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Tag: trade war

  • Alibaba not affected by the Trade War

    Alibaba not affected by the Trade War

    Alibaba executive chairman Joe Tsai told analysts the company’s position as “China’s number-one platform for overseas brands” puts it on the right side of the trade war between the US and China.

    While discussing the group’s recent full-year results, which saw Alibaba grow revenue 51 per cent during the year to March 31, 2019, to US$56.2 billion (RMB376.8 billion) and net income 31 per cent to $13.1 billion (RMB80.2 billion), Tsai said he wanted to address the “elephant in the room”.

    “First, the reduction of the US trade deficit. China’s commitment to purchase more American products means China will over the next several years become a net importing country,” Tsai said.

    “We are the platform of choice for global producers of products and brands selling into China because we have the reach and deep insights on over 650 million active Chinese consumers on our platform. The scale and effectiveness of our access to Chinese consumers is simply unrivaled.”

    Alibaba’s active customers grew to 654 million over the year to March 31- an increase of 104 million year on year.

    Tsai said the ongoing trade negotiations also create an opportunity for other markets to do more foreign business within China, satisfying growing demand from the Chinese public as the country’s economy shifts from an “export economy to a domestic consumption economy”.

    “As we look at the evolution of the Chinese economy, Alibaba is on the right side of all of the issues,” Tsai said.

    Alibaba was recently ranked as the world’s most valuable retail brand outside of the US by research firm Kantar earlier this week, which valued the brand at US$131.2 billion, up 48 per cent on last year.

    Partly, this was due to the group’s New Retail strategy, which this year saw Alibaba partner with Starbucks to enable on-demand coffee delivery across 35 cities throughout China.

    “If you want to see the future of retail, look to China,” the report said.

    “In many ways, it is leading the world… Chinese consumers are using mobile in every aspect of their lives.”

  • Wall St rises after Trump stirs China trade hopes again

    Wall St rises after Trump stirs China trade hopes again

    Wall Street’s three major indexes ended higher on Monday but well below the session’s highs after President Donald Trump said he would delay a planned hike in tariffs on Chinese imports. Postponement of the tariff deadline was seen as the clearest sign yet the two countries were closing in on an agreement to end their prolonged trade spat, which has slowed global growth and disrupted markets.

    But gains were capped after weeks of advances for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq, partly due to trade optimism and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.

    “A lot of the good news related to trade is priced in at this point,“ said R.J. Grant, head of trading at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in New York.

    “There’s only so much we can rally when somebody says we’re making progress … The trade stuff is a little bit of a sideshow. If you get back to looking at economic growth, it’s clearly slowing.”

    The S&P 500 index ended 4.9% below its late September record closing high after narrowing the gap to 4.3% earlier in the session.

    Investors were also looking ahead to an appearance by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before a US Senate committee on Tuesday.

    “In the short term trade got taken off the table today so next up on the calendar is Powell speaking to Congress. It’s possible investors are starting to clam up a bit because of what they think Powell may say,“ said Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds in San Francisco.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 60.14 points, or 0.23%, to 26,091.95, the S&P 500 gained 3.44 points, or 0.12%, to 2,796.11 and the Nasdaq Composite added 26.92 points, or 0.36%, to 7,554.46.

    Investors were also wary of weakening estimates for current quarter earnings, with Wall Street on Monday expecting a 0.9% decline in S&P first-quarter earnings per share compared with expectations for 5.3% growth on Jan. 1, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    “It’s hard to get valuations to continue to rise in the face of falling earnings estimates,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab in Boston.

    Of the S&P’s 11 major sectors, 7 ended the day with gains.

    After advancing as much as 1.4%, the financials index lost ground late in the day to close up 0.4%.

    The S&P technology index rose 0.5%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index climbed 0.8% as chip companies have a big exposure to China.

    The industrials sector rose 0.4%, getting its biggest boost from General Electric Co, which gained 10.8% after announcing a sale of its biopharma business to Danaher Corp for $21.4 billion. Danaher shares rose 8.2%.

