Tag: import

  • Malaysia’s Central Bank confident of 4.8% GDP growth in 2018

    Malaysia’s Central Bank confident of 4.8% GDP growth in 2018

    Economists have mixed views on Malaysia’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth despite the central bank’s confidence the economy will expand 4.8% this year. Sunway University Business School’s Professor of Economics Dr Yeah Kim Leng expects GDP growth for 2018 to come in at 4.7% to 4.8% while growth in 2019 could be better than this year if there is sustained global demand.

    “For 2019, GDP (growth) would be closer to 5%. It may exceed that if the global economy holds up, in terms of lessening trade tension and strengthening of China’s economy,” he said.

    However, Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew said this year’s GDP growth is unlikely to hit 4.8%, as the quarterly expansions have been on the decline.

    “We had 5.4%, 4.5% and 4.4% for the first three quarters (respectively) this year. It would require substantially stronger growth than what we saw in Q3 to hit 4.8% full-year growth,” he said.

    The Malaysian economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) announced on Friday.

    Pong said the final quarter of the year does not have the tail wind that would boost consumption and expects full-year growth to come in at 4.5% to 4.6%.

    “For 2019, it is quite a challenge to forecast due to global growth slowing. We face headwinds from global growth as we are an export dependent economy. Net exports from goods and services are fluctuating,” he added.

    Pong expects GDP growth in 2019 to be similar to 2018’s, due to the unpredictability of global trade.

    Commenting on the economic performance in Q3, Yeah said it was softer than expected, which weighed down on growth momentum.

    “In the third quarter, services (sector) was good, largely due to private consumption. Growth was largely driven by the services and manufacturing sectors. As long as we can sustain the current growth momentum, a lower oil price will not affect GDP growth,” he said.

    On the supply shocks that affected growth in the first nine months, Yeah said the situation is likely to improve as the unscheduled maintenance shutdowns are over, with less disruption and gradual rebound projected.

    Pong, who expected Q3 GDP growth of 4%, said the 4.4% achieved was better than projected in view of the high base of 6.2% a year ago.

    “In Q3, the challenge was the high base in Q3 last year, when we achieved GDP growth of 6.2%. It is difficult to achieve strong year-on-year growth. Many expected Q3 to be strong due to consumption spending following the removal of Goods and Services Tax (GST).

    Retail numbers were stronger than what I expected. Consumption was stronger, therefore services was stronger,” he said.

    He noted that private consumption was stronger at 9% in Q3 (8% in Q2), which is a rare occurrence, while public consumption was also stronger at 5.2% (3.1% in Q2).

    Both Yeah and Pong cautioned that the softening in the plantation sector, especially palm oil prices, could affect smallholders’ income, which would in turn affect consumer spending.

    “If commodity prices fall, it will hit GDP. If CPO (crude palm oil) continues to be weak, it will have a negative impact on consumption. In particular, CPO and rubber. As it is now, commodity prices are weak and are still falling,” said Pong.

    However, Yeah said the impact on consumer spending would not be that large in view of the government’s spending and policies that remain supportive of consumption.

    At a media briefing last Friday, BNM governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus said private consumption expanded strongly during the quarter following the zerorisation of GST.

    “On the supply side, the services and manufacturing sectors supported growth, while the mining sector continued to be affected by production shocks.”

    She said growth could have been 0.5 to 0.7 percentage point higher in the absence of commodity shocks, as 17% of the economy (agriculture, mining and quarrying) contracted by 1.3%.

    Nonetheless, Nor Shamsiah believes the economy is on track to register a growth of 4.8% for 2018, supported by private sector activity with gradual recovery in commodity production lending support to growth.

  • Malaysia’s October vehicle sales up 0.5% to 47,273 units in Oct

    Malaysia’s October vehicle sales up 0.5% to 47,273 units in Oct

    Vehicle sales in October 2018 were up marginally 0.5% to 47,273 units from 47,041 units in the same month a year ago, according to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA). However, MAA said the sales volume in October 2018 was 51% higher than September 2018, due to availability of stocks replacing the depleted post-zero Goods and Services Tax (GST) period.

    In addition, it said year-to-date, the total industry volume (TIV) was 6% higher than the similar corresponding period in 2017.

