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Tag: Economy

  • Korean firm to set up halal ramen plant in Malaysia

    Korean firm to set up halal ramen plant in Malaysia

    FGV Holdings Bhd is looking to partner with South Korea’s Samyang Foods Co Ltd for the establishment of Samyang Halal’s production facilities in Malaysia. FGV told Bursa Malaysia that it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Samyang. The production facilities will focus on serving halal ramen and instant noodle products for Malaysia and global markets.

    FGV’s newly appointed CEO Datuk Haris Fadzilah Hassan said the collaboration is part of he group’s strategic direction to expand its downstream business by diversifying the product offerings and penetrating into new markets.

    Its logistics and support businesses sector is also set to benefit from this partnership by providing a total logistics supply chain solution.

    “With this MoU, FGV hopes to explore the opportunity for both parties to establish a halal ramen and instant noodle manufacturing plant in Malaysia. The global halal food market is one of the fastest growing segments in the food industry and is expected to reach more than US$740 billion in value by 2025,” Haris said.

    FGV said the collaboration will also give FGV access to Samyang’s supply chain, which includes cooking oil, vegetable fats and sugar for its existing ramen plant in Wonju, South Korea.

    Samyang is listed on the Korean Stock Exchange with a market capitalisation of KRW459.514 billion (RM1.68 billion). It is in the business of manufacturing and selling various food products such as ramen, snacks, dairy products, sauces, and frozen dumplings.

    FGV noted that its downstream entity Delima Oil Products Sdn Bhd (DOP) can leverage on Samyang’s strong R&D and global distribution networks to improve quality and expand the reach of its “Saji” products regionally and globally.

    “In addition, DOP will benefit from Samyang’s ver 50 years’ experience in the ramen and instant noodle industry to strengthen its own products and brand positioning.”

  • Companies, workers struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy

    Companies, workers struggle as cracks appear in China’s economy

    Cracks are opening in China’s mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs. The world’s second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging further in recent months. While gross domestic product grew at 6.6% in 2018 – a rate that would be the envy of most nations – China’s efforts to cut its debt mountain have weighed on the economy.

    Private businesses in particular face new hurdles as costs rise and financing becomes harder to come by, while the trade war with the United States has not helped.

    Here is a look at some of the struggles faced by Chinese companies and people:

    Game over for gamers

    Feeding China’s addiction to video games seemed an easy bet for Beijing Yixin Technology, a tech startup behind the mobile game Farm Take Home.

    The game allows players to harvest wheat, raise chickens and plant apple trees – a bucolic refuge from the pressures of urban China.

    But in real life, the tech firm has struggled to find investors.

    “In December our company’s funding ran out, we had an investment lined up, but the money never came through,” said chairman Cui Yi. “This month I arranged another investor, then he backed out too. I think we can’t hold out.”

    His company is not alone.

    Venture capital funding dried up at the end of last year. Total investment in the fourth quarter fell 13% from a year earlier, according to data from Preqin market research.

    Policymakers are partly to blame, pushing a war on debt and financial risk that has cut the funding flowing into investment firms, industry insiders say.

    Another government diktat halted new video game approvals for months – officially due to youth gaming addiction concerns – sending firms like Beijing Yixin into a deep freeze.

    Trade war

    Other companies are facing the fallout from the trade war with the United States.

    More than a handful of exporters have sought to get around US tariffs by building factories outside China, according to a review of public stock filings.

    Others are sending workers home early for Chinese New Year or cutting overtime.

    Last month China’s exports fell.

    “It has hit our profits,” Harry Shih, manager of Runfine Bearings in eastern Zhejiang province, said of the trade war.

    Washington slapped 25% taxes on many types of ball bearings in July. Shih said he had shared the cost increase with his customers, roughly half of whom are from the US.

    “Business is going down for most companies including factories. Like me they have the same problems, profits are going down” as costs rise, said Shih.

    Job crunch

    Official data shows unemployment at a stable rate, rising slightly to 4.9% last month. But independent data paints a different picture.

    In October-December advertised tech positions fell by 20% from a year earlier, after declining 51% in the third quarter, according to data from Zhaopin, China’s largest recruitment website and Renmin University.

    China’s economy “faces downward pressure, and to some extent this pressure will be transmitted to the job market,” said Meng Wei, a spokeswoman for the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state planner.

    A lawyer who consults on labour disputes, Guo Xuehai of Beijing Zhonghai Law Firm, said, “there are definitely more employees coming for help than before,” but added this was usually the case at this time of the year.

