy much popularity on the other side of the fence.

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  • Deloitte forecasts forgettable year in Retail

    Deloitte forecasts forgettable year in Retail

    2019 is shaping up to be a ‘gap year’ for Australian retail, according to Deloitte’s latest Retail Forecast for the year ahead. Retail turnover is expected to slip from 2.2 per cent during 2018 to a more modest 1.6 per cent, before lifting back up to 2.2 per cent in 2020, according to Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens.

    “It’s fair to say retailers have only survived the last few years because consumers have lived beyond their means. But that ship has now sailed,” Rumbens said.

    “Labour income growth is good, but not good enough yet to avoid some damage to retail growth in the absence of an excuse to run down savings further. And when overall net wealth is heading downwards, it provides a fairly strong incentive for people to be more prudent with their cash.”

    This isn’t likely to affect every facet of the retail sector equally, with businesses that offer more essential items, such as supermarkets, unlikely to feel the downturn in the same way as those that offer bigger ticket items such as furniture. Retailers that have some flexibility in the stock that they carry, such as department stores, may wish to re-evaluate and refocus on more essential items, as discretionary spend continues to tighten. However, it doesn’t have to be all doom and gloom for retailers, as such a year affords the opportunity to make calculated changes to prepare for a predicted upturn in sales in 2020. One of the key things retailers can do over this ‘gap year’ is to analyse and improve the link they have with their customers, as well as the relationship they have with their employees and supply chains.

    “There has been… an increase in focus on payments to staff and suppliers, are there issues there that retailers need to investigate to put themselves on a more sound footing going forward?” Rumbens said.

    “Retailers should investigate activities which will support the business so that it’s better able to react when sales growth does move back up to a faster pace.”

    One way retailers can offset some of the strain of operating in the Australian retail environment is to utilise a digital international expansion into other markets.

    “With digital commerce, we’ve clearly seen a lot of great overseas presence in Australia, and I think there’s a lot that Australian retailers can explore there,” Rumbens said.

    “You’ve got quite strong economic and consumer spending growth through China, and a significant market in India. These are not activities to be undertaken lightly, but if you consider the 700 million internet users in China… is it time to start considering that market?”

    Rumbens also believes the Federal Government could offer a stimulus to the Australian public, which could provide support for retailers at a time when growth is slow.

    “There is a strong prospect of some government stimulus coming through and supporting the sector mid-year,” he said.

    “It’s likely to happen, but we’ll have a fair idea in the next couple of weeks when the Federal Budget is handed down.”

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  • SEA e-commerce market to grow at 23 per cent

    SEA e-commerce market to grow at 23 per cent

    Southeast Asia’s online retail market is expected to reach US$53 billion in the next five years, according to a recent analysis by Forrester Consulting. The report anticipated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the industry of 23 per cent over the period, given the momentum of smartphone penetration and fast-growing economies in the region. Currently the area’s largest online retail market is Indonesia – which took 41 per cent of Southeast Asian online sales last year – followed by the Philippines with its strong base of social media users.

    The report identified fashion as the main driver of growth in Southeast Asia’s online retail market, while consumer electronics retains the greatest market share at 24.2 per cent. Fashion and cosmetics brands launched online are likely to be a more regular marketplace feature in the near future.

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  • RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Ratings, which expects inflation to inch up to 0.3% in December 2018 from 0.2% in the previous month, has revised its full-year headline inflation forecast for 2019 to 2.0% from 2.7%. The rating agency said in a statement that inflation in December 2018 is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in the preceding month due to dissipation of deflationary pressures from the transport fuel component.

    The price of RON95 petrol fell 3.3% year on year in December, after a 4.5% drop in November.

    On that note, overall inflation is envisaged to come in at 1.0% in 2018.

    As for 2019, RAM Ratings has revised its headline inflation projection downwards to 2.0%, mainly due to changing expectations on global oil prices, which are increasingly pointing to a lower average range of US$60-US$65 (RM248-RM269) per barrel for 2019.

    RAM head of research Kristina Fong said the rating firm’s sensitivity analysis indicates that for every US$5/barrel move in the price of Brent crude, headline inflation potentially changes 0.3 percentage point.

