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Retail News Asia is committed to providing both local and global retailers with the latest Finance news throughout the Asian market. This on a daily base.

  • Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Increasing optimism that China and the United States will be able to hammer out a deal to help ease their trade war provided the impetus for more gains across Asian markets today. After taking a battering in December and suffering a shaky start to 2019, confidence is slowly returning to equity trading floors, though dealers remain on edge. Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell provided the platform for a rally last week when he said the central bank had no “preset” plan for lifting interest rates and was “listening” to markets, signalling that the pace of hikes could slow this year.

    Fear of higher borrowing rates was a major cause of last year’s stocks losses.

    The mood among dealers held this week as officials from China and the US hunkered down for trade negotiations in Beijing that have extended into a third day. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday described them as going “very well”.

    Bloomberg also reported White House sources as saying Trump is keen to get a deal done in order to boost stock markets, which he regards as a gauge of his success.

    And The Wall Street Journal said the two were moving in the right direction, with China ready to buy more US goods and services, while further talks at cabinet level were being lined up next week.

    The progress in talks “is fuelling investor optimism suggesting there might be a light at the end of the trade war tumultuous tunnel”, said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trade at OANDA.

    Hong Kong rose 2.3% – a fourth straight gain that has seen the index put on around 5% – and Shanghai ended up 0.75%, while Tokyo closed 1.15% higher. Sydney jumped 1% with Singapore, while Taipei and Wellington were each more than 1% higher. Manila surged more than 2% and there were also gains in Mumbai and Jakarta.

    Seoul added 2% as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing with speculation swirling that he will meet Trump for a second summit later this year.

    The gains also come after a strong reading on US jobs creation Friday, which soothed worries that the American economy was slowing down.

    “When the dust settles, if it ever does, the fear of recession will prove to be premature,“ Bob Doll, an analyst at Nuveen Asset Management said.

    “We will have growth, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace and we will have… earnings, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace, but acceptable for investors and that will allow equity markets to move higher.”

  • World Bank sees slower global economic growth of 2.9% this year

    World Bank sees slower global economic growth of 2.9% this year

    The growth of the global economy is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2019 compared with 3% in 2018, the World Bank said on Tuesday, citing elevated trade tensions and international trade moderation. “At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead,“ World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva said in the semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report.

    The World Bank outlook comes as the United States and China have been engaged in a bitter trade dispute, which has jolted financial markets across the world for months. The two economies have imposed tit-for-tat duties on each other’s goods, although there have been signs of progress.

    Growth in the US is likely to slow to 2.5% this year from 2.9% in 2018, while China is expected to grow at 6.2% in the year compared with 6.5% in 2018, according to the World Bank.

    Emerging market economies are expected to grow at 4.2% this year, with advanced economies expected to grow at 2%, the World Bank said.

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  • AEON Thailand and Mastercard celebrate new year with promotion

    AEON Thailand and Mastercard celebrate new year with promotion

    Mr.Nuntawat Chotvijit (2nd from left), Executive Director of AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public Limited Company together with Mr.Donald Ong (2nd from right), Country Manager Thailand and Myanmar, Mastercard joined hands to give away a special year-end promotion for AEON Mastercard credit cardholders. With every spending of 1,000 Baht, customers will be entered win a 3 days 2 nights Singapore travel package that includes an Economy Class roundtrip to Singapore, by Singapore Airlines” accommodation at the Resorts World™ Sentosa Universal Studios Singapore™, along withfun-filled experience at world-class theme parks such as Universal Studios Singapore and S.E.A. Aquarium™ A total of 10 prizes will be up for grabs (2 people/prize) worth a combined value of 700,000 baht.

     

  • Bank Negara: US$101.4b international reserves at end-2018

    Bank Negara: US$101.4b international reserves at end-2018

    Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) international reserves remained unchanged at US$101.4 billion (about RM417.06 billion) as at Dec 31, 2018, from Dec 14, 2018. The central bank said in a statement that the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.4 months of retained imports and is 1.0 time the short-term external debt.

