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  • Dollar eases as focus shifts to Fed meeting

    Dollar eases as focus shifts to Fed meeting

    The dollar eased versus most of its peers on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, with traders wagering policymakers will signal a pause in their tightening cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee meets between Jan 29-30, and Chairman Jerome Powell is widely expected to acknowledge growing risks to the US economy as global momentum weakens.

    The dollar fell 0.2% versus the offshore yuan to 6.7406. The rally in the yuan also fuelled a bounce in the Australian dollar, which gained 0.18% versus the dollar to $0.7195. Kiwi dollar strengthened by 0.3% to $0.6859.

    “The general direction for the dollar is still down and markets will be taking cues from the FOMC this week,” said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

    “The Fed will most likely keep rates steady this year given the state of economic growth outside the US”

    The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers was marginally lower at 95.74, after falling 0.8% on Friday.

    A deal to reopen the US government for now after a prolonged shutdown also reduced investor demand for the safety of the greenback.

    ‘The re-opening of Federal government after one-month shutdown fuelled ‘risk on’ rally in the US equities and slashed demand for safe-haven currency like USD, leading to sharp decline of the dollar index last Friday,” said Margaret Yang, markets analyst at CMC Markets.

    Over the past two months or so, Powell and several other Fed policymakers have taken a more cautious approach on further monetary tightening, leaving the dollar underpowered after it enjoyed a boost from the Fed’s four rate increases last year.

    Traders are bearish on the dollar for 2019.

    Amid a weakening global economy and US-Sino trade tensions, the US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady this year to avoid hurting growth at home. Interest rate futures markets are pricing in no rate hikes for 2019.

    Investors are also anxiously waiting news from high-level US-China trade talks on Tuesday and Wednesday to see if the world’s largest economies can reach a compromise that will end their trade war. President Donald Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods if there is no significant progress in the negotiations.

    The yen added 0.2% in early Asian trade at 109.34.

    The dollar has gained around 1.2% on the yen over the last two weeks. Not helping the yen was the Bank of Japan’s downgrade of its inflation forecasts last week when it also maintained its accommodative monetary policy, as widely expected.

    Moreover, Japanese investors have been net buyers of foreign bonds over the last few weeks, stoking demand for dollars. This likely explains why the safe-haven yen has not appreciated during this period even though risks of a global economic slowdown have rattled investor sentiment.

    The euro was marginally higher at $1.1411.

    The single currency managed to cling on to a 0.4 percent gain made last week despite the European Central Bank downgrading its growth forecasts for the near term.

    Growth data out of Europe’s economic powerhouses such as Germany and France has been weaker-than-expected and analysts expect the ECB to remain dovish for an extended period.

    Traders believe Europe’s slowdown and a dovish ECB are priced into the euro, which has traded in a $1.12-$1.16 range over the last three months.

    Sterling was marginally lower, fetching $1.3193.

    Cable gained 2.5% last week after a report in the Sun newspaper that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party had privately decided to offer conditional backing for British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal this week.

    However, Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney said on Sunday the backstop was already a compromise drawn up to meet May’s negotiating red lines, and the EU and Ireland were united in the view it “was not going to change”.

    Analyst expect sterling to remain volatile. Britain is set to leave the European Union on March 29, but the country’s members of parliament remain far from agreeing a divorce deal.

  • OCBC: Malaysia could restore fiscal health in 3 years

    OCBC: Malaysia could restore fiscal health in 3 years

    Malaysia has a reasonable chance of restoring its fiscal health within three years if the economic growth remains stable with new revenue streams and stable expenditure, according to OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling. “But if you have a case where the global environment is very serious and dire and there is no deal between US and China… then it becomes a very hostile environment for any developing country to operate in,” she said last Friday.

    She noted that if the global economy remains at a status quo for the rest of the year and crude oil prices stabilise, Malaysia may miss the fiscal deficit target by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.