    “The move back to the weekly Automated Pricing Mechanism for pump prices – effective January 2019 – is not expected to exert any significant downward pressure on inflation given the short period it will be in place ahead of the anticipated targeted fuel subsidy mechanism to be implemented in second quarter 2019.

    “Moreover, global oil prices are expected to trend a little higher compared to the start of the year, An escalation in oil (petrol) prices beyond RM2.20/litre will trigger the use of subsidies to maintain this ceiling. This will also contain inflationary pressure,” she added.

    The Department of Statistics released the December inflation data yesterday.

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  • Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow down this year though it will remain a regional outperformer, according to leading global analysts. Fitch Solutions, an arm of Fitch Ratings, said in a report released Wednesday it expects Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow to 6.5 percent in 2019 in line with a wider trend of slowing global growth, but added the country would remain one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia.

    The economy grew by 7.1 percent last year, the fastest rate of expansion in 11 years, according to official data. This was well above the 6.5-6.7 percent target set by the National Assembly.

    “Its increasing openness and reliance on foreign investment suggests that it is unlikely to be spared from the global growth slowdown arising from rising trade protectionism and tighter financial conditions.

    “Although we believe that Vietnam’s manufacturing sector and economy will continue to outperform the region over the coming quarters, growth is likely to face headwinds stemming from rising global trade disruptions and tightening financial conditions, which will negatively impact global economic growth and risk sentiment,” Fitch Solutions stated.

    The World Bank Group in its bi-annual report on Vietnam issued last month said the country’s GDP growth is likely to slow from 6.8 percent in 2018 to 6.6 percent this year as the global economy weakens.

    Weaker global demand for exports and reduced investment and trade flows as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates are other risks for Vietnam’s economy, Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s lead economist for Vietnam, said.

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a forecast released last month for the East Asia and Pacific region projected Vietnam’s growth at 6.8 percent for 2019, slightly lower than the 6.9 percent it expected for 2018. These rates are the second highest in the forecast behind only India’s.

    Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, up 9.1 percent year-on-year. With exports rising by 13.8 percent to $244.72 billion and imports at $237.51 billion, the country achieved its highest ever trade surplus of $7.21 billion last year.

    Fitch Solutions said in 2019 the manufacturing sector would remain a key economic growth driver and outperform the region.

    Vietnam has grown to become a manufacturing powerhouse, particularly in electronics, due to its relatively cheap and large workforce, geographical advantages, attractive tax breaks, stable political environment, and open trade policies.

    The opening up of the Vietnamese economy also came at an opportune time as China began to shift away from lower-end and export-oriented manufacturing to focus on the domestic economy.

    Vietnam’s continued commitment to economic liberalisation will also attract foreign manufacturers seeking to leverage its preferential trade deals.

    The country is a signatory to 10 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs), with six more trade pacts in the offing, including the highly touted Vietnam-EU FTA.

    Fitch Solutions added that trade tensions between China and the US would continue to drive up costs for manufacturers operating in China, pushing companies to outsource to its neighbor Vietnam, which is more competitive in terms of wages.

  • Telenor Pakistan Collaborates with LMKT to Provide IBM’s Accurate Weather Forecast to Local Farmers

    Telenor Pakistan Collaborates with LMKT to Provide IBM’s Accurate Weather Forecast to Local Farmers

    Telenor Pakistan, continuing its efforts to transform the Pakistani agriculture sector which is the primary source of livelihood for millions of Pakistani households, has partnered with LMKT, an IBM partner, to provide farmers across the country with localized and accurate weather forecasting data. The move aims to advance agricultural practices in Pakistan and educate farmers to help them improve their yields by making informed decisions based on latest weather conditions.

    Under the agreement, LMKT will be supporting Telenor Pakistan’s goals by implementing an accurate weather forecasting solution that will provide daily and hourly weather forecast at a resolution of 1 sq km from globally recognized platforms. It’s important to note that LMKT uses IBM’s state-of-the-art technology for its weather forecast services. The partnership will enable Telenor Pakistan to drive various agronomic advisory services to stakeholders in the agriculture sector through multiple channels including mobile devices. This will empower more than 5 million Khushaal Zamindaar users across Pakistan and farmers being supported by the CAPP (Connected Agriculture Platform Punjab) program in collaboration with Government of Punjab.