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  • Vietnam targets credit growth of 14 pct in 2019

    Vietnam targets credit growth of 14 pct in 2019

    The State Bank of Vietnam targets credit growth of 14 percent this year, the same as last year. The focus of new loans would be priority sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and small and medium enterprises, Nguyen Thi Hong, Deputy Governor of the central bank, said. Credit growth in the Vietnamese banking sector last year was 14 percent, the lowest rate since 2014.

    The figure announced by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Monday was well short of the 17 percent targeted for the year.

    According to officials from the SBV’s Department of Credit for Economic Sectors, lending grew sharply in the early months of the year before tapering off. It was primarily targeted at priority sectors such as manufacturing and processing.

    Credit to the commercial and services sectors saw the highest growth rate, 16 percent. Lending to industry and construction grew by 12.1 percent and to agriculture, by 8.8 percent.

    Overall, interest rates remained steady despite rising interest rates in global markets. In Vietnam, interest rates are commonly around 6-9 percent a year for short-term and 9-11 percent a year for medium and long-term.

    The non-performing loans ratio was down to 1.89 percent from 1.99 percent in 2017 and 2.46 percent in 2016.

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  • Petronas starts trial runs at crude distillation unit for Rapid

    Petronas starts trial runs at crude distillation unit for Rapid

    Malaysian state oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) started trial runs at the crude distillation unit (CDU) for a joint-venture refinery with Saudi Aramco in Malaysia last week, two sources with knowledge of the matter said this week. The move marks a major milestone for the US$2.7 billion (RM11 billion) project known as Rapid – or Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development – in Pengerang, Johor. The test runs put the project on track for commercial operation in 2019.

    The company also received its second cargo of 2 million barrels of Saudi crude last week, according to the sources and data on Refinitiv Eikon.

    Petronas could not be immediately reached for comment.

    Rapid consists of a 300,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery and secondary refining units that will allow the companies to produce refined oil products that meet Euro 5 fuel specifications. The refinery is linked to a petrochemical complex with a capacity of 7.7 million tonnes a year.

    The first crude oil cargo for Rapid was offloaded at Pengerang in September.

    The refinery is one of four new complexes in Asia that represent a combined processing capacity of nearly 1.3 million bpd scheduled to start up from late 2018 to 2019.

    Another of the four complexes, a 400,000 bpd refinery, owned by Hengli Petrochemical in Dalian in northeast China, started trial runs in December.

    These plants will increase Asia’s crude demand while adding to fuel output in the region.

  • MSIG Hong Kong names Philip Kent as new CEO

    MSIG Hong Kong names Philip Kent as new CEO

    General insurer, MSIG, has announced the appointment of Philip Kent to the role of Chief Executive Officer (CEO). He succeeds former CEO, Kenneth J. Reid, who has retired after 26 years with MSIG Hong Kong. Philip Kent most recently served as Executive Vice President of Planning for the Singapore-based regional holding company, MSIG Holdings Asia, over the last two years leading business development across the region and spearheading the regional digital strategy in Asia. With more than 28 years in the insurance industry, he has broad insurance market experience encompassing leadership and technical roles across Asia, including Indonesia, Thailand and Hong Kong.

    “We are pleased to have Philip lead MSIG Hong Kong as CEO. His accomplishments and track record of building strong partner relationships and inspiring colleagues make him an ideal leader. He is also very familiar with the market having worked in Hong Kong for 11 years,” said Alan J. Wilson, regional CEO, MSIG Holdings Asia.
    “The industry is dynamic with many insurers going digital and leveraging on new technologies. With Philip’s experience, he will be able to continue the digital transformation that Ken has started for MSIG, ensuring that we are well placed to continue serving the needs of our customers in Hong Kong,” he added.

    Outgoing CEO Kenneth J. Reid has retired after leading MSIG Hong Kong as CEO for 13 years and after a successful career of nearly 35 years with the Group. During his tenure, Mr Reid led MSIG Hong Kong to more than double its gross written premiums and played an instrumental role in forming a partnership with DUAL Asia in 2009, significantly expanding MSIG’s business portfolio. He also contributed to Hong Kong’s general insurance industry as Chairman of the Motor Insurer’s Bureau of Hong Kong from 2015 to 2017.

    “Ken’s vision, accomplishments and impressive track record of building strong client relationships, have materially strengthened MSIG Hong Kong. He leaves a firm foundation and a resilient company. I would like to sincerely thank him on behalf of the Board and the Group for his substantial contribution to MSIG,” Mr Wilson said.