    The sales volume for November 2018 is expected to be slightly better than October 2018 on the back of new model launches and aggressive year-end promotional campaigns, it added.

  • Will Bangladesh’s garment industry survive?

    Will Bangladesh’s garment industry survive?

    Bangladesh is battling to keep its position as the world’s second-largest exporter of clothing after China, as it faces intensifying competition from Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and now African countries like Ethiopia as global brands search for cheap labor.

    H&M, for instance, imports from an Ethiopian clothing factory it set up with Bangladeshi garment maker DBL.

    Japan’s Fast Retailing, operator of the Uniqlo casual clothing chain, is also eyeing a production base in the African country. Fast Retailing declined to comment for this story.

    The competitive pressure has sparked consolidation of what was once a mom-and-pop industry, reducing the number of factories 22% in the last five years to 4,560, according to the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers & Exporters Association.

    Those who have survived gain market share, expand overseas and aim to go public.

    The industry is an engine behind the country’s more than 6% annual growth over the past decade.

    In the year ending in June, garment exports totaled $30.6 billion, up 8.8% and accounting for 83.5% of the country’s total exports, according to BGMEA.

    The country also increased its share of global clothes exports to 6.3% in 2016 from 4.0% in 2010, according to World Trade Organization data.

    But compared with China, which has a share of 34.5%, it is still a distant second along with countries like Vietnam, Italy and India.

    Labor in Bangladesh is still cheap.

    The average monthly wage is just $101, compared with $135 for Myanmar, $170 for Cambodia, $234 for Vietnam and $518 for China, according to surveys on select cities conducted by the Japan External Trade Organization between December 2017 and March 2018.

    But there are countries with even lower wages, such as Ethiopia with a monthly average wage of $50.

    Labor costs are rising across Asia, and Bangladesh is no exception.

    With general elections looming in December, the ruling Awami League has approved a 51% wage hike for garment workers, a decision that is weighing on the country’s garment industry.

    Companies operating in special economic zones, such as Universal Menswear, typically offer a 10% wage increase every year.

    But in election years, which come every five years, the government tends to promise more generous pay hikes.

    This has put the industry in a bind, as their Western customers, faced with online competition from Amazon and others, are demanding that prices be kept under control.

    Cost increases are not limited to labor.

    Garment makers in Bangladesh have been forced to make major investments in building safety, following a factory fire that killed 117 in November 2012 and the collapse of another known as Rana Plaza in April 2013, which left more than 1,100 dead. Since then, Western brands will not buy from Bangladeshi suppliers unless they are certified to be in compliance with stringent fire and building safety regulations.

    Factories in Bangladesh have grown in a haphazard fashion, some even operating on the upper floors of office or residential buildings.

    Western apparel makers feel more secure buying from countries like China and Vietnam, where manufacturing is better planned and organized.

    Today, most of the first-tier export-producing factories have been assessed for risk and have been improved or are in the process of being brought to a comfortable standard.

    A survey by McKinsey & Co. in 2013 found Bangladesh the No. 1 alternative to China as a manufacturing location.

    ILO’s Putiainen also says that Bangladesh could benefit as production leaves China due to cost and the U.S. trade dispute.

    But he added that global apparel brands will remain vigilant about the factory conditions in Bangladesh.

    Following the Rana Plaza accident, Ananta faced more price pressure from its customers, who demanded discounts in exchange for continuing to do business.

    That is one reason why Ananta, originally a jeans maker, is so keen to diversify into higher value-added items, such as men’s suits and lingerie.

    The strategy seems to be working. Annual sales have grown 20% to 30%. Sales in the current business year are projected at $300 million, up from $250 million in the previous year. Ananta aims for $1 billion dollars in sales within the next seven years.

    DBL, another Bangladeshi garment maker with an annual turnover of $450 million, is also branching out into sports wear and lingerie, according to company head M.A. Jabbar.

    DBL currently handles only cotton fabric, but “in the coming days, we are looking at man-made fiber,” Jabbar said.

    DBL is also adding upstream processes, such as spinning, dying, printing, fabric washing and embroidery production.

    Most garment makers in Bangladesh specialize in knitting operations, with fabrics and accessories imported mostly from China. With materials costs accounting for 65% to 70% of an item’s selling price, profit margin is razor-thin.