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  • Vietnam makes debut in Bloomberg innovative economy index

    Vietnam makes debut in Bloomberg innovative economy index

    Vietnam has for the first time entered the Bloomberg Innovation Index of the world’s 60 most innovative economies. It scored 45.92 out of 100 in the 2019 index. Other new entrants include India, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Bloomberg said: “The index analyzes dozens of criteria using seven metrics, including research and development spending, manufacturing capability and concentration of high-tech public companies.”

    Vietnam’s highest rankings were 34th in high-tech density and 39th in patent activity. It ranked a lowly 59th in productivity.

    Its productivity in 2017 was among the lowest in Asia despite growth, according to the Vietnam Annual Economic Report released by the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy last year.

    An average Vietnamese worker made VND60.73 million ($2,600), lower than the rate for Cambodia, Indonesia Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, it said.

    In the Bloomberg index, South Korea retained its top place from last year and was followed by Germany, Finland, Switzerland, and Israel.

    Other Southeast Asian countries were Singapore in sixth place, Malaysia (26th) and Thailand (40th).

  • Vietnamese banks report plunge in profits

    Vietnamese banks report plunge in profits

    While profit across the banking sector grew by an estimated 40 percent last year, VietinBank, LienVietPostBank and SaigonBank have reported steep declines. The biggest surprise came from state-owned VietinBank, the country’s second biggest lender by assets, which reported a 25 percent fall in profits before tax to go out of the group of five most profitable banks in the country.

    Le Duc Tho, its chairman, said this was a result of having to restrict operations last quarter to begin restructuring.

    Asset growth, credit growth and capital mobilization grew by 6-10 percent, lower than targeted.

    LienVietPostBank reported a 30 percent decline in profit before tax as a result of losses related to securities investments and low marginal interest rates.

    It achieved losses of nearly VND5 billion ($215,140) from securities investments whereas in 2017 it had made a profit of VND380 billion ($16.35 million).

    SaigonBank’s profit before tax fell by more than 26 percent due to provisioning for bad debts. The bank had to increase provision for bad debts by 22 percent to an amount equivalent to 87 percent of its profit from business operations.

    Its bad debts doubled in the first half of 2018 to nearly VND900 billion ($38.72 million), but by the end of the year it brought the rate down from 6.48 percent during mid-year to 2.2 percent. It involved provisioning of VND287 billion ($12.35 million).

    HSBC Vietnam CEO Pham Hong Hai said from 2019 bad debts could reemerge as a problem for banks after the recent lending spurt and the instability of the global financial markets.

    As a result, banks’ profits would most likely see a downward trend this year, he warned.

    The State Bank of Vietnam targets credit growth of 14 percent this year, the same as last year, and keeping non-performing loans to below 2 percent.

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  • Dollar eases as focus shifts to Fed meeting

    Dollar eases as focus shifts to Fed meeting

    The dollar eased versus most of its peers on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, with traders wagering policymakers will signal a pause in their tightening cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee meets between Jan 29-30, and Chairman Jerome Powell is widely expected to acknowledge growing risks to the US economy as global momentum weakens.

    The dollar fell 0.2% versus the offshore yuan to 6.7406. The rally in the yuan also fuelled a bounce in the Australian dollar, which gained 0.18% versus the dollar to $0.7195. Kiwi dollar strengthened by 0.3% to $0.6859.

    “The general direction for the dollar is still down and markets will be taking cues from the FOMC this week,” said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

    “The Fed will most likely keep rates steady this year given the state of economic growth outside the US”

    The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers was marginally lower at 95.74, after falling 0.8% on Friday.

    A deal to reopen the US government for now after a prolonged shutdown also reduced investor demand for the safety of the greenback.

    ‘The re-opening of Federal government after one-month shutdown fuelled ‘risk on’ rally in the US equities and slashed demand for safe-haven currency like USD, leading to sharp decline of the dollar index last Friday,” said Margaret Yang, markets analyst at CMC Markets.

    Over the past two months or so, Powell and several other Fed policymakers have taken a more cautious approach on further monetary tightening, leaving the dollar underpowered after it enjoyed a boost from the Fed’s four rate increases last year.

    Traders are bearish on the dollar for 2019.

    Amid a weakening global economy and US-Sino trade tensions, the US central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady this year to avoid hurting growth at home. Interest rate futures markets are pricing in no rate hikes for 2019.