     

  • Mobile Payments in China is expected to witness three-fold growth by 2023

    Mobile Payments in China is expected to witness three-fold growth by 2023

    Low credit card usage, and increasing popularity of eCommerce coupled with a growing middle class in China have accelerated the growth of mobile payments in the country. China has also seen an increase in cross-border payment transactions, primarily due to growth in sectors such as eCommerce, travel and overseas education. Frost & Sullivan recently reportedthat nearly 65% of Chinese tourists have used mobile payments abroad, approximately six times higher than the average non-Chinese traveler.

    “In China, eCommerce is a powerful incentive for users to purchase smartphones that enable mobile payment features. The social aspect that mobile payments brings can serve as an integral step in building trust and learning about digital services, especially in rural communities,” said Ms  Mei Lee Quah, Industry Principal Analyst, Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Practice, Digital Transformation at Frost & Sullivan.

    The market of mobile payments services in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% from 2017 to 2023, growing three-fold from US$29.93 trillion to US$96.73 trillion. The total number of active mobile payment customers is expected to reach 956 million by 2023 from 562 million in 2017 which will attract additional investments from mobile payments market participants.

    Frost & Sullivan’s recently published report, Chinese Mobile Payments Services Market, Forecast to 2023, highlights the growth opportunities presented in the market, namely:

    •    Rural region penetration
    •    Addressing the elderly market

    The report also offers detailed analysis of the mobile payment market in China with a focus on key market players such as AliPay and WeChat Pay, and their business and revenue models. The Chinese market for mobile payment offers not only market opportunities for solution providers intending to operate within the domestic market but also learning points for global mobile payment solution providers.

    Frost & Sullivan predicts that China will continue to be a major player in the global mobile payment services market and service providers in the country will continue to focus on improving and enhancing security on mobile payment platforms.

  • Vietcombank to sell 3 percent stake to foreign investors

    Vietcombank to sell 3 percent stake to foreign investors

    Vietcombank, Vietnam’s largest bank by market cap, has received permission from the securities watchdog to sell a 3 percent stake to foreign investors. The green light from the State Securities Commission (SSC) will allow the lender to make a private placement of 3 percent as part of its plan to ultimately sell 10 percent. The 3 percent could fetch around $270 million based on its current stock price.

    Vietcombank last month received approval from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to increase its charter capital by selling 10 percent to the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and existing strategic partner, Japanese bank Mizuho.

    Now GIC will buy 2.55 percent while Mizuho Bank will buy the remaining 0.45 percent to keep its current 15 percent stake unchanged.

    Last September the SBV approved Vietcombank’s proposal to increase its charter capital from VND35.98 trillion ($1.55 billion) to VND39.57 trillion ($1.7 billion). The capital has remained unchanged since 2016.

    Vietcombank is one of many Vietnamese lenders that have been seeking to increase capital to meet international capital adequacy norms.

    The country’s banks need to increase their charter capital to meet the Basel II capital adequacy ratio (CAR).

    The accords prescribe capital of 8 percent of risk-weighted assets for all financial institutions, including in Vietnam, to cover operational risks.

    State-owned BIDV, the second biggest bank by market capitalization, said last October it wanted to sell new shares to South Korea’s KEB Hana Bank, giving it a 15 percent stake in the company. The sale would be worth $735 million.

    Vietnam caps foreign ownership of banks at 30 percent. The country has nine wholly-owned foreign banks, four state-owned banks and 31 domestic joint-stock banks.

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  • Indonesian Consumers Face Harassment by Fintech Debt Collectors

    Indonesian Consumers Face Harassment by Fintech Debt Collectors

    As a result, she faces constant harassment by debt collectors who call her, wait outside her home, and even go as far as contacting her parents, family members, friends and acquaintances. “I was not expecting these fintech firms to subject their customers to such dreadful practices. They accessed my contact list and messages [on my mobile phone]. They even called my current bosses,” Cintia said.

    “My friends even told me that these fintech firms were defaming and harassing them, sending my friends’ personal photos to their bosses and some of the people in their contact lists, calling my friends imposters,” she added.