    “If Bangladesh focuses on the knitting business, it will eventually lose to even lower-cost producers like Ethiopia,” predicts Yoshiaki Kamiyama, senior researcher at the Japan Textiles Importers Association.

    “It has to innovate. It has to develop expertise other than just knitting.”

  • Vietnam ratifies Asia-Pacific trade pact

    Vietnam ratifies Asia-Pacific trade pact

    Vietnam became the seventh country to ratify the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Monday afternoon. With its ratification, the National Assembly (NA) has assigned the task of reviewing related bills and legal enactments to the Government, the Supreme People’s Court, the Supreme People’s Procuracy and other relevant bodies.

    Once reviewed, the government agencies shall request that competent authorities amend, supplement or enact new laws in a timely manner to ensure uniformity and adherence to the roadmap for implementing commitments contained in the CPTPP.

    The Prime Minister will be responsible for approving and directing the relevant central or local agencies in implementing the CPTPP pact.

    The CPTPP is a major trade pact between Vietnam and 10 other countries that seeks to boost trade by reducing tariffs.

    Speaking at a recent NA session, Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh said that the CPTPP “will benefit Vietnam overall.”

    Because the trade pact will cover 13.5 percent of global GDP, Vietnam’s GDP will be able to grow by 1.32 percent, and its exports 4.04 percent by 2035, he added, citing a report by the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    However, the Deputy PM also enumerated challenges that Vietnam would face when joining the CPTPP.

    Domestic products such as pork and chicken might face strong competition from imported products. Other products that can have trouble competing include paper, steel and cars, Minh said.

    The other six countries to ratify the pact are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, Mexico and Singapore.

    The four countries still to ratify it are Brunei, Chile, Malaysia and Peru.

    Originally a 12-member agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the pact was thrown into limbo when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal in January 2017.

    Following the U.S. withdrawal, the remaining 11 countries renegotiated parts of the TPP, removing some of Washington’s demands. In March, they signed the revised CPTPP, also known as TPP-11.

  • Chinese white goods company Midea announces Rs 1,350 crore new plant in India

    Chinese white goods company Midea announces Rs 1,350 crore new plant in India

    Chinese consumer durables firm Midea aims to manufacture its products locally in the country by next year and is setting up a new facility in Pune at an investment of Rs 1,350 crore. “India is a strategic growth market and we expect our investments in this market to yield good growth. Considering the potential of the market we have committed over Rs 1,350 crore investment for a new facility,” Krishan Sachdev, Managing Director of Carrier Midea India and also Midea Group India region, told PTI.

    “We have a manufacturing facility at Bawal in Haryana and we are strengthening our base here with a second plant in Pune. By next year, 100 percent of our products shall be manufactured locally,” he further told PTI.

    According to a report: He further said that the company is evaluating prospects of exports from India.

    The new facility near Pune, with a technology park, will have three manufacturing units for home appliances, HVAC products and compressors and will also include a manufacturing facility for Carrier Midea India, a 60:40 joint venture between Midea and Carrier.

    The complex is likely to begin commercial operations at the beginning of 2020 and the technology park is expected to generate employment opportunities for over 2,000 people, both directly and indirectly.

    Over a period of five years, the facility will produce refrigerators, room ACs, washing machines, water purifiers, water heaters, commercial ACs and compressors.

    The company, which has been growing at a CAGR of 25 per cent over the last five years, said plans for manufacturing other home appliances categories in a phased manner have been completed.

    Sachdev further said the rupee depreciation has had an impact on their business.

    “Even though we manufacture 70-80 per cent locally, production cost has gone up because some of the components are imported,” he said.

    The company is expecting a good festive season this year with 25 per cent growth and by next year it plans to have IoT enabled product solutions for this market.

    South and East are the leading markets for the company, contributing significantly to the business, while non-metros contribute 30-40 per cent of the overall revenue.

    Midea India plans to double its footprint across the country.

    “For the RAC, which is the refrigeration and air conditioning category, and which contributes 80 per cent of revenues), we are targeting to be in around 5,000 retail outlets before next summer apart from 800 plus sales and service dealers.

    We are constantly looking to expand our reach to consumers. We are already present in more than 400 cities and towns of India,” he further said.