    Having said that, the potential slippage is not expected to be “very severe” that will derail Malaysia off its targets.

    “Rating agencies also want to see a multi-year plan. If it’s just a slippage of one year that you can attribute to a lot of external factors, probably the rating agencies will give you a pass. It’s really not a one year story they’re looking for,” she explained.

    The government has projected fiscal deficit to ease to 3.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 3.7% in 2018. It looks to further narrow the fiscal deficit to 3% and 2.8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

    Ling projects Malaysia to record a full-year GDP growth of 4.4% for 2019 amid slowing global growth and the ongoing external headwinds.

    Malaysia’s ringgit, on the other hand, could appreciate to RM4 against the greenback in the event of a weak dollar.

    She said the strengthening of the ringgit will have less to do with domestic factors as the slowdown in economic growth is seen as benign, coupled with an unlikely change in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR).

    Another reason that could be supportive of strong ringgit is the risk of the US economy falling into a recession next year.

    Meanwhile, Ling expects oil prices to be subdued and could result in a shortfall in government coffers if they remain at the current level of around US$50 per barrel until year-end.

    Although Budget 2019 is based on the oil price assumption of US$70 per barrel, she does not see a need to recalibrate the budget at this juncture, but it will exert pressure on seeking new revenue sources.

    “As far as the budget revision is concerned, I suspect (it will) not be so soon because the US$70 is a medium-term price target and oil prices have been volatile in the last six months.

    “But if you look at the average price, it is relatively stable and maybe for the next budget in October 2019, they (the government) may revise the oil price assumption,” she added.

  • Imported vehicle sales in Korea up nearly 10% in 2018

    Imported vehicle sales in Korea up nearly 10% in 2018

    The value of imported vehicles sold in Korea last year jumped 9.9 percent to 17.47 trillion won ($15.49 billion) from a year earlier on demand for German models, industry data showed Thursday. In 2018, imported carmakers sold a combined 260,705 vehicles in Asia’s fourth-biggest economy, up 12 percent from the previous year, the latest findings showed.

    According to the Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association (Kaida), strong demand for vehicles made by Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volkswagen pushed up sales numbers.

    Imported auto brands accounted for a record 16.7 percent of all vehicles sold and registered in the domestic passenger car market for 2018, up from 15.23 percent in the previous year, Kaida said.

  • Gold rises as growth concerns, US govt shutdown weigh on dollar

    Gold rises as growth concerns, US govt shutdown weigh on dollar

    Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar declined due to concerns the prolonged U.S. government shutdown will limit economic growth at the same global growth is slowing as well. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,283.31 per ounce, as of 0326 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,282.60 per ounce. “We are seeing a weaker U.S. dollar for the moment, which is in general supportive for gold,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets said.

    However, McCarthy cautioned that bullion price gains are limited by slowing investor buying as indicated by price charts used by technical traders.

    “The issue for gold is there is a very heavy resistance seen around $1,290 and $1,310. A further weakening of the U.S. dollar could be supportive. But, we need something to really push gold through the resistance level,” he said.

    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell for third day, dropping 0.3 percent during that period. However, Asian shares rose on Thursday after Wall Street managed to end higher.

    On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States was doing well in trade talks with China, saying at a White House event that China “very much wants to make a deal.”

    However, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown reminded investors of risks to growth to the economy.

    White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in a CNN interview the U.S. economy could see zero growth in the first three months if the partial government shutdown lasts for the whole quarter.

    Meanwhile, investor focus turned to the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2019 that ends later on Thursday.

    Market watchers also expect ECB to acknowledge growing threats to the euro zone economy.

    “The ongoing trade war, Brexit and slow global growth narrative are supportive for gold at present levels, as is Chinese seasonal demand,” MKS PAMP Group said in a research note.

    “That being said, Comex non-commercial and exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings remain extended, so we expect a bit of tug of war in the short-term between $1,270-$1,300.”