    The trouble started a few months ago after she borrowed Rp 1 million each from Uang Kita, Kantong Darurat and Perdana (previously known as Rupiah Plus).

    Risks Associated With Collateral-Free Loans

    Each fintech firm has a different set of requirements borrowers must meet, but most of them do not ask for any collateral, which comes with one major drawback: high interest rates.Despite customers only needing an identity card and a cellphone number to borrow emergency cash, these loans carry interest rates of 1 percent per day for a maximum tenor of 14 days. This exceeds by far the already steep interest rates of 29.9 percent per year that credit card companies charge their customers.

    Customers must also be prepared for some unpleasant treatment from these fintech firms if they fall behind on their repayments.

    “At first, I started borrowing money just for fun but I ended up with these debts and I’m making one debt to pay another debt. I want to pay it off in installments, but they refuse to accept it. They want me to settle the loans in full,” Cintia said.

    Misna Wati, who works for an undisclosed company in Jakarta, has owed money to 25 fintech firms since May last year. She said she regularly receives harassing phone calls and WhatsApp messages from debt collectors and representatives of the firms.

    “We are worried all the time. We did not expect them to be able to access our contacts, call logs, even messages,” said Misna, who declined to state her age and occupation.

    Misna and Cintia are now both seeking assistance from the Jakarta Legal Aid Institute (LBH).

    Need for Strong Data Protection

    With numerous reports about breaches of data privacy by the financial industry, the House of Representatives must accelerate the process involved in passing the data protection bill.The bill, which was supposed to be enacted last year, has now been included in the 2019 priority list of the National Legislation Program, which means that the House might deliberate it sometime this year.

    While Ministerial Regulation No. 20 of 2016 is intended to protects users’ personal data on the electronic system, it is deemed insufficient in preventing large-scale data breaches.

    The regulation only stipulates administrative penalties for violations or the settling of disputes between offenders and system providers or data owners, but does not allow for the recovery of damages related to customer data breaches.

    The bill, if it is passed into law, would apply both in Indonesia and abroad, but only to Indonesian citizens and Indonesia-based business entities.

    The regulation is very important as Indonesia has more than 143 million internet users, which is more than half of the country’s population, according to data compiled by the Internet Service Providers Association (APJII) in 2017.

    Fintech’s Popularity

    Fintech services have gained popularity in Indonesia over the past few years due to their seamless technology systems, innovation, customer-focused approach and simplicity. Fintech companies also offer payment systems, financial assistance and fundraising options.According to a joint study by global technology giant Google and Singaporean wealth fund Temasek, Indonesia’s internet economy – the financial value of all digital services – could exceed $100 billion by 2025, compared with $27 billion last year.

    But despite numerous benefits, the microcredit industry is still poorly regulated in Indonesia and the government is currently dealing with a rising number of illegal or unlicensed fintech firms operating in the country.

    The government banned 738 illegal financial technology websites and applications last year in a bid to protect consumers.

    As Indonesia is now one of the centers of the digital financial industry in the region, it attracts numerous companies from neighboring countries that establish a presence in the country, but which often choose not to obtain licenses from industry regulator, the Financial Services Authority (OJK).

    Most of the unlicensed fintech apps and websites are from China, Malaysia and Thailand. These fintech firms do not have registered offices, either in Indonesia or in their home countries.

    “The OJK has instructed us to ban unlicensed fintech websites and apps,” Ferdinandus Setu, acting head of public relations and communication at the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, said in a statement last week.

    He said the ban so far applies to 211 websites and 527 smartphone apps, which seemed to have been increasing since August last year.

    There were 171 illegal fintech apps available for download on Google Play in November last year, compared with 144 in August. The ministry also recorded 77 illegal fintech websites in September.

    The ministry said no illegal fintech websites and apps were recorded between January and July last year.

    Ferdinandus said besides the OJK’s instruction, the communication ministry’s actions were also carried out after collecting public reports through a web crawler known as AIS, which filters out content deemed illegal under Indonesian law, such as pornography, the spreading of false news and the promotion of terrorism and radicalism.

    The ministry encouraged members of the public to report websites offering financial services that may be deemed illegal, or fintech companies that are not registered with the OJK.