    A flurry of M&A activity also helped the risk-on sentiment.

    The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index rose 2%, its biggest boost coming from shares in Spark Therapeutics Inc, which soared 120% after Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG agreed to buy it for $4.3 billion.

    The biggest laggards were the S&P’s defensive sectors – consumer staples, utilities and real estate. The consumer discretionary sector also ended down 0.3%, with the biggest drag from Home Depot, down 1.3%, on concerns about a soft housing market ahead of its quarterly results.

    Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.14-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.05-to-1 ratio favoured advancers.

    The S&P 500 posted 58 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 128 new highs and 14 new lows.

    Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.36 billion shares, compared with the 7.32 billion average for the last 20 trading days.

  • Hanoi businesses do brisk business with Trump-Kim summit specials

    Hanoi businesses do brisk business with Trump-Kim summit specials

    Several enterprising businesses have cashed in on the Trump-Kim summit with signature products – craft beer, cocktails, haircuts and T-shirts. A standing bar on Tran Vu Street has already gained a lot of attention with a craft beer named Kim Jong Ale, a kimchi flavored beverage concocted in Saigon.

    Huong Anh, who manages the bar, has waxed lyrical about the beer for the occasion. “Kim Jong Ale is a customers’ favorite here. The inspiration behind this beer is the pure streams of Mount Paektu, which is located between North Korea and China,” she told reporters.

    Yet another bar on Hang Than Street brought out a cocktail called “Make the world great again”, mixing soju, bourbon and Fireball Cinnamon Whisky, pineapple juice, vanilla and grenadine.A wine bar in the capital city has also helped itself to some publicity and increased business with a cocktail called “Peace Negroniations,” a variation of the classic Negroni, made with pink-grapefruit soju, vermouth and bitters. We replaced gin with soju for this special cocktail,” bartender Chau said.

    It took two days to complete this recipe, said Ngo Dinh Tien, a bartender.

    A pizzeria has been offering free pizzas to people with names similar to that of Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and to those sporting the distinctive haircuts of both leaders, from February 20-28.

    To get such haircuts, the place to go to is the one on De La Thanh Street that has been offering these for free. The salon is even organizing a contest for people getting such haircuts, with the grand prize being free haircuts for three years.

    A South Korean restaurant in the My Dinh area has hung a banner on their door, featuring Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump and welcoming the summit. The owner said the poster has attracted a lot of attention with many customers taking selfies with it.

    An Old Quarter restaurant has hogged some attention for itself with hamburgers named after the two leaders – “Durty Donald” and “Kim Jong Yum,” served with U.S. and North Korean flags.


    Perhaps the hottest summit item has been souvenir T-shirts. Truong Thanh Duc’s small shop on Hang Bong Street has been operating at full capacity, making 500 shirts a day with a design that says peace and carries pictures of both leaders. Each T-shirt costs less than $5


    .

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  • Asia markets rally as Trump delays China tariffs

    Asia markets rally as Trump delays China tariffs

    Shanghai led a rally across Asian markets Monday after Donald Trump said he would delay a hike in tariffs on Chinese goods citing “substantial progress” in trade talks and fuelling hopes of an end to their long-running stand-off. Optimism over the negotiations had already provided support to global equities, spurring a rally in January and February, but the president’s comments gave extra ammunition to investors to ramp up the buying.

    The news also fired currency markets with the yuan extending gains to a seven-month high, while other high-yielding, riskier units were also up against the dollar.

    Trump said on Twitter that the US “has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues”.

    He added: “As a result of these very productive talks, I will be delaying the US increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1.”

    The president also said he planned to hold a summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to sign a deal.

    China’s Xinhua news agency added that the two sides had “made substantial progress on specific issues” including on transfer of technology, intellectual property and agriculture.

    ‘Sigh of relief’

    In morning trade, Shanghai jumped 2.8% and Hong Kong added 0.4% while Tokyo ended the morning 0.7% higher.