    “Being Pakistan’s primary digital lifestyle partners with a strong rural presence, and movers of many industry-first initiatives aimed at transformation of Pakistani agricultural sector, we at Telenor Pakistan know what the sector’s challenges are and how to resolve them effectively,” said Durdana Achakzai, Chief Digital Officer at Telenor Pakistan. “We are pleased to have partnered with LMKT, a leading technology company specializing in geographic information systems, to deliver hyper localized weather advisory to millions of farmers across Pakistan. These advisories are critical for the success of farmers and support our ongoing efforts to empower the Pakistani kissan and modernize our agricultural practices.”

    “This agreement with Pakistan’s top telecom and digital services provider, Telenor Pakistan, underpins LMKT’s continuous efforts towards establishing a highly accurate and standardized weather forecasting system in Pakistan,” said Muhammad Haroon Sharif, Vice President GIS, Research & Development LMKT. “We are working closely with different stakeholders including Pakistan Meteorological Department and independent research groups to help various industries that rely on accurate weather forecasting data such as agriculture, renewable energy production and utilities.”

    Telenor Pakistan has been working closely with the local governments in Pakistan to empower the country’s farmers through a number of digital advisory services. In December 2015, Telenor launched Khushal Zamindar, a user-friendly Robocall, IVR and SMS content based mobile agriculture service for small-scale farmers. Following its success and the ratio of female farmers using it, Telenor Pakistan launched its women-specific version called Khushaal Aangan in December 2017. In March 2018, Telenor collaborated with the Punjab Agriculture Department to launch Connected Agriculture Platform Punjab (CAPP) to improve farmers’ access to information, financial resources, and market.

    LMKT has recently launched real-time, location-based weather information for farmers as part of a digital farming initiative with Government of Punjab’s Department of Agriculture. The initiative aims to improve farming practices in the province by communicating relevant agronomic advisories to farmers.

     

     

     

     

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  • China $1.1T eCommerce Market On Horizon

    China $1.1T eCommerce Market On Horizon

    According to a recent report from Forrester, total eCommerce revenue for China, Japan, South Korea, India and Australia is projected to nearly double in the next five years, from $733 billion in 2014 to $1.4 trillion by 2020. That same report goes on to detail how these five Asian online economies have already outpaced the combined online retail markets in the U.S. and all of Western Europe, with China and India ranking as the two largest and fastest-growing markets worldwide.

    It goes on to point out that the Chinese market already surpassed that of the U.S. in 2015, and China remains the world’s largest eCommerce market, despite seeing its overall economic growth dip below 7 percent for the first time since 2009.

    “While the days of staggering year-over-year eCommerce growth in China are gone,” wrote Lily Varon, lead author of the Forrester report and analyst for eBusiness and channel strategy, “current growth rates are solid and more consistent with other mature markets in the region, like Japan and South Korea.”

    Varon also went on to project that China would continue to lead the region’s market growth, expanding to be nine times larger than Japan’s $122 billion market in 2020 and 17 times larger than South Korea’s $65 billion.

    India is also projected to see online sales expand by five times, fueled by a rapidly increasing number of online shoppers entering the market and per capita online spend continuing to increase. However, in the case of India, Varon noted that the country’s underdeveloped logistics, “challenging” connectivity, as well as a traditionally cash-based culture, would pose significant challenges to online retailers looking to grow the online India market.

    The Forrester report goes on to note an important and defining trend across the region: the dominance of Web-only retailers, such as Rakuten and Amazon in Japan; Taobao, Tmall and Jingdon in China; and Flipkart and Snapdeal in India.

    “Consumers have flocked to online pure-plays rather than their traditional retail counterparts,” Varon wrote. “In very few markets in the region do traditional retailers hold any dominant position or even come close to competing with the Web-only giants.”

    Having noted the significance of Web-only players, Varon shared that omnichannel functionality had not been as robust in Asian markets as it had in the U.S. or U.K. This, though, was starting to shift, as more traditional retailers start to make the move towards eCommerce in Asia. Australian retailers have been forced to play catch-up, with omnichannel offerings, such as click-and-collect, being adopted by global players, like TopShop and Zara, and helping to bring omnichannel services to the local market.

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