    Holdings of SPDR Gold, the largest gold-based ETF, was at its highest since June 2018.

    Among other metals, palladium, which hit a record high of $1,434.50 an ounce last week on low inventories and rising demand, rose 0.1 percent to $1,348.50 an ounce.

    Silver was down 0.1 percent $15.35 an ounce, while platinum was steady at $795.

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  • RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Ratings, which expects inflation to inch up to 0.3% in December 2018 from 0.2% in the previous month, has revised its full-year headline inflation forecast for 2019 to 2.0% from 2.7%. The rating agency said in a statement that inflation in December 2018 is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in the preceding month due to dissipation of deflationary pressures from the transport fuel component.

    The price of RON95 petrol fell 3.3% year on year in December, after a 4.5% drop in November.

    On that note, overall inflation is envisaged to come in at 1.0% in 2018.

    As for 2019, RAM Ratings has revised its headline inflation projection downwards to 2.0%, mainly due to changing expectations on global oil prices, which are increasingly pointing to a lower average range of US$60-US$65 (RM248-RM269) per barrel for 2019.

    RAM head of research Kristina Fong said the rating firm’s sensitivity analysis indicates that for every US$5/barrel move in the price of Brent crude, headline inflation potentially changes 0.3 percentage point.

    “The move back to the weekly Automated Pricing Mechanism for pump prices – effective January 2019 – is not expected to exert any significant downward pressure on inflation given the short period it will be in place ahead of the anticipated targeted fuel subsidy mechanism to be implemented in second quarter 2019.

    “Moreover, global oil prices are expected to trend a little higher compared to the start of the year, An escalation in oil (petrol) prices beyond RM2.20/litre will trigger the use of subsidies to maintain this ceiling. This will also contain inflationary pressure,” she added.

    The Department of Statistics released the December inflation data yesterday.

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  • Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    The slowdown in China may impact Malaysia more given the strong trade linkage with China, according to PublicInvest Research. “China is not only our biggest trade partner in 2018 (YTD 2018: 16.7%) but also our largest export market (YTD 2018: 13.9%) and our second biggest import source after Singapore (YTD 2018:19.8%). This could bring negative ramifications not only to Malaysia but also to other peers like Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines and hence, the growth prospects of Asean-5,“ the research house said in a report.

    In fact, it said, the simmering trade stress has caused noticeable dent to export momentum in November with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia suffering a contraction in exports. This could be repeated in December.

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable outcomes to the trade negotiation may see longer times taken for growth to normalise due to demand deficiencies which are always more damaging than supply shocks.

    “Other than this, the pullback in global financial and commodity markets arising from pockets of stress mentioned above can hurt Malaysia as well due to contagion effects. This can bring down the ringgit in addition to putting a cap in the prices of our key commodity exports like crude oil, crude palm oil and rubber,“ it explained.

    The slowdown in China is particularly alarming and shows signs of worsening following the release of its 2018 growth of 6.6% (2017: 6.8%), the slowest since 1990.

    “We don’t see negative surprises in this as it is within the People’s Bank of China’s estimates,“ it said, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s slowdown to continue, forecast to ease to 6.2% in 2019 amid firmed commitment to reforms and rebalancing on the back of the trade collision with the US.

    PublicInvest Research said the slew of IMF downgrades could result in negative ramifications not only to global financial markets but also commodities. Risk aversion could heighten, pushing investors to take less risks which may be precursor to elevating demand for safe haven assets particularly bonds.

    “Among all the growth risks mentioned by IMF, we are particularly concerned over China given its extensive trade network and huge economy.”

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable trade negotiations could be harmful not only to China’s outlook but also emerging economies, particularly Asean, given their strong interdependence on trade. This could lead to inexorable downturns to Asean economies, particularly those that depend on China’s exports (intermediate goods).