  • Indonesia Will Not Cut Export Levy on Palm Oil: Minister

    Indonesia Will Not Cut Export Levy on Palm Oil: Minister

    Indonesia has decided not to make any changes to export levies on palm oil, Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Darmin Nasution said on Thursday. “Even though we have had discussions on the issue, we prefer not to change the policy on this area. There is no change,” Darmin said at a press briefing in Kuala Lumpur.

    “In the long term, I cannot confirm, but in the short term there is no change,” he said.

    Darmin said at an industry conference in Bali last week that Indonesia was considering a move to reduce the levy.

    Indonesia, the world’s top producer and exporter of the edible oil, currently slaps a levy of $50 per metric ton on crude palm oil, and a range of $20-$40 for refined palm products.

    The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said last month that it had proposed cutting the palm oil export levy by $20 per ton until prices of the vegetable oil reach $700 per ton.

    The government’s reference price for crude palm oil has stayed below $750 per ton for over a year.

    Speaking in Kuala Lumpur, Darmin said Indonesia decided against the cut in export levy as such a move would result in lower prices that would benefit consuming countries, not exporters.

    The minister has in the past said Indonesia was considering reducing the levy to boost exports, which would then reduce stockpiles, but he said on Thursday that this would be achieved by boosting the use of biodiesel.

    “Our policy is to increase the utilization of biodiesel, so of course, it takes time but I believe the result will be there in six months,” Darmin said.

  • Indonesia’s Third-Quarter GDP Growth Slows as Consumer, Export Sectors Struggle

    Indonesia’s Third-Quarter GDP Growth Slows as Consumer, Export Sectors Struggle

    Indonesia’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter, losing momentum from the previous three months and pointing to tougher conditions for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, which has struggled with capital outflows and weaker exports and household spending.

    Gross domestic product expanded 5.17 percent in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said on Monday, compared with a 5.15 percent expansion expected in a Reuters poll and the second quarter’s 5.27 percent. The April-June quarter pace was the fastest since late 2013.

    The slowdown was largely due to softer household consumption in the third quarter and a negative contribution from foreign trade.

    Although the expansion was a notch faster than expected, economists warn growth may weaken further.

    “We think growth will tend to be slower in the coming future due to the impact of weakening rupiah,” said Fakhrul Fulvian, a Jakarta-based chief economist of Trimegah Securities. He expects GDP to grow 5.13 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019.

    The rupiah is down around 9 percent this year, making it the second-worst performing currency among emerging Asian markets.

    Though a weaker currency has not stoked inflation, the central bank has raised interest rates five times since May to slow capital outflows in a measure analysts say could dampen domestic demand.

    Alex Holmes, Asia analyst at Capital Economics, said growth will probably stay around 5 percent over the next couple of years.

    “A key drag on growth over the next year is likely to be the export sector,” Holmes said in a note, adding that weaker global growth and subdued commodity prices could hold back export revenues.

    Weaker coal and palm oil prices have been a drag on Indonesia’s exports, with the fall in the local currency unable to offset the hit to revenues from the softer commodity prices.

    The export sector’s contribution to GDP in the third quarter was wiped out by imports. BPS chief Suhariyanto blamed this on declining non-oil and gas commodity prices as well as slower growth in main trading partners like China and Singapore.

    Stronger investment and government spending also failed to mitigate slowing household consumption, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s GDP.

    While a trade war between the United States and China is expected to hurt economic growth in the region, most analysts say Indonesia, which is less integrated into global production supply chains than its regional peers, will not be among the worst hit.

    However, the trade war could pressure the Indonesian economy through its financial markets.

    In addition to Bank Indonesia’s rate hikes, the government has delayed infrastructure projects and raised tariffs for a wide range of consumer goods, which could further hurt growth.

    Barclays economist Rahul Bajoria said tighter fiscal policy next year also clouds growth outlook.

    While the government’s official GDP growth target this year is 5.4 percent, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati last month told the House of Representatives that 2018 growth was more likely to be 5.14 percent.

    The government projects growth at 5.3 percent for next year.

    Bank Mandiri economist Andry Asmoro said the third-quarter growth figures were unlikely to affect the central bank’s monetary stance.