    Sydney and Singapore each put on 0.1%, while Seoul was flat, Taipei added 0.4% and Jakarta rose 0.3%.

    The gains in Asia followed another positive lead from Wall Street, where the Dow enjoyed its ninth straight weekly gain – the longest streak since May 1995.

    “This is a sigh of relief,“ said Ben Emons, managing director for global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors. “Markets will still keep a level of caution, but this news is encouraging,“ he said.

    The upbeat sentiment lifted high-risk currencies, with the yuan hitting its highest level against the dollar since July, while South Korea’s won, the Australian dollar and the Indonesia rupiah were also well up.

    Forex traders will be closely watching speeches this week from top Federal Reserve officials – including chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance in front of lawmakers – hoping for clues about the bank’s monetary policy plans.

    Wall Street “will be looking for soothing comments about the future size of the balance sheet – the bigger the better – and insights into future rate hikes”, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.

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  • U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House

    U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House

    The U.S. Commerce Department sent a report on Sunday to U.S. President Donald Trump that could unleash steep tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, provoking a sharp backlash from the industry even before it is unveiled, the agency confirmed. Late on Sunday, a department spokeswoman said it would not disclose any details of the “Section 232” national security report submitted to Trump by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. The disclosure of the submission came less than two hours before the end of a 270-day deadline.

    Trump has 90 days to decide whether to act upon the recommendations, which auto industry officials expect to include at least some tariffs on fully assembled vehicles or on technologies and components related to electric, automated, connected and shared vehicles.

    As the White House received the report, the industry unleashed what is expected to be a massive lobbying campaign against it.

    The industry has warned that feared tariffs of up to 25 percent on millions of imported cars and parts would add thousands of dollars to vehicle costs and potentially lead to hundreds of thousands of job losses throughout the U.S. economy.

    The Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association, which represents auto parts suppliers, warned that tariffs will shrink investment in the United States at a time when the auto industry is already reeling from declining sales, Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, and tariffs on auto parts from China.

    “These tariffs, if applied, could move the development and implementation of new automotive technologies offshore, leaving America behind,” it said in a statement. “Not a single company in the domestic auto industry requested this investigation.”

    The Commerce Department started its investigation in May 2018 at Trump’s request. Known as a Section 232 investigation, its purpose was to determine the effects of imports on national security and it had to be completed by Sunday.

    Automakers and parts suppliers are anticipating its recommendation options will include broad tariffs of up to 20 percent to 25 percent on assembled cars and parts, or narrower tariffs targeting components and technologies related to new energy cars, autonomous, internet-connected and shared vehicles.

    The Commerce Department alluded to a focus on emerging vehicle technologies when it opened the investigation.

    Administration officials have said tariff threats on autos are a way to win concessions from Japan and the EU. Last year, Trump agreed not to impose tariffs as long as talks with the two trading partners were proceeding in a productive manner.

    Trump said on Friday that tariffs protect industry and also help win trade agreements.

    “I love tariffs, but I also love them to negotiate,” he said.

    A report from the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, published on Friday showed its worst-case scenario of a tariff of 25 percent would cost 366,900 U.S. jobs in the auto and related industries.

    U.S. light duty vehicle prices would increase by $2,750 on average, including U.S.-built vehicles, reducing annual U.S. sales by 1.3 million units and forcing many consumers to the used car market, the think tank’s report said.

    Major automaker groups said last year the cumulative effect for the United States would be an $83 billion annual price increase and argued there was no evidence auto imports posed a national security risk.

    Canada and Mexico each won duty-free access to 2.6 million vehicles as part of a new North American free trade deal even if the administration moves ahead with the tariffs.

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  • Alibaba Says China’s Slowdown Isn’t Hurting It All That Much

    Alibaba Says China’s Slowdown Isn’t Hurting It All That Much

    Alibaba Group VC Joseph Tsai says the firm is unperturbed by China’s economic slowdown. Quoted in a Bloomberg report, Tsai said Alibaba is “delinked” from a Chinese economy in which more and more business are moving online because “we’re in e-commerce and we’re digitising the whole sector”.