    Investors are also anxiously waiting news from high-level US-China trade talks on Tuesday and Wednesday to see if the world’s largest economies can reach a compromise that will end their trade war. President Donald Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Chinese goods if there is no significant progress in the negotiations.

    The yen added 0.2% in early Asian trade at 109.34.

    The dollar has gained around 1.2% on the yen over the last two weeks. Not helping the yen was the Bank of Japan’s downgrade of its inflation forecasts last week when it also maintained its accommodative monetary policy, as widely expected.

    Moreover, Japanese investors have been net buyers of foreign bonds over the last few weeks, stoking demand for dollars. This likely explains why the safe-haven yen has not appreciated during this period even though risks of a global economic slowdown have rattled investor sentiment.

    The euro was marginally higher at $1.1411.

    The single currency managed to cling on to a 0.4 percent gain made last week despite the European Central Bank downgrading its growth forecasts for the near term.

    Growth data out of Europe’s economic powerhouses such as Germany and France has been weaker-than-expected and analysts expect the ECB to remain dovish for an extended period.

    Traders believe Europe’s slowdown and a dovish ECB are priced into the euro, which has traded in a $1.12-$1.16 range over the last three months.

    Sterling was marginally lower, fetching $1.3193.

    Cable gained 2.5% last week after a report in the Sun newspaper that Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party had privately decided to offer conditional backing for British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal this week.

    However, Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney said on Sunday the backstop was already a compromise drawn up to meet May’s negotiating red lines, and the EU and Ireland were united in the view it “was not going to change”.

    Analyst expect sterling to remain volatile. Britain is set to leave the European Union on March 29, but the country’s members of parliament remain far from agreeing a divorce deal.

  • OCBC: Malaysia could restore fiscal health in 3 years

    OCBC: Malaysia could restore fiscal health in 3 years

    Malaysia has a reasonable chance of restoring its fiscal health within three years if the economic growth remains stable with new revenue streams and stable expenditure, according to OCBC Bank chief economist Selena Ling. “But if you have a case where the global environment is very serious and dire and there is no deal between US and China… then it becomes a very hostile environment for any developing country to operate in,” she said last Friday.

    She noted that if the global economy remains at a status quo for the rest of the year and crude oil prices stabilise, Malaysia may miss the fiscal deficit target by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.

    Having said that, the potential slippage is not expected to be “very severe” that will derail Malaysia off its targets.

    “Rating agencies also want to see a multi-year plan. If it’s just a slippage of one year that you can attribute to a lot of external factors, probably the rating agencies will give you a pass. It’s really not a one year story they’re looking for,” she explained.

    The government has projected fiscal deficit to ease to 3.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 3.7% in 2018. It looks to further narrow the fiscal deficit to 3% and 2.8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

    Ling projects Malaysia to record a full-year GDP growth of 4.4% for 2019 amid slowing global growth and the ongoing external headwinds.

    Malaysia’s ringgit, on the other hand, could appreciate to RM4 against the greenback in the event of a weak dollar.

    She said the strengthening of the ringgit will have less to do with domestic factors as the slowdown in economic growth is seen as benign, coupled with an unlikely change in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR).

    Another reason that could be supportive of strong ringgit is the risk of the US economy falling into a recession next year.

    Meanwhile, Ling expects oil prices to be subdued and could result in a shortfall in government coffers if they remain at the current level of around US$50 per barrel until year-end.

    Although Budget 2019 is based on the oil price assumption of US$70 per barrel, she does not see a need to recalibrate the budget at this juncture, but it will exert pressure on seeking new revenue sources.

    “As far as the budget revision is concerned, I suspect (it will) not be so soon because the US$70 is a medium-term price target and oil prices have been volatile in the last six months.

    “But if you look at the average price, it is relatively stable and maybe for the next budget in October 2019, they (the government) may revise the oil price assumption,” she added.

  • Asean’s Power Landscape Expected to Transform in 2019

    Asean’s Power Landscape Expected to Transform in 2019

    Member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are on a path to transform their power landscapes as energy demand continues to rise to match the region’s economic growth potential, a power management company said this week. “In the pursuit of a robust digital economy, Asean is heralding in an era of unprecedented innovation … 2019 will see power play an indispensable role in shaping the evolution of the region’s economy,” Ireland-based power management company Eaton said in a statement.

    In Southeast Asia, technology will have to meet increasing demand for clean, renewable energy and remote power management, support the arrival of 5G connectivity, and provide resilience against growing cyberthreats.