    “The global challenge is still huge and prioritizing stability over growth remains relevant in the current environment,” he said.

  • Exporters fret over weaker yuan

    Exporters fret over weaker yuan

    While the weakening yuan has allowed Vietnamese importers to benefit from cheaper material costs, exporters are feeling the pinch. The yuan declined to 6.9075 per U.S. dollar on Nov. 6. The move has dragged the yuan down by almost 9 percent from the beginning of this year, the steepest drop in the last 10 years.

    A yuan was selling for VND3,327 on Monday, down from VND3,595 in February 5, according to Vietnam Customs. This means that the dong has gained 7.4 percent over the yuan in the last nine months.

    Experts say that this is an opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to import cheaper materials.

    Economist Bui Trinh said that the falling yuan will allow local businesses to gain from importing materials and machines, 90 percent of which are obtained from China.

    A Vietnamese plastic importer said as his firm pays with the weaker yuan, it has become more competitive in the market. Up to 70 percent of this company’s materials are imported from China.

    An importer of Chinese fruits said buying fruits from China is cheaper and prices in Vietnam remain the same. “So I’m making more profit.”

    But the falling yuan has created more difficulties for Vietnamese exporters.

    Bui Thanh Van, director of trade firm Van Phat Ltd., which exports produce to China, said that the falling yuan has lowered the amount of orders they used to get.

    Some Vietnamese produce are being priced higher than other countries in ASEAN, such as Thailand and Malaysia, and countries which are lowering their currency values to increase exports to China, he said.

    “The weakening of the yuan has made it a challenge to export to China.”

    Truong Dinh Hoe, general secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, said that as China has been one of Vietnam’s top export markets in the last two years, the weaker yuan would make it difficult for seafood exporters.

    China was among the top four largest importers of Vietnamese seafood in the first eight months this year, along with Japan, South Korea and the U.S., according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. These four markets accounted for over 54.1 percent of Vietnam’s total seafood exports in the same period, it said.

    The falling yuan will likely increase prices and lower orders from China, affecting the local seafood market, Hoe said.

    Experts are also worried that the weaker yuan will lead to an increasing number of Chinese goods entering Vietnam with more competitive prices, making the nation’s trade deficit even higher.

    From January to September this year, Vietnam had a trade deficit of $18.45 billion with China, its largest trade partner among over 200 countries and territories, according to Vietnam Customs.

    Trade turnover between Vietnam and China reached $93.69 billion last year, up 23.2 percent from 2016, accounting for 22 percent of Vietnam’s total trade turnover, Vietnam Customs reported. The figure is estimated to reach 100 billion this year.

  • Malaysia’s September trade surplus climbs to 10-year high

    Malaysia’s September trade surplus climbs to 10-year high

    Malaysia’s exports rebounded by 6.7% year on year (yoy) in September 2018 to RM83 billion after a dip of 0.3% in the previous month, boosting the trade surplus to a 10-year high of RM15.3 billion, the Statistics Department said. The surplus represents an 85.9% jump compared with the same month last year.

    Imports, however, registered a decrease of 2.7% yoy to RM67.8 billion. This was the second lowest import value in 2018.

    Total trade, which was valued at RM150.8 billion, increased RM3.3 billion or 2.3% in September 2018.

    The export growth was contributed by expansion in exports to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and South Korea. Lower imports were mainly from India, South Korea, Vietnam, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union.

    The main products which contributed to the expansion in exports were electrical & electronic products (+6.5%); refined petroleum products (+20.5%); crude petroleum (+54.5%) and liquefied natural gas (+1.8%).

    However, declines were recorded for palm oil and palm oil-based products (-11.5%); timber and timber-based products (-0.4%) and natural rubber (-1.9%).

    The lower imports by “end-use” were mainly attributed to intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods.

    MIDF Research said export growth for Q3 averaged 5.3% yoy, moderated from 8.4%yoy in Q2. It was the lowest gain in seven quarters.

    Looking at the final quarter of 2018, it expects exports to perform better than in the earlier three quarters.

    “Amid higher base effects and signs of easing key global indicators, we foresee exports to expand by 7.3% this year (18.9% in 2017). This is supported by lower exports growth for the first nine months which registered at 6.5% compared to double-digit growth of 21.6% in the same period last year.