    Reports can be submitted to aduankonten.id, or @aduankonten on Twitter. A task force comprising more than 13 ministries and agencies will investigate the reports.

  • Indonesia’s BRI Signs Partnership Agreement With Alipay

    Indonesia’s BRI Signs Partnership Agreement With Alipay

    Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Indonesia’s biggest state-owned lender, started the year with key strategic announcements, including an alliance with Chinese payment platform Alipay and plans to acquire a local insurance company and a small lender. BRI signed a memorandum of understanding with Alipay, a subsidiary of Chinese technology giant Alibaba, on Thursday to secure an opportunity to serve the growing number of Chinese tourists visiting Indonesia.

    “As China has its own payment system, we must be able to facilitate their [Chinese tourists’] needs. This move is aimed at supporting the country’s tourism industry,” Handayani, consumer director at BRI, said after an extraordinary shareholder meeting on Thursday.

    He said there are several matters that must still be discussed, including the acquisition of a permit.

    “We are currently integrating the business operation. We are now developing the IT system [for the service],” Handayani said, adding that the payment service will be launched in tourism areas, such as Bali, first.

    About 2 million Chinese tourists visited Indonesia between January and November last year, representing a 14 percent increase from the corresponding period in 2017.

    Insurance Company

    In addition to the partnership with Alipay, the lender has also set aside Rp 1.5 trillion ($105 million) this year to acquire an insurance company focused on covering property damage. BRI currently only has a life insurer, BRI Life.”This year, we want to have an insurance company. We are going to have a complete service in the financial industry,” BRI president director Suprajarto said.

    He said BRI was still observing the market and exploring several candidates before making a choice. The acquisition is slated for completion in the first half of this year, he added.

    Suprajarto said the acquisition of a general insurer would take precedence over the plan to acquire a small lender.

    This is because the Financial Services Authority (OJK) has asked BRI to acquire a lender in the categories BUKU I (banks with core capital below Rp 1 trillion) or BUKU II (banks with core capital between Rp 1 trillion and Rp 5 trillion).

    “It requires a large amount of funding, so we are now focusing on organic growth [instead of acquiring another lender],” Suprajarto said.

    BRI posted Rp 23.5 trillion in net profit in the first nine months of last year, which was 15 percent higher than the same period in 2017, thanks to a 17 percent surge in loan growth to Rp 809 trillion between January and September.

    BRI Appoints Deputy President Director

    BRI also announced the appointment of Sunarso as deputy president director and the dismissal of Jeffry J. Wurangian as commissioner and Kuswiyoto as director of corporate banking.Handayani said the changes were subject to approval by central bank.

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  • US-China talks on bilateral trade to impact Malaysia’s equity

    US-China talks on bilateral trade to impact Malaysia’s equity

    The discussion between the US and China with respect to their bilateral trade would likely be the highlight for the equity market next week, says an economist. It could also be a source of market instability, said Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid. He said market players are currently worried about the turbulence across global markets.

    “Generally businesses have become more risk-averse as some countries especially China and Asean nations had recorded below the 50-point demarcation line in their manufacturing index.

    “In fact, the US ISM manufacturing index has shown a similar trend, falling by 5.2 points to 54.1 in December 2018.

    “Naturally, businesses would reduce their capital expenditure and labour hiring as they would become wary of demand prospects, so we can expect equity markets to remain weak in the near term,” he said.

    Mohd Afzanizam said the current support level is at 1,653.

    The FBMKLCI might test this level should the discussion not pan out favourably, he added.

    For the holiday-shortened week, the FBM KLCI was traded mostly lower, mainly affected by external factors such as US political uncertainties, mounting concerns over poor global growth and the talks on the potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

    The local bourse and its subsidiaries were closed on Tuesday for the New Year holiday.

    On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the benchmark FBM KLCI settled 22.29 points weaker at 1,669.78.

    The FBM Emas Index depreciated 124.28 points to 11,413.02, the FBMT100 Index decreased 131.24 points to 11,323.34, the FBM 70 declined 67.72 points to 13,023.80, the FBM Emas Syariah Index erased 152.51 points to 11,356.91 but the FBM Ace edged up 34.23 points to 4,294.43.