    He added that Alibaba’s growth is expected to continue to outpace the economy in general, as digital commerce grows at faster rates compared with more traditional retail business.

    The comments were made at the Goldman Sachs Group technology conference in San Francisco.

    According to the Bloomberg article, China’s economy expanded 6.4 per cent in the final three months of last year compared with a year earlier. Alibaba’s takings during the period rose 41 per cent to RMB117.3 billion (US$17.3 billion), representing its slowest pace of growth in more than two years. Its continued positive performance is buoyed by excursions into new business territories such as cloud services and entertainment, while assisting physical retailers with modernisation drives.

    According to the Alibaba Group VC, the situation is comparable to Amazon’s in terms of its consistent double-digit sales growth in the face of slowing economic growth within the US.

  • Trump says could extend March 1 China trade talks deadline

    Trump says could extend March 1 China trade talks deadline

    US President Donald Trump (pix) said Tuesday he would consider extending the deadline for a trade deal with China beyond March 1. “If we’re close to a deal, where we think we can make a real deal… I could see myself letting that slide for a little while,” Trump said at the White House. But he added: “Generally speaking I’m not inclined to do that.”

    The comments came as the third round of trade negotiations were set to resume in Beijing to avert more than doubling tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.

    “China wants to make a deal very badly,” he said, and “things are going well” in the talks. And while no date has yet been agreed for a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, he said he expects that to happen “at some point.”

    The high-stakes dispute has raised concerns it could spill over into the global economy after Trump last year hit China with 25% punitive tariffs on $50 billion in goods, and then imposed 10% duties on another $200 billion in annual imports.

    The rate on all those imports are set to increase to 25% if no agreement is reached by March 1.

    China’s economy already has shown signs of slowing, while the trade war has shaken the confidence of US businesses, as retaliatory tariffs have raised prices and helped choke off a key export market.

    And Trump’s aggressive strategy has failed to produce a reduction in the US trade deficit with China, which he set as a primary goal.

    He repeated the incorrect statement that China is paying the duties, which in fact are paid by US companies importing goods.

    And economists say much of the intended effect of the duties in reducing imports, has been offset by the devaluation of China’s currency, which makes goods cheaper for importers.

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  • Sandro parent unphased by trade spat

    Sandro parent unphased by trade spat

    The parent of affordable-luxury fashion labels Sandro, Claudie Pierlot and Maje appears unphased by the Sino-US trade spat, vowing to continue its expansion in the region. SMCP’s CEO Daniel Lalonde said in an interview that the company plans to continue to open new stores in Mainland China and invest in e-commerce across the region.

    “From our perspective, everything is still intact [in China]. Any slowdown in our business is related to the comparison base … and we still expect to grow that market by more than 20 per cent this year,” Lalonde said. “We’re still confident on the region.”

    France-based SMCP is controlled by Chinese company Shandong Ruyi. This week it reported an 8.1 per cent increase in fourth-quarter sales to €276.1 million.

    SMCP has doubled its annual sales during the past four years, reaching €1 billion last year, largely due to rapid expansion in Mainland China. Asia is now SMCP’s third-largest geographic market behind France and the rest of Europe, with China accounting for the bulk.

    However, he said sales in Hong Kong were “a little softer” as a result of currency fluctuations between the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi.

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  • Companies, workers struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy

    Companies, workers struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy

    Cracks are opening in China’s mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs. The world’s second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging further in recent months. While gross domestic product grew at 6.6% in 2018 – a rate that would be the envy of most nations – China’s efforts to cut its debt mountain have weighed on the economy.

    Private businesses in particular face new hurdles as costs rise and financing becomes harder to come by, while the trade war with the United States has not helped.

    Here is a look at some of the struggles faced by Chinese companies and people:

    Game over for gamers

    Feeding China’s addiction to video games seemed an easy bet for Beijing Yixin Technology, a tech startup behind the mobile game Farm Take Home.