    Asean’s evolving energy demand, which according to the International Energy Agency will grow by almost two-thirds by 2040, will go together with the projected boom in the region as part of the fourth industrial revolution.

    Development of the region’s smart cities network has already made way for some significant changes in regional power management, Eaton said.

    “We are seeing a seismic shift in the region’s power management outlook as cities gear up on technology as the foundation of smart and sustainable urban development,” the company said.

    Eaton said batteries would continue to develop in this part of the world beyond their traditional use as a backup energy source.

    “At present, heavy investments in Asean are being made in preparation for such technologies in the years to come,” the company said.

    Singapore, for example, has embarked on a public-private partnership through its Energy Market Authority to speed up the deployment of energy storage systems.

    Though new technology seems to demand new assets, Eaton also highlighted the importance of making the most of existing assets.

    “Only by devising new and innovative solutions can the industry progress amid drastic changes in power demand and supply,” the company said in the statement.

  • Imported vehicle sales in Korea up nearly 10% in 2018

    Imported vehicle sales in Korea up nearly 10% in 2018

    The value of imported vehicles sold in Korea last year jumped 9.9 percent to 17.47 trillion won ($15.49 billion) from a year earlier on demand for German models, industry data showed Thursday. In 2018, imported carmakers sold a combined 260,705 vehicles in Asia’s fourth-biggest economy, up 12 percent from the previous year, the latest findings showed.

    According to the Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association (Kaida), strong demand for vehicles made by Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volkswagen pushed up sales numbers.

    Imported auto brands accounted for a record 16.7 percent of all vehicles sold and registered in the domestic passenger car market for 2018, up from 15.23 percent in the previous year, Kaida said.

  • CIMB get permission for banking venture with Philippines

    CIMB get permission for banking venture with Philippines

    CIMB Group Holdings Bhd has obtained the green light to establish its investment banking business in the Philippines. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, the group said its wholly owned subsidiary CIMB Group Sdn Bhd had on Jan 23 received the relevant approvals from the Securities and Exchange Commission of the Philippines, including the Certificate of Incorporation and Certificate of Registration for an investment house licence.

    The investment banking business in the Philippines will be operated via a 60% shareholding in CIMB Bancom Capital Corporation with the remaining 40% stake to be held by local partners Bancom II Consultants, Inc and PLP Group Holdings, Inc.

    The three parties have entered into a joint venture agreement following the receipt of the approvals.

    CIMB shares went down 1 sen or 0.2% to close at RM5.65 today on 13.4 million shares done.

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  • Naver says it’s not interested in opening an internet bank

    Naver says it’s not interested in opening an internet bank

    Naver said Monday that it has no plans to launch an internet-only bank, shutting down rumors that the IT giant might open the country’s third such bank after K bank and Kakao Bank. “Although we have reviewed [joining] the internet-only bank business, we decided against it and will not attend the information session regarding internet-only bank licenses on Wednesday,” said a Naver spokesperson.

    “This is the decision we made after giving a lot of thought into whether Naver can be competitive when the domestic internet-banking environment is already so well established and existing internet-only banks K Bank and Kakao Bank are doing well.”

    The announcement comes as a surprise to the industry as Naver has been hailed as one of the likeliest candidates to qualify for a banking permit. Last month, financial authorities announced that they would grant internet-only bank licenses to up to two companies this May in an effort to boost competition in the banking industry. The information session, organized by the Financial Supervisory Service and Financial Services Commission, comes as part of the government’s effort to facilitate the application process.

    Despite government initiatives, however, no major company has yet to directly express an intention to apply for a bank license.

    Game developer NHN Entertainment and booking and shopping platform Interpark – which led a failed effort to apply for a permit in 2015 – have also said they don’t plan on pursuing internet-only banks.

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  • Oil prices fall on worries fuel demand to stall amid slowing global growth

    Oil prices fall on worries fuel demand to stall amid slowing global growth

    Oil prices declined on Thursday amid lingering concerns over slowing global economic growth that may limit fuel demand and after a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories. International Brent crude oil futures were at $60.89 a barrel at 0352 GMT, down 25 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement, having closed down 0.6 percent in the previous session.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.40 per barrel, 22 cents lower from their last settlement.

    “Crude oil came under further pressure as concerns of faltering global growth remained at the forefront in investor’s minds,” ANZ Bank said.

    The prospects of future oil demand are getting clouded by the global growth worries, analysts said.