    Sector-wise, the Finance Index lost 99.90 points to 17,241.79, the Industrial Products and Services Index eased 1.18 points to 165.63, while the Plantation Index was 16.84 points weaker at 6,880.90.

    Comparing Friday-to-Friday, the weekly turnover rose to 7.22 billion units worth RM4.79 billion from 5.70 billion units worth RM4.15 billion.

    Main Market volume increased to 5.17 billion units valued at RM4.37 billion versus 4.16 billion shares valued at RM3.85 billion.

    Warrants turnover advanced to 1.23 billion units worth RM282.94 million compared with 948.80 million units worth RM202.97 million.

    The ACE Market volume appreciated to 719.60 billion shares valued at RM127.20 million against 556.26 million shares valued at RM90.05 million.

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  • Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow down this year though it will remain a regional outperformer, according to leading global analysts. Fitch Solutions, an arm of Fitch Ratings, said in a report released Wednesday it expects Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow to 6.5 percent in 2019 in line with a wider trend of slowing global growth, but added the country would remain one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia.

    The economy grew by 7.1 percent last year, the fastest rate of expansion in 11 years, according to official data. This was well above the 6.5-6.7 percent target set by the National Assembly.

    “Its increasing openness and reliance on foreign investment suggests that it is unlikely to be spared from the global growth slowdown arising from rising trade protectionism and tighter financial conditions.

    “Although we believe that Vietnam’s manufacturing sector and economy will continue to outperform the region over the coming quarters, growth is likely to face headwinds stemming from rising global trade disruptions and tightening financial conditions, which will negatively impact global economic growth and risk sentiment,” Fitch Solutions stated.

    The World Bank Group in its bi-annual report on Vietnam issued last month said the country’s GDP growth is likely to slow from 6.8 percent in 2018 to 6.6 percent this year as the global economy weakens.

    Weaker global demand for exports and reduced investment and trade flows as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates are other risks for Vietnam’s economy, Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s lead economist for Vietnam, said.

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a forecast released last month for the East Asia and Pacific region projected Vietnam’s growth at 6.8 percent for 2019, slightly lower than the 6.9 percent it expected for 2018. These rates are the second highest in the forecast behind only India’s.

    Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, up 9.1 percent year-on-year. With exports rising by 13.8 percent to $244.72 billion and imports at $237.51 billion, the country achieved its highest ever trade surplus of $7.21 billion last year.

    Fitch Solutions said in 2019 the manufacturing sector would remain a key economic growth driver and outperform the region.

    Vietnam has grown to become a manufacturing powerhouse, particularly in electronics, due to its relatively cheap and large workforce, geographical advantages, attractive tax breaks, stable political environment, and open trade policies.

    The opening up of the Vietnamese economy also came at an opportune time as China began to shift away from lower-end and export-oriented manufacturing to focus on the domestic economy.

    Vietnam’s continued commitment to economic liberalisation will also attract foreign manufacturers seeking to leverage its preferential trade deals.

    The country is a signatory to 10 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs), with six more trade pacts in the offing, including the highly touted Vietnam-EU FTA.

    Fitch Solutions added that trade tensions between China and the US would continue to drive up costs for manufacturers operating in China, pushing companies to outsource to its neighbor Vietnam, which is more competitive in terms of wages.

  • Experts express cautious optimism for Vietnam stock market

    Experts express cautious optimism for Vietnam stock market

    Last year’s uncertainties and unclear future scenarios are reflected in more cautious assessments than number crunching for 2019. Nguyen Duy Hung, chairman of SSI, a leading Saigon broker, said that with a drop of over 20 percent from its peak, when the VN-Index climbed to 1,204 points on April 9, 2018, Vietnam’s stock exchanges have entered a bear market.

    The benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange lost 1.52 per cent to end Thursday at 878.22 points. On Friday afternoon, it rose to 880.9 points.

    Perhaps it will take between 8 to 11 months for the market to recover, Hung said. “Historical data suggests that it would take 21 months for a bear market to recover its old peak after hitting bottom.”

    But the SSI chairman said the main challenges facing the stock market in 2019 include worries posed by the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, and increasing geopolitical risks.