    The game allows players to harvest wheat, raise chickens and plant apple trees – a bucolic refuge from the pressures of urban China.

    But in real life, the tech firm has struggled to find investors.

    “In December our company’s funding ran out, we had an investment lined up, but the money never came through,” said chairman Cui Yi. “This month I arranged another investor, then he backed out too. I think we can’t hold out.”

    His company is not alone.

    Venture capital funding dried up at the end of last year. Total investment in the fourth quarter fell 13% from a year earlier, according to data from Preqin market research.

    Policymakers are partly to blame, pushing a war on debt and financial risk that has cut the funding flowing into investment firms, industry insiders say.

    Another government diktat halted new video game approvals for months – officially due to youth gaming addiction concerns – sending firms like Beijing Yixin into a deep freeze.

    Trade war

    Other companies are facing the fallout from the trade war with the United States.

    More than a handful of exporters have sought to get around US tariffs by building factories outside China, according to a review of public stock filings.

    Others are sending workers home early for Chinese New Year or cutting overtime.

    Last month China’s exports fell.

    “It has hit our profits,” Harry Shih, manager of Runfine Bearings in eastern Zhejiang province, said of the trade war.

    Washington slapped 25% taxes on many types of ball bearings in July. Shih said he had shared the cost increase with his customers, roughly half of whom are from the US.

    “Business is going down for most companies including factories. Like me they have the same problems, profits are going down” as costs rise, said Shih.

    Job crunch

    Official data shows unemployment at a stable rate, rising slightly to 4.9% last month. But independent data paints a different picture.

    In October-December advertised tech positions fell by 20% from a year earlier, after declining 51% in the third quarter, according to data from Zhaopin, China’s largest recruitment website and Renmin University.

    China’s economy “faces downward pressure, and to some extent this pressure will be transmitted to the job market,” said Meng Wei, a spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state planner.

    A lawyer who consults on labour disputes, Guo Xuehai of Beijing Zhonghai Law Firm, said, “there are definitely more employees coming for help than before,” but added this was usually the case at this time of the year.

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  • Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    The slowdown in China may impact Malaysia more given the strong trade linkage with China, according to PublicInvest Research. “China is not only our biggest trade partner in 2018 (YTD 2018: 16.7%) but also our largest export market (YTD 2018: 13.9%) and our second biggest import source after Singapore (YTD 2018:19.8%). This could bring negative ramifications not only to Malaysia but also to other peers like Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines and hence, the growth prospects of Asean-5,“ the research house said in a report.

    In fact, it said, the simmering trade stress has caused noticeable dent to export momentum in November with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia suffering a contraction in exports. This could be repeated in December.

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable outcomes to the trade negotiation may see longer times taken for growth to normalise due to demand deficiencies which are always more damaging than supply shocks.

    “Other than this, the pullback in global financial and commodity markets arising from pockets of stress mentioned above can hurt Malaysia as well due to contagion effects. This can bring down the ringgit in addition to putting a cap in the prices of our key commodity exports like crude oil, crude palm oil and rubber,“ it explained.

    The slowdown in China is particularly alarming and shows signs of worsening following the release of its 2018 growth of 6.6% (2017: 6.8%), the slowest since 1990.

    “We don’t see negative surprises in this as it is within the People’s Bank of China’s estimates,“ it said, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s slowdown to continue, forecast to ease to 6.2% in 2019 amid firmed commitment to reforms and rebalancing on the back of the trade collision with the US.

    PublicInvest Research said the slew of IMF downgrades could result in negative ramifications not only to global financial markets but also commodities. Risk aversion could heighten, pushing investors to take less risks which may be precursor to elevating demand for safe haven assets particularly bonds.

    “Among all the growth risks mentioned by IMF, we are particularly concerned over China given its extensive trade network and huge economy.”

