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Tag: Economy

  • Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to return to the 4.6-5% trend range in 2020 as economic drag diminishes, said UBS Investment Bank economist Edward Teather. He said the impact of the trade war and the government’s institutional reforms should go from drags on growth to net positive contributions to the country’s economy this year.

    “Pakatan Harapan’s institutional reforms and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) membership would improve prospects in 2020.

    “Malaysia is also a key potential beneficiary of the CPTPP trade deal,” he said during a conference call on global and Asian 2019 outlook.

    However, he said, Malaysia might lose some potential gains if it decided to pull out of the trade deal and this would impact GDP growth next year.

    “Without CPTPP, there will be less potential to be tapped; but it’s possible without the deal, the government would consider liberalisation, introducing more transparency and level playing field between private companies,” he said.

    Teather said trade war, slower China growth and institutional reform and fiscal consolidation policy initiatives would continue to drive the weakness in growth in the near term.

    Hence, he said, UBS expected Malaysia’s growth to be at 4% this year from the estimated 4.7% in 2018.

    “2019 will likely be a case of pain before gain. First, we expect Malaysia to be impacted by trade war-related disruption, but also to be well placed to subsequently take market share from China in the United States,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Teather expects the ringgit to fall to the RM4.40 level to the US dollar this year before improving in 2020. Malaysia being an open economy, the ringgit was pressured by the lower trade growth, he said.

    “Exports, in dollar terms, rose 10% in 2018 and would only grow 1% in 2019. So it’s quite a strong slowdown and that is partly because of lower oil prices and less demand for products and components,” he added.

    On the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), he said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) may leave interest rates on hold throughout 2019.

    “Soft growth should allow BNM to look at acceleration in inflation driven by the change from the goods and services tax to the sales and service tax in 2018 and fuel subsidy reforms.

    “In early 2020, better growth momentum, confidence in CPTPP and trade war-linked supply-chain adjustments in Malaysia’s favour could lead to a 25-basis point rate hike by BNM,” he said.

    He forecast the US Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark interest rate once this year, in September, and that the Brent crude to hover at US$65 per barrel this year and US$73 per barrel in 2020.

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  • CIMB divests insurance broking business for RM59.6m

    CIMB divests insurance broking business for RM59.6m

    CIMB Group Holdings Bhd’s wholly-owned indirect subsidiary CIG Bhd yesterday entered into a share purchase agreement with HBG Asia Holdings Ltd and HBG Malaysia Sdn Bhd (Howden) to divest its remaining 51% stake in CIMB Howden Insurance Brokers Sdn Bhd (CHIB) to Howden for RM59.6 million.

    The group said approval from Bank Negara Malaysia in relation to the proposed divestment was received by Howden on Nov 27, 2018.

    “CHIB currently operates an insurance broking business and the proposed divestment is in line with CIMB’s aspirations to further streamline and focus on its core banking businesses. As part of the proposed divestment, CHIB will cease to be an associate of CIG,“ CIMB said.

  • The Lipstick Effect drives South Korea cosmetics sales

    The Lipstick Effect drives South Korea cosmetics sales

    The Lipstick Effect has seen a rise in cosmetics sales despite South Korea’s economic downturn of 2018. The term The Lipstick Effect describes the phenomenon whereby colour cosmetics sales surge during a recession as consumers turn to small-ticket luxuries to lighten their mood.

    Major South Korean health and beauty retailer Olive Young saw a 35 per cent jump in colour cosmetics sales last year – the first time this product range has topped its best-selling category list – as the country struggled with sluggish job markets, conservative corporate investment and overall low consumer spending. Health functional food and hair products grew 32 per cent and 22 per cent respectively over the period.

    The outlook for cosmetics sales looks similarly bright this year as the rest of the South Korean economy is expected to wallow at 2018 levels.

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  • ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    With a