    “At this point, no one can say how this war will unfold or predict how widespread the impact will be. Along with the decline in oil prices signaling difficulties of the world economy, the rise in geopolitical risks paint a picture of uncertainties for 2019,” Hung said.

    Also mentioning key challenges for 2019, Securities Commission chairman Vu Bang named the slowdown of Chinese and global economies, the escalating trade war and risks from expanding global debt.

    However, these challenges come with opportunities to be seized. The trade war, according to the SSI chairman, is a chance for Vietnam to increase its exports. This does not mean market share growth will happen immediately, he said, explaining that it was an opportunity to build a medium to long term strategy, innovating the country’s economic growth model based on production and commercial activities.

    Vu Bang also emphasized the advantages of macro factors, saying the continuous high growth rate in recent years was a factor that would increase the attractiveness of Vietnam’s market in the region.

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent in 2018 retained its status as one of the best performing economies in the world. It was the highest growth the country has experienced since 2008 and compared with the median estimate of 6.9 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 12 economists.

    Offering a more optimistic view, Tran Le Minh, deputy general director of VietFund Management, said that the market in 2019 still holds several favorable factors, including the fact that the decline in VN-Index was relatively slower than in other parts of the world.

    “Why is the market declining more slowly? The reality must be seen in macro factors, growth and the fact that foreign institutional investors continue to invest in the market. Cash flow from foreign investors will continue to be a highlight this year,” said Minh, who predicted that the VN-Index will not fall below its current level by the end of 2019.

    Foreign direct investment disbursement in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    For the market players’ perspective, 2019 is not going to be an easy year, experts say.

    “With many unpredictable factors caused by geopolitical and commercial tensions, most analysts agree that the global economy is entering the end of a growth cycle and 2019 will be a difficult year for the stock market,” said an analyst team with Rong Viet Securities (VDSC).

    It will be difficult for Vietnam to buck the global trend, they felt.

    Bernard Lapointe, head of research of Rong Viet Securities said recently that he was optimistic but not too optimistic about the market this year. He expects the VN-Index to stay within the 900-1,000 points range until the end of 2019.

    Meanwhile, Michel Tosto, head of Institutional Sales and Brokerage of Viet Capital Securities, predicted that the VN-Index could reach 1,060 points at the end of 2019.

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  • Ringgit likely to trade in cautious mode this week

    Ringgit likely to trade in cautious mode this week

    The ringgit is expected to face a challenging upcoming week as the market uncertainty over trade tensions and a slowdown in the global economy encourage investors to remain risk-off. FXTM Research Global Head of Currency Strategy Jameel Ahmad said that the local unit may face the risk of falling below RM4.15 against the greenback next week.

    “The local currency has actually performed reasonably well this week during a period of heightened market uncertainty due to concerns over a global economic slowdown in 2019, and I actually would have expected the currency to fall lower due to investor reluctance to invest in emerging markets when there is significant market uncertainty,” he said.

    He said the ringgit and its emerging market peers across the globe face significant downside risks heading into the next trading week, as global financial markets continue to be gripped by market turmoil.

    “The first few days of the new trading year have not been kind to financial markets, with a number of global stocks selling off and a “flash crash” in the currency markets leading to losses in a number of currencies including the British pound, Australian dollar and Turkish lira while the Japanese yen surged across the board,” he added.

    Although the ringgit and its Asian peers got away from the flash crash in the market unscathed, he said the prolonged risk-off environment that is hurting risk appetite is encouraging expectations that emerging markets are at risk to another round of selling off.

    “I would keep a close eye on whether the ringgit falls below 4.15 next week, because this will raise market expectations that the currency of Malaysia will gradually return to the 4.20 levels over the coming weeks,” he said.

    For the week just ended, the ringgit closed mostly lower against the US dollar with market sentiment moved by global economic uncertainties and weak Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released early this week.

    On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the local note strengthened to 4.1340/1370 from 4.1500/1550 against the greenback.

    It went down against the Singapore dollar to 3.0357/0395 from 3.0336/0384 but improved against the British pound to 5.2378/2432 versus 5.2468/2548.

    Against the euro, the ringgit jumped to 4.7144/7199 from 4.7488/7550, but eased versus the Japanese yen to 3.8260/8298 from 3.7597/7653.