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable trade negotiations could be harmful not only to China’s outlook but also emerging economies, particularly Asean, given their strong interdependence on trade. This could lead to inexorable downturns to Asean economies, particularly those that depend on China’s exports (intermediate goods).

    “Over and above all, we think that China still has sufficient tools to support growth should trade negotiations turn unfavourable although the impact could still be there.”

  • ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    With a 2019 GDP growth of 6.9 percent, Vietnam will remain one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. “We remain positive on Vietnam’s medium-term growth on strong manufacturing activity as FDI inflows to electronics manufacturing remain strong,” says economist Chidu Narayanan of Standard Chartered Bank. According to a report recently issued by the bank, the country is likely to reach GDP growth of 6.9 percent this year.

    The manufacturing sector has expanded by double digits for most of the past four years and this pace is likely to continue in 2019, says the report.

    The bank expects manufacturing growth to remain strong this year, though mildly lower than in 2018. Strong FDI inflows to manufacturing will likely support robust manufacturing output, it says.

    Standard Chartered economists also forecast FDI disbursement to stay at $15 billion this year and FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics manufacturing, to remain high in the medium term.

    FDI disbursement in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent,  according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    “Most macro-economic indicators improved in 2018, interest and foreign exchange rates were kept stable despite the Fed’s hike in interest rates and U.S.-China tension, and non-performing loans were well-managed below three percent,” says Nirukt Sapru, CEO Vietnam and ASEAN and South Asia Cluster Markets.

    “We believe that the Vietnamese economy will remain one of the fastest growing in Asia and likely the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in 2019.”

    The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s GDP is likely to drop to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the country’s GDP for 2019 at 6.8 percent.

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent in 2018 was the highest in a decade, according to the General Statistics Office.

  • Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    A full-blown trade war could drag Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2% this year, from an earlier projection of 4.7%, according to Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd head of research and chief economist Alan Tan. Tan said if the trade spat between the US and China were to escalate to a situation where tariffs are fully implemented on all Chinese goods, Malaysia’s GDP growth could be hit closer to 1.5 percentage point.

    “If Malaysia’s GDP is at 5%, the 1.5% will push the GDP growth down to 3.5%,” he told reporters at the press conference in conjunction with the bank’s launch ceremony of its Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) facility for retail investors yesterday.

    “Malaysia is an open economy and is still relying on trade. As we know, China today is the major market for Malaysia and if the global trade war were to escalate, we think that the Chinese economy, which has already shown signs of slowing down, may slow even further.

    “Therefore, we are of the view that Malaysia’s exports to China will be slowing down towards the second half of 2019 assuming if the trade war continues to drag on,” he added.

    However, Tan said domestic demand will continue to support the economic growth this year driven by several measures introduced by the government in Budget 2019, supporting the bank’s forecast on the GDP growth at the region of 4.7% this year.

    Additionally, he said that the bank opined that this time around, both US and China will be more willing to negotiate and possibly come out with a trade compromise by end of the first quarter this year, in view of the external uncertainties and weaker business sentiment.

    “Going into 2019, we already seeing signs of slowing down in the US and China. Unlike six months ago, where both economies continue to do relatively well,” he noted.

    Therefore, he said the bank believes that in the second half of 2019, following the resolutions of the global trade war, coupled with the weakening US dollar, interest will come back to the emerging market, including Malaysia.

    However, Tan said the bank expects that the market will remain flat in the first half of 2019 and looking at end-2019 target for the FBM KLCI at 1,810 points.

    On ringgit, he said the local currency is expected to appreciate to RM3.90-RM4.00 level in the second half of 2019, and possibly ending the year at RM3.90 against the US dollar, as the greenback is likely to soften towards the second half of the year.

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  • Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Increasing optimism that China and the United States will be able to hammer out a deal to help ease their trade war provided the impetus for more gains across Asian markets today. After taking a battering in December and suffering a shaky start to 2019, confidence is slowly returning to equity trading floors, though dealers remain on edge. Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell provided the platform for a rally last week when he said the central bank had no “preset” plan for lifting interest rates and was “listening” to markets, signalling that the pace of hikes could slow this year.