    “Over and above all, we think that China still has sufficient tools to support growth should trade negotiations turn unfavourable although the impact could still be there.”

  • Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to return to the 4.6-5% trend range in 2020 as economic drag diminishes, said UBS Investment Bank economist Edward Teather. He said the impact of the trade war and the government’s institutional reforms should go from drags on growth to net positive contributions to the country’s economy this year.

    “Pakatan Harapan’s institutional reforms and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) membership would improve prospects in 2020.

    “Malaysia is also a key potential beneficiary of the CPTPP trade deal,” he said during a conference call on global and Asian 2019 outlook.

    However, he said, Malaysia might lose some potential gains if it decided to pull out of the trade deal and this would impact GDP growth next year.

    “Without CPTPP, there will be less potential to be tapped; but it’s possible without the deal, the government would consider liberalisation, introducing more transparency and level playing field between private companies,” he said.

    Teather said trade war, slower China growth and institutional reform and fiscal consolidation policy initiatives would continue to drive the weakness in growth in the near term.

    Hence, he said, UBS expected Malaysia’s growth to be at 4% this year from the estimated 4.7% in 2018.

    “2019 will likely be a case of pain before gain. First, we expect Malaysia to be impacted by trade war-related disruption, but also to be well placed to subsequently take market share from China in the United States,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Teather expects the ringgit to fall to the RM4.40 level to the US dollar this year before improving in 2020. Malaysia being an open economy, the ringgit was pressured by the lower trade growth, he said.

    “Exports, in dollar terms, rose 10% in 2018 and would only grow 1% in 2019. So it’s quite a strong slowdown and that is partly because of lower oil prices and less demand for products and components,” he added.

    On the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), he said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) may leave interest rates on hold throughout 2019.

    “Soft growth should allow BNM to look at acceleration in inflation driven by the change from the goods and services tax to the sales and service tax in 2018 and fuel subsidy reforms.

    “In early 2020, better growth momentum, confidence in CPTPP and trade war-linked supply-chain adjustments in Malaysia’s favour could lead to a 25-basis point rate hike by BNM,” he said.

    He forecast the US Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark interest rate once this year, in September, and that the Brent crude to hover at US$65 per barrel this year and US$73 per barrel in 2020.

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  • ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    With a 2019 GDP growth of 6.9 percent, Vietnam will remain one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. “We remain positive on Vietnam’s medium-term growth on strong manufacturing activity as FDI inflows to electronics manufacturing remain strong,” says economist Chidu Narayanan of Standard Chartered Bank. According to a report recently issued by the bank, the country is likely to reach GDP growth of 6.9 percent this year.

    The manufacturing sector has expanded by double digits for most of the past four years and this pace is likely to continue in 2019, says the report.

    The bank expects manufacturing growth to remain strong this year, though mildly lower than in 2018. Strong FDI inflows to manufacturing will likely support robust manufacturing output, it says.

    Standard Chartered economists also forecast FDI disbursement to stay at $15 billion this year and FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics manufacturing, to remain high in the medium term.

    FDI disbursement in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent,  according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    “Most macro-economic indicators improved in 2018, interest and foreign exchange rates were kept stable despite the Fed’s hike in interest rates and U.S.-China tension, and non-performing loans were well-managed below three percent,” says Nirukt Sapru, CEO Vietnam and ASEAN and South Asia Cluster Markets.

    “We believe that the Vietnamese economy will remain one of the fastest growing in Asia and likely the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in 2019.”

    The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s GDP is likely to drop to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the country’s GDP for 2019 at 6.8 percent.

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent in 2018 was the highest in a decade, according to the General Statistics Office.

  • Vietnam trade deficit could balloon to $3 billion

    Vietnam trade deficit could balloon to $3 billion

    Vietnam could face a trade deficit of $3 billion this year, after achieving the highest trade surplus in a decade in 2018. Export turnover in 2019 is expected to reach about $265 billion, down 17.4 percent from 2018. However, imports are expected to rise by 13.2 percent, reaching $268 billion, meaning a trade deficit of $3 billion, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has predicted.