    “The moderating pace is consistent with gradual rise in global commodity prices, expectation of slight slowdown in overall business performance on top of the heating Sino-US trade conflict.”

  • Alibaba promises US$200 billion global sourcing plan

    Alibaba promises US$200 billion global sourcing plan

    Alibaba has committed to help import US$200 billion worth of goods from more than 120 countries over the next five years. The company says the move underscores its long-term commitment to globalisation and boosting its efforts to meet the rising demand of Chinese consumers for high-quality international products.

    However, it could also be construed as a move to shore up alternative supply chains in the wake of growing trade tensions between the US Trump administration and China.

    “Globalisation is one of Alibaba’s most critical long-term growth strategies,” said Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang in a statement. “We are building the future infrastructure of commerce to realize a globalised digital economy where trade is possible for every country around the world.”

    He said using Alibaba’s innovative technology and robust ecosystem, the company is positioned to make global trade more inclusive and fulfil its mission “to make it easy to do business anywhere in the digital era.”

    Zhang outlined Alibaba’s plan at its Global Import Leadership Summit held at the first-ever China International Import Expo in Shanghai. Between 2019 and 2023, Alibaba forecasts it will help import international goods from businesses of all sizes in top countries such as Germany, Japan, Australia, the US, South Korea and Singapore. Several top global brands including P&G, Nestle, JBS, and Refa, have confirmed their holistic partnership with the Alibaba ecosystem.

    By collaborating with various Alibaba businesses units, these brands have been able to effectively engage with China’s massive middle class, a primary engine powering China’s consumption growth.

    Alvin Liu, GM of Tmall import and export, said China’s middle class is booming. “As incomes are rising in China, consumers want faster access to and a wider variety of high-quality products from around the world. Tmall is uniquely positioned to help international brands tap into the growing China market as consumers seek to upgrade their lifestyle.”

    According to a joint report by Deloitte China, the China Chamber of International Commerce, and AliResearch, China’s robust economic growth in recent years has increased the number of middle-to-high income Chinese consumers, who are fuelling the demand for imported, quality goods.

    The report notes that China’s cross-border e-commerce market has grown remarkably, with the proportion of imports to total e-commerce sales growing from 1.6 per cent in 2014 to 10.2 per cent last year. The report also highlights that, between 2014 and 2017, the number of shoppers on Alibaba’s dedicated platform for cross-border shopping, Tmall Global, has grown 10-fold.

  • Trade war’s bark turns to bite in Asia

    Trade war’s bark turns to bite in Asia

    The U.S.-China tariff slugfest has for months triggered warnings that it could impact global economic growth, and recent data indicates the tension is beginning to bite. Manufacturing gauges in several export-reliant Asian countries, as well as China, weakened in October as gloom deepens over the trade outlook.

    China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures factory activity, came in at 50.2 in October, down from 50.8 the previous month, the latest sign of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy amid the trade war and a domestic debt problem.

    But China’s troubles are bad for the rest of the region, and the world, analysts said.

    Asian exporting countries from South Korea to Malaysia saw PMI decreases in October, according to indices compiled by Nikkei/IHS Markit.

    Taiwan saw its steepest falls in production and new business in just over three years, purchasing activity by companies fell for the first time since May 2016, and firms anticipate lower factory output in the next 12 months, Nikkei/IHS Markit said.

    “Taiwan is feeling the effects of this trade war because China is the factory for many companies in Taiwan. When the estuary is blocked, you feel the effects,” said Sun Ming-te of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research.

    Paying the price

    South Korea’s PMI slipped to 51.0 in October from 51.3 in September, while a separate Korean business sentiment index for manufacturing sank to its lowest level in two years.

    China is South Korea’s largest trading partner, absorbing a quarter of Korean exports.

    “The situation may get worse next year due to a prolonged trade war between the US and China, growing default risks at debt-plagued Chinese firms and a slowing global economy that reduces demand for our exports,” said c, an analyst at the Korea Institute of Finance.

    Southeast Asian manufacturers were feeling the effects too, with PMI in Malaysia and Thailand slipping below the 50-point level, which indicates contraction in the sector.

    It was Malaysia’s lowest PMI since July and Thailand’s lowest in two years.