    Fear of higher borrowing rates was a major cause of last year’s stocks losses.

    The mood among dealers held this week as officials from China and the US hunkered down for trade negotiations in Beijing that have extended into a third day. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday described them as going “very well”.

    Bloomberg also reported White House sources as saying Trump is keen to get a deal done in order to boost stock markets, which he regards as a gauge of his success.

    And The Wall Street Journal said the two were moving in the right direction, with China ready to buy more US goods and services, while further talks at cabinet level were being lined up next week.

    The progress in talks “is fuelling investor optimism suggesting there might be a light at the end of the trade war tumultuous tunnel”, said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trade at OANDA.

    Hong Kong rose 2.3% – a fourth straight gain that has seen the index put on around 5% – and Shanghai ended up 0.75%, while Tokyo closed 1.15% higher. Sydney jumped 1% with Singapore, while Taipei and Wellington were each more than 1% higher. Manila surged more than 2% and there were also gains in Mumbai and Jakarta.

    Seoul added 2% as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing with speculation swirling that he will meet Trump for a second summit later this year.

    The gains also come after a strong reading on US jobs creation Friday, which soothed worries that the American economy was slowing down.

    “When the dust settles, if it ever does, the fear of recession will prove to be premature,“ Bob Doll, an analyst at Nuveen Asset Management said.

    “We will have growth, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace and we will have… earnings, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace, but acceptable for investors and that will allow equity markets to move higher.”

  • China Slowdown, Trade Disputes Weigh on Asia Factory Activity

    China Slowdown, Trade Disputes Weigh on Asia Factory Activity

    Factory activity weakened across Asia in December as the Sino-US trade war and a slowdown in Chinese demand hit production in most economies, strengthening the case for a pause in interest rate hikes in the region in 2019. A series of purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for December released on Wednesday mostly showed declines or slowdowns in manufacturing factory activity across the region. In China, the Caixin/Markit PMI slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 19 months, broadly tracking an official survey released on Monday.

    China’s weakness spilled over to other Asian economies, with Malaysia’s manufacturing activity shrinking to its weakest pace of expansion since it launched the survey in 2012 and Taiwan contracting to its lowest since September 2015.

    Meanwhile, official economic data out of Singapore showed its gross domestic product grew more slowly than forecast in the fourth quarter as the city-state’s manufacturing sector contracted on a quarterly basis.

    In other regions, the eurozone was expected to post steady manufacturing activity growth, while US activity was seen a tad slower, but firmly in expansion territory, in a sign that so far China has suffered more bruises from its trade frictions than the United States.

    With growth slowing and inflation below or barely within the target in most countries, Asian central banks are unlikely to continue their tightening cycle this year, barring any shocks in currency markets.

    “We are really seeing a global slowdown into this year, and in Asia, particularly export-oriented countries are hurting,” said Irene Cheung, Asia strategist at ANZ.

    “Our expectation for central banks is that most of them won’t change policy in 2019 and these numbers coming out on the weak side won’t change that outlook.”

    The world’s two largest economies agreed at the start of December to a 90-day truce following tit-for-tat tariffs that have disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods between the two countries.

    The two sides have pledged to hold frequent talks in the next two months, but uncertainty over whether they can bridge massive differences over commercial practices and intellectual property rights remains very high, despite US President Donald Trump noting “big progress” in a tweet.

    Tariffs are not the only drag on China’s economy. Beijing’s sustained drive to reduce debt risks in the economy has cooled the property market and curbed credit flows to the private sector. Meanwhile, the government’s intensified crackdown on pollution has dented industrial activity.

    In a key annual conference last month, China’s top leaders said they will boost support for the economy in 2019 by cutting taxes and keeping liquidity ample while promising to continue negotiations with Washington.