    The volatility of trade policies of major economies like the U.S. and EU could hurt Vietnam’s exports this year, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong said at a recent review conference.

    Geopolitical tensions and monetary policies which were tightened earlier than expected in many economies are other challenges for Vietnam’s export sector this year, he added.

    Global agricultural supply this year is expected to rise as countries hike up production of own agriculture sectors to avoid reliance on imports, and competition for agricultural and seafood products is set to intensify.

    Meanwhile, imports are forecast to continue to grow in manufacturing sectors that rely on imported materials or machinery.

    “Trade protection looks to be on the rise, especially after the U.S. has raised tariffs on imports from other countries. The US-China trade war is also not showing signs of cooling down,” Vuong said.

    Nguyen Xuan Cuong, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, said at the conference that 2019 was going to be a more difficult year after 2018’s windfall.

    “We’ve hit very high targets last year, so going even higher is extremely difficult. In addition, world trade is unstable, U.S.-China trade relations have not returned to normal, and Brexit remains unfinished. These are difficult challenges for our industrial and agricultural sectors this year,” said Cuong.

    He suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Trade supports growth in the agricultural sector, using its influence on supply chain areas like marketing and distribution.

    Vietnam had an export surplus of $7.2 billion in 2018, three times higher than that of 2017 and the highest in the past decade.

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  • Coffee exports jump for Korean firm

    Coffee exports jump for Korean firm

    Namyang Dairy Products said Friday its coffee exports jumped more than 20 percent in 2018 on market diversification and the rising popularity of Korean pop culture abroad. Overseas shipments of its freeze-dried coffee and instant coffee products totaled 36 billion won ($32 million) last year, compared with 28 billion won a year earlier.

    Exports of freeze-dried coffee totaled 2,000 tons last year, compared with 1,500 tons a year earlier. The value rose to 30 billion won from 23 billion won. The company also exported 50 million instant coffee mixes, up from 40 million the previous year.

    A company official attributed the export jump to its development of premium products as well as the overseas popularity of Korean pop culture.

    Namyang Dairy Products said it will ramp up efforts to diversify its export markets to Europe. Last year, Korea’s overall exports of coffee products came to 75,100 tons, up slightly from 75,000 tons a year earlier.

    Meanwhile, Korea’s exports of milk powder surged to 32.5 billion won last year from 26 billion won a year earlier.

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  • Indian rice prices slip as demand lags; Vietnam awaits major harvest

    Indian rice prices slip as demand lags; Vietnam awaits major harvest

    Rice export prices slipped in India as the rupee weakened and demand waned, prompting buyers to turn to other markets such as Vietnam. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety eased to $379-$384 per tonne this week from the $382-$387 range last week. “Demand is still weak due to higher prices,” said an exporter based in Kakinada in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, adding that despite the fall, prevailing high rates were prompting buyers to look at other markets, such as Vietnam.

    The Indian rupee hit a month low on Thursday, increasing exporters’ margins from overseas sales and thereby prompting a reduction in prices.

    Export prices in India had shot up after the central state of Chhattisgarh, a leading rice producer, raised minimum paddy buying prices to 2,500 rupees per 100 kg from 1,750 rupees.

    In neighboring Bangladesh, an increase in domestic rates for rice could prompt the government to cut the import duty on the staple grain, traders said.

    The south Asian country, which emerged as a major importer of the grain in 2017 after floods destroyed crops, imposed a 28 percent duty in June last year to support its farmers after local production revived.

    In Vietnam, rates for 5 percent broken rice fell to $355-$360 a tonne from $370-$375 last week ahead of the country’s largest harvest, expected to begin in two weeks.

    “Indonesia’s state food procurement agency’s recent announcement that it may not import rice this year has also weighed on prices,” a Ho Chi Minh City-based source said.