    “With the IMF downgrading 2019/20 and the continued rhetoric from Davos reiterating that they expect global growth to slow down over the next two years, is providing selling pressure in oil,” said Hue Frame, portfolio manager at Frame Funds in Sydney.

    Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets.

    Meanwhile, world leaders and top executives are meeting in Davos, Switzerland, this week to discuss how to steer policy amid worries of slowing economic growth, damaging trade wars and Brexit.

    Oil market sentiment was also weakened by an increase in U.S. crude inventories after refineries cut output, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Wednesday.

    Crude inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 18 to 443.6 million, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 42,000 barrels, the API said. Refinery runs fell by 152,000 barrels per day.

    “Sharp production cuts by OPEC+ have kept crude oil futures supported however as market reports indicate for a marked output reduction in Dec 2018,” said Benjamin Lu, analyst at Phillip Futures.

    “Though oil prices have demonstrated for higher upside potential in the first quarter of 2019, mounting economic challenges will continue to impede exponential gains in the longer term,” Lu added.

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  • Natural food startup Jus’ Amazin launched in India

    Natural food startup Jus’ Amazin launched in India

    Eyeing the burgeoning US$ 100 billion global natural foods and drinks industry, Jitin Munjal, former Global Director for Sales and Marketing at DuPont has announced his natural nutrition food and beverage venture, Jus’ Amazin Foods and Beverages Pvt. Ltd. Co-founded with his wife, Shilpa Mogilishetty, Jus’ Amazin started in the kitchen, as the couple were developing nutritiously rich natural food products that are delicious, for their son, who is allergic to dairy and soy products. After a lot of R&D, the kitchen experiment has now grown (over the last few months), to be present in 75 retail stores, and 20 e-commerce sites, pan-India.

    Speaking on the venture, Jitin Munjal, Co-founder and CEO of Jus’ Amazin said, “Most packaged food is highly processed, packed with chemicals and low in nutrition, and as consumer awareness about the ill-effects of chemicals in food is growing, they are demanding foods that are natural, nutritious and delicious. While trying to find dairy and soy free foods for our son, we realized how underserved the natural and nutritious food market is in India. Jus Amazin caters to the health and nutrition conscious consumer with natural wholesome foods, which are both delicious and nutritious.”

    Jitin Munjal is a seasoned professional and entrepreneur with more than 20 years of rich experience in Business Management, Marketing, Sales & Distribution, Product Development and in leading global and regional teams. Jitin has received his education from premier institutes such as Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, London School of Economics and Political Science, and has worked with blue chip companies such as P&G, Tata Group (as part of the prestigious TAS), Castrol & DuPont. In his last corporate role, Jitin was heading global marketing and sales excellence at DuPont, a leading multinational corporation with interested in varied industries. Shilpa Mogilishetty holds a Masters in Anthropology from the University of Sussex and has worked across the corporate and social sectors, in the areas of Market Research, Media Planning and Change Management.

    Jus’ Amazin’s current product range includes 100 percent natural, gluten free, soy free, dairy free and plant based foods such as nut and seed butters/ spreads (almond butter, organic peanut butter, seed butter and cashew butter). The products are currently available both online at leading e-commerce websites and also in retail stores in Bangalore, Delhi NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Goa. Leading brands such as Foodhall, Spar, BigBasket, Namdhari’s, Modern Bazaar, Loyal World, Amazon, HealthifyMe, FirstCry, HealthKart, Qtrove, The Gourmet Box, among others have partnered with the company.

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  • Gold rises as growth concerns, US govt shutdown weigh on dollar

    Gold rises as growth concerns, US govt shutdown weigh on dollar

    Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar declined due to concerns the prolonged U.S. government shutdown will limit economic growth at the same global growth is slowing as well. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,283.31 per ounce, as of 0326 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,282.60 per ounce. “We are seeing a weaker U.S. dollar for the moment, which is in general supportive for gold,” Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets said.

    However, McCarthy cautioned that bullion price gains are limited by slowing investor buying as indicated by price charts used by technical traders.

    “The issue for gold is there is a very heavy resistance seen around $1,290 and $1,310. A further weakening of the U.S. dollar could be supportive. But, we need something to really push gold through the resistance level,” he said.

    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell for third day, dropping 0.3 percent during that period. However, Asian shares rose on Thursday after Wall Street managed to end higher.

    On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States was doing well in trade talks with China, saying at a White House event that China “very much wants to make a deal.”

    However, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown reminded investors of risks to growth to the economy.

    White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in a CNN interview the U.S. economy could see zero growth in the first three months if the partial government shutdown lasts for the whole quarter.