    “The People’s Bank of China may have to ease further to offset the impact of tariffs,” said Robert Michele, chief investment officer and head of fixed income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

    China’s economic growth slowed to 6.5 percent in the third quarter of last year, the weakest since the global financial crisis. As reported, government advisers had recommended a growth target of 6.0-6.5 percent for this year at the annual meeting, though the final figure won’t be made public until the annual parliament meeting in early March.

    Oil Drive

    A sharp drop in the crude price at the end of last year has helped sentiment in Asia’s oil-importing economies, where trade deficits are a key vulnerability.

    Indonesia’s PMI index, although still weak historically, rose to 51.2 from November’s 50.4, a four-month high. India’s declined to 53.2 from 54.0 but capped the strongest quarter for the country’s manufacturing sector since late 2012. Philippines PMI was also 53.2.

    But Malaysia, which relies heavily on oil revenues, saw its weakest reading ever at 46.8.

    Taiwan and South Korea, which are heavily focused on tech production, also saw their activity shrink. The US-China trade war affects chip orders and coincides with a slowdown in demand for smartphones globally.

    The contraction in South Korean manufacturing activity continued last month albeit at a slower pace, its PMI showed, with new export orders declining for a fifth consecutive month. Taiwan’s PMI, meanwhile, fell to its lowest since September 2015. Japan publishes PMIs on Jan. 4.

    Vietnam’s PMI fell to 53.8 from November’s 56.5, but the index’s 2018 average was the highest since the survey’s debut in 2011.

    The Southeast Asian economy is widely seen as benefiting from the US-China trade war as companies look to establish operations in the country to avoid the tariff crossfire.

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  • Vietnamese currency falls to new low, could go lower

    Vietnamese currency falls to new low, could go lower

    The official exchange rate between Vietnamese dong and U.S. dollar reached its highest this year Wednesday, and  experts said the dong could depreciate further. The State Bank of Vietnam set a central exchange rate of VND22,757 on Wednesday, the sixth time the rate has gone up in the last two weeks.

    The dong has fallen by VND352, or 1.57 percent, against the greenback since the beginning of the year.

    The dollar’s value increased at commercial banks. At 3p.m. Wednesday, Vietcombank sold the dollar for VND23,350, VND15 higher than Tuesday.

    Vietinbank also sold its dollar for VND23,350, VND17 higher than Tuesday, while BIDV sold it at VND23,355, VND25 higher.

    The dollar also inched up on the free market. At 11.30 a.m. Wednesday, it was selling for VND23,360-23,410, VND10-20 higher than on Tuesday.

    Economist Nguyen Tri Hieu said that the reason for the hike was high demand for dollars toward the end of the year as businesses often import large amounts of materials needed for manufacturing.

    The ongoing U.S.-China trade war continues to exert exchange rate pressures, despite the U.S. announcing a 90-day halt on additional tariffs on Chinese goods starting next year, as there is no certainty that tensions will decline, he said.

    “There is a high possibility that the dong’s value will continue to fall this year,” Hieu said.

    Hieu said that the government should also devaluate the dong against the Chinese yuan so that the trade deficit between Vietnam and China can be reduced.

    Vietnam relies heavily on China for materials and equipment for its labor-intensive manufacturing sector.

    As the yuan’s value has fallen by 9 percent to the dollar since the beginning of this year, some experts have said that the dong should be devaluated even more to avoid impacts a cheaper yuan. Cheap made-in-China goods could be imported in large quantities to Vietnam and compete with domestic products, they said.

    But economist Tran Dinh Thien said that the dong should be kept at a balanced rate between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan. A 2-3 percent band a year is acceptable, he added.

    A stronger dollar will benefit exporters, but will also create stronger pressure on inflation and interest rates which will increase business costs in a country with high imports and public debt, Thien said at a recent conference.

    He added that the fluctuation of the dong should be controlled to help local companies conduct their business with greater certainty.

    The government doesn’t want businesses to suffer shocks, he said.

    Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc had said in August that the devaluation of the dong needs to be kept within a 2-percent band this year compared with the end of last year.

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