    In an interview last week, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad complained that U.S. President Donald Trump — who has accused various trading partners of “ripping off” America — “seems to be withdrawing from all commitments overseas”.

    Mahathir, 93, said that hurts everyone, including the U.S.

    “We want to remain friendly with the U.S., and we want to continue trading with the US,” Mahathir said.

    “But the trade war that is going on between the U.S. and China is damaging for us. We have to pay a price for that.”

    Vietnam or bust

    The International Monetary Fund warned at its annual meeting last month that the trade friction and other threats would hobble the world economy, lowering its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

    The Eurozone posted disappointing PMI figures in October, though due largely to factors other than trade tension.

    But not everyone feels the shock yet, with Japan’s manufacturing looking solid last month.

    Trump, meanwhile, faces little pressure to tame his trade rhetoric at home, with a rosy U.S. outlook marked by rising wages and low unemployment.

    And even in Asia, there will be some winners as conflict re-aligns trading patterns, economists noted.

    Vietnam, in particular, looks to gain as foreign manufacturers relocate out of China to escape the trade war crossfire and what many say is an increasingly unfair playing field for foreign companies in China.

    Vietnam PMI climbed from a ten-month low of 51.5 in September to 53.9 last month.

    “The hard data on exports and industrial production in recent months haven’t been that great. The latest survey nonetheless shows how Vietnam is weathering the U.S.-China trade war better than its ASEAN peers,” Miguel Chanco, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics asia.

    “If the trade war escalates, Vietnam will be one of the prime destinations for export-oriented firms looking to move out of China.”

  • Malaysia’s exports rebound in September

    Malaysia’s exports rebound in September

    Malaysia’s exports rebounded by 6.7% in September 2018 to RM83 billion year-on-year (y-o-y) after a slight decrease in the previous month, according to Statistics Department. Total trade which was valued at RM150.8 billion increased RM3.3 billion or 2.3% in September 2018, chief statistician Malaysia Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said in a statement.

    Mohd Uzir said the trade surplus recorded the highest value since October 2008 at RM15.3 billion, increased RM7.1 billion or 85.9% from a year ago.

    Re-exports was valued at RM16.5 billion registering an increase of 26.2% y-o-y and accounted for 19.9% of total exports, while domestic exports increased 2.7% or RM1.8 billion to RM66.5 billion.

    The export growth was contributed by expansion in exports to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia and Republic of Korea. Meanwhile, lower imports were mainly from India, Republic of Korea, Vietnam, UAE and EU.

    The main products which contributed to the expansion in exports were electrical & electronic products, refined petroleum products, crude petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

    However, the department said decline was recorded for palm oil and palm oil-based products, timber and timber-based products and natural rubber.

    For imports, the lower in imports by ‘end use’ was mainly attributed to intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods, it added.

  • Vietnam urges China to import more agriculture produce

    Vietnam urges China to import more agriculture produce

    China should import more Vietnamese products, especially agriculture produce, so as to balance bilateral trade, PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Sunday. “As Vietnam is seeing a great trade deficit with China, you [Chinese businesses] should import more products from Vietnam, starting with agricultural products, to balance bilateral trade,” the prime minister said at a meeting with Chinese businesses in Shanghai before the November 5-10 China International Import Expo (CIIE).

    “This is in line with the policy of China’s top leaders, who have repeatedly told us that they are keen to move towards a trade balance between China and Vietnam,” he noted.

    China is currently the largest market for agricultural products in Vietnam with the export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery products this year estimated at over $35 billion, up nearly 9 percent over the same period last year, Phuc said.

    However, most Vietnamese produce are mostly consumed in China’s southern Yunnan Province and the Guangxi region bordering Vietnam, not in the rest of the country, he said.

    As the second largest agricultural produce exporter in ASEAN with over 20 agriculture products that have an annual export value of over $1 billion worth, Vietnam offers many products favored by Chinese consumers, the PM said.

    Many Vietnamese agriculture produce are among the world’s best, like rice, pepper, cashew, pangasius fish and shrimp, he noted, adding that its fruits, like dragonfruit, mango, longan and watermelon, have passed import standards set by Australia, the EU, Japan, South Korea and the U.S.