    Meanwhile, investor focus turned to the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2019 that ends later on Thursday.

    Market watchers also expect ECB to acknowledge growing threats to the euro zone economy.

    “The ongoing trade war, Brexit and slow global growth narrative are supportive for gold at present levels, as is Chinese seasonal demand,” MKS PAMP Group said in a research note.

    “That being said, Comex non-commercial and exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings remain extended, so we expect a bit of tug of war in the short-term between $1,270-$1,300.”

    Holdings of SPDR Gold, the largest gold-based ETF, was at its highest since June 2018.

    Among other metals, palladium, which hit a record high of $1,434.50 an ounce last week on low inventories and rising demand, rose 0.1 percent to $1,348.50 an ounce.

    Silver was down 0.1 percent $15.35 an ounce, while platinum was steady at $795.

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  • RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Malaysia lowers inflation forecast for 2019 to 2%

    RAM Ratings, which expects inflation to inch up to 0.3% in December 2018 from 0.2% in the previous month, has revised its full-year headline inflation forecast for 2019 to 2.0% from 2.7%. The rating agency said in a statement that inflation in December 2018 is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in the preceding month due to dissipation of deflationary pressures from the transport fuel component.

    The price of RON95 petrol fell 3.3% year on year in December, after a 4.5% drop in November.

    On that note, overall inflation is envisaged to come in at 1.0% in 2018.

    As for 2019, RAM Ratings has revised its headline inflation projection downwards to 2.0%, mainly due to changing expectations on global oil prices, which are increasingly pointing to a lower average range of US$60-US$65 (RM248-RM269) per barrel for 2019.

    RAM head of research Kristina Fong said the rating firm’s sensitivity analysis indicates that for every US$5/barrel move in the price of Brent crude, headline inflation potentially changes 0.3 percentage point.

    “The move back to the weekly Automated Pricing Mechanism for pump prices – effective January 2019 – is not expected to exert any significant downward pressure on inflation given the short period it will be in place ahead of the anticipated targeted fuel subsidy mechanism to be implemented in second quarter 2019.

    “Moreover, global oil prices are expected to trend a little higher compared to the start of the year, An escalation in oil (petrol) prices beyond RM2.20/litre will trigger the use of subsidies to maintain this ceiling. This will also contain inflationary pressure,” she added.

    The Department of Statistics released the December inflation data yesterday.

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  • Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    The slowdown in China may impact Malaysia more given the strong trade linkage with China, according to PublicInvest Research. “China is not only our biggest trade partner in 2018 (YTD 2018: 16.7%) but also our largest export market (YTD 2018: 13.9%) and our second biggest import source after Singapore (YTD 2018:19.8%). This could bring negative ramifications not only to Malaysia but also to other peers like Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines and hence, the growth prospects of Asean-5,“ the research house said in a report.

    In fact, it said, the simmering trade stress has caused noticeable dent to export momentum in November with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia suffering a contraction in exports. This could be repeated in December.

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable outcomes to the trade negotiation may see longer times taken for growth to normalise due to demand deficiencies which are always more damaging than supply shocks.

    “Other than this, the pullback in global financial and commodity markets arising from pockets of stress mentioned above can hurt Malaysia as well due to contagion effects. This can bring down the ringgit in addition to putting a cap in the prices of our key commodity exports like crude oil, crude palm oil and rubber,“ it explained.

    The slowdown in China is particularly alarming and shows signs of worsening following the release of its 2018 growth of 6.6% (2017: 6.8%), the slowest since 1990.

    “We don’t see negative surprises in this as it is within the People’s Bank of China’s estimates,“ it said, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s slowdown to continue, forecast to ease to 6.2% in 2019 amid firmed commitment to reforms and rebalancing on the back of the trade collision with the US.

    PublicInvest Research said the slew of IMF downgrades could result in negative ramifications not only to global financial markets but also commodities. Risk aversion could heighten, pushing investors to take less risks which may be precursor to elevating demand for safe haven assets particularly bonds.

    “Among all the growth risks mentioned by IMF, we are particularly concerned over China given its extensive trade network and huge economy.”

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable trade negotiations could be harmful not only to China’s outlook but also emerging economies, particularly Asean, given their strong interdependence on trade. This could lead to inexorable downturns to Asean economies, particularly those that depend on China’s exports (intermediate goods).

    “Over and above all, we think that China still has sufficient tools to support growth should trade negotiations turn unfavourable although the impact could still be there.”