    “We are negotiating a deal for around 10,000 tonnes to be delivered late February, and we are stuck at pricing. We’re asking for $360 and they are offering $345,” the trader said, adding that the shipment would be bound for Africa.”

    Another trader said China’s move to limit rice shipments from Vietnam may not be as bad as some traders initially feared.

    “It’s only the beginning of the year now and importing countries can change their import plans, especially when hit by natural disasters,” the trader said.

    In second biggest exporter Thailand, prices of the benchmark 5 percent broken variety widened to $385-$400, free on board Bangkok, from $390-$400 the previous week, mostly due to fluctuations in the value of the domestic currency.

    “Demand remains flat, but some exporters are starting to talk about possible orders from the Philippines,” a Bangkok-based trader said.

    The Thai market is likely to see additional supplies flowing in toward the end of this month, from the seasonal harvest, and this could in turn move prices, another trader in Bangkok said.

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  • Vietnam seafood export remains red

    Vietnam seafood export remains red

    Agifish, a major seafood company, reported a second straight year of losses in 2018 as both exports and domestic sales fell. The recently released 2018 audited financial report of one of Vietnam’s 10 largest seafood export companies puts its loss at VND178 billion ($7.66 million). The An Giang Fisheries Import Export Joint Stock Company, to give its formal name, had lost VND190 billion ($8.2 million) a year earlier.

    The company said the loss came as sales downed 43 percent to VND1.29 trillion ($55.27 million) in 2018, due to lower fish exports and domestic sales as well as lower revenues from by-products.

    The poor performance last year caused auditors to raise doubts about the company’s ability to remain a going concern, but the management rejected this, saying it would increase domestic and export sales, adjust prices and reduce costs to return to the black in 2019.

    Agifish has total assets of VND1.23 trillion ($52.92 million) and debts of VND800 billion ($34.42 million).

    The Vietnamese seafood industry faced some challenges last year such as being subject to a “yellow card” warning by the European Commission for failing to demonstrate sufficient progress in the fight against illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. There were also technical barriers and anti-dumping duties in several markets.

    Seafood export value rose 5.8 percent year-on-year in 2018 to reach $8.8 billion, according to the Vietnam Customs.

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  • Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia posted a wider than expected trade deficit in December, bringing the gap for 2018 to the largest ever, the Central Statistics Agency, or BPS, said on Tuesday. December’s trade deficit was $1.10 billion, in a third consecutive month where the gap was wider than market expectations. A Reuters poll had expected a deficit of $930 million. Southeast Asia’s largest economy had a deficit of $8.57 billion in 2018, the widest ever, a stark contrast to its $11.84 billion surplus in 2017, BPS chief Suhariyanto said.

    Last year was challenging because exports had slowed at a time when imports surged due to a recovering domestic economy, said Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata in Jakarta. This year would probably be equally challenging, he said.

    “Global economic growth is stagnating. Growth in our major trading partners such as China, the United States, Japan and Europe is slowing. If we can’t find new destinations for our products, export growth could slow further,” Josua said, noting that falling oil prices could cool down imports.

    Economists also warned that the trade data could mean Indonesia’s current-account deficit in the final quarter of 2018 was also wider than expected.

    Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo previously said the current-account gap in the fourth quarter was expected at more than 3 percent of gross domestic product, though the full-year gap was seen at about 3 percent.

    The authorities issued a slew of measures to control imports last year, including mandating wider use of biodiesel, raising import tax and delaying big, import-heavy infrastructure projects.

    The central bank also raised interest rates six times by a total of 175 basis points last year to try to bring the current-account gap down, and Perry said the deficit in 2019 was expected at 2.5 percent.

    Fakhrul Fulvian, Trimegah Sekuritas economist, said December trade data proved that Indonesia may need to slow its GDP expansion further to “bring back the balance” and improve the current-account deficit.