    These products have great potential to boost bilateral trade cooperation, the PM stressed.

    Representatives of Chinese corporations at the meeting said they value the investment potential in Vietnam and are interested in bringing Vietnamese agriculture produce to China and and the world.

    Pu Jian, executive director of the CITIC International Asset Management company, said that he could bring Vietnamese products more deeply into the Chinese market as his company specializes in importing rice, fruits and other produce.

    His corporation also owns 60 percent of McDonald shares with over 3,500 stores in China, and this could be a potential channel to consume Vietnamese produce, he added.

    Johnson Choi, executive director of China’s conglomerate Sunwah Group and general director of Sunwah Vietnam, said that his company would like to distribute Vietnamese coffee in the Chinese market and invest in Vietnam’s “green” agriculture.

    In a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping the same day on the sidelines of the CIIE, China’s major event seeking more import opportunities, PM Phuc stressed that Vietnam always attaches great importance to the development of friendly, stable and healthy relations with China.

    China should adopt policies and practical measures to reduce the current large trade deficit with Vietnam, he added.

    Xi said that his country doesn’t want to pursue a trade surplus with Vietnam, and will increase imports from Vietnam towards more balanced and sustainable bilateral trade.

    Vietnam-China trade reached $93.69 billion last year, up 30.2 percent from 2016. Vietnam earned $35.46 billion from exports to China, up 61.5 percent, while spending $58.22 billion on imports from the country, up 16.4 percent.

    In the first nine months this year, bilateral trade between the two countries reached $76.06 billion, up 18.7 percent over the same period last year.

    China continues to be Vietnam’s largest trading partner and the one with which it has the largest trade deficit. It is also Vietnam’s second largest export market after the U.S, according to Vietnam Customs.

  • Indonesia Gov’t Considers Reducing Its Levy on Palm Oil Exports

    Indonesia Gov’t Considers Reducing Its Levy on Palm Oil Exports

    The government is considering reducing its levy on palm oil exports, Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister Darmin Nasution said on Thursday, as the country pushes to maintain its position in international markets for the commodity.

    Speaking at an industry conference in Bali, the minister said an “adjustment” to the levy was among steps to be taken by the government, although he later said that this was still being discussed.

    “We don’t have final position yet,” Darmin said on the sidelines of the event. “We have to calculate that carefully. We don’t want lowering it only to result in lower prices.”

    Indonesia, the world’s top producer of the commodity, currently imposes a levy of up to $50 per metric ton on various palm oil products.

    The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) said last week that it had proposed cutting the palm oil export levy by $20 per ton until prices of the vegetable oil reach $700 per ton.

    The government’s reference price for crude palm oil has stayed below $750 per ton for over a year.

    Darmin said the government would discuss the levy adjustment intensively over the next two months, hoping to reach a decision around year-end.

  • EU trade pact can reduce Vietnam’s reliance on China, US

    EU trade pact can reduce Vietnam’s reliance on China, US

    The Vietnam-EU trade pact can diversify export markets and help reduce reliance on China and the U.S., experts say. On October 17, the European Commission submitted the EVFTA for signature and conclusion to the European Council. Once authorized by the Council, the agreement will be signed and presented by the end of this year to the European Parliament for ratification. The European Parliament is set to ratify the EVFTA early next year.

    The trade pact, which has been negotiated since June 2012, is considered a game changer as it would eliminate almost all trade tariffs between the two sides.

    Luu Bich Ho, former head of the Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, said that the deal would play a major role in reducing Vietnam’s reliance on the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies.

    “This is obviously an opportunity for Vietnam to increase export [to the EU] to avoid being affected should the U.S. seek to limit imports from Vietnam,” Ho said.

    It’s also a chance for Vietnam to diversify its markets as it is still heavily dependent on China in trade, he added.

    In the first nine months this year, the U.S. was Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for 19.5 percent of Vietnam’s total exports, a growth of 13.2 percent year-on-year, according to Vietnam Customs.

    Although the EU came second and accounted for 17.4 percent, this market has the smallest growth rate among Vietnam’s top six export markets at 10.5 percent.

    China was the third largest export market, had the highest growth rate of 29.9 percent. It was also Vietnam’s largest import market, accounting for 27.3 percent of Vietnam’s total imports.