    In December, exports dropped 4.62 percent to $14.18 billion on a yearly basis, a second month of contraction, compared with the poll estimate of 1.81 percent increase, largely because of a slump in shipments of mining products.

    Exports to China, Indonesia’s largest trading partner, also fell in December mostly because of a decline in coal and steel sales.

    Meanwhile, December imports were worth $15.28 billion, 1.16 percent up from a year ago, but slower than the forecast of 6.6 percent.

  • Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    A full-blown trade war could drag Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2% this year, from an earlier projection of 4.7%, according to Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd head of research and chief economist Alan Tan. Tan said if the trade spat between the US and China were to escalate to a situation where tariffs are fully implemented on all Chinese goods, Malaysia’s GDP growth could be hit closer to 1.5 percentage point.

    “If Malaysia’s GDP is at 5%, the 1.5% will push the GDP growth down to 3.5%,” he told reporters at the press conference in conjunction with the bank’s launch ceremony of its Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) facility for retail investors yesterday.

    “Malaysia is an open economy and is still relying on trade. As we know, China today is the major market for Malaysia and if the global trade war were to escalate, we think that the Chinese economy, which has already shown signs of slowing down, may slow even further.

    “Therefore, we are of the view that Malaysia’s exports to China will be slowing down towards the second half of 2019 assuming if the trade war continues to drag on,” he added.

    However, Tan said domestic demand will continue to support the economic growth this year driven by several measures introduced by the government in Budget 2019, supporting the bank’s forecast on the GDP growth at the region of 4.7% this year.

    Additionally, he said that the bank opined that this time around, both US and China will be more willing to negotiate and possibly come out with a trade compromise by end of the first quarter this year, in view of the external uncertainties and weaker business sentiment.

    “Going into 2019, we already seeing signs of slowing down in the US and China. Unlike six months ago, where both economies continue to do relatively well,” he noted.

    Therefore, he said the bank believes that in the second half of 2019, following the resolutions of the global trade war, coupled with the weakening US dollar, interest will come back to the emerging market, including Malaysia.

    However, Tan said the bank expects that the market will remain flat in the first half of 2019 and looking at end-2019 target for the FBM KLCI at 1,810 points.

    On ringgit, he said the local currency is expected to appreciate to RM3.90-RM4.00 level in the second half of 2019, and possibly ending the year at RM3.90 against the US dollar, as the greenback is likely to soften towards the second half of the year.

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  • Amazon offers Vietnamese products route to global market

    Amazon offers Vietnamese products route to global market

    Amazon is collaborating with Vietnam’s trade ministry to sell the country’s products on its system globally. Vu Ba Phu, director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Trade Promotion Agency, said while announcing news of the collaboration that the U.S. e-commerce company would help especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) develop their brands on its website.

    It would also train Vietnamese firms in e-commerce and selling on its system, he said. Vietnamese businesses would be able to reach over 300 million users of the world’s largest online retailer by participating in Amazon Global Selling, he added.

    Bernard Tay, Amazon’s regional director for Southeast Asia, said Vietnam is among the top countries in the region in terms of capability to export via Amazon.

    It has strengths in household products, textile, footwear, and handicrafts, items that sell well on Amazon, he said.

    Vietnamese firms need to make products adopted to global trends and improve their English and branding skills, Tay added.

    Phu said Vietnamese SMEs would have to meet the high standards in many markets.

    “Big markets like the E.U., U.S. and Japan all have strict regulations on product quality and origin, and Vietnamese exports will have to comply with them.”

    Last year Amazon had organized a number of training programs for Vietnamese SMEs on how to sell on its system.

    Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba is also interested in Vietnamese sellers. It started looking for sellers on its AliExpress website last July, saying it wanted to enable them to reach over 200 markets around the world.

    Vietnam’s e-commerce market grew by 25 percent in 2017, according to the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM), which expects this rate to continue until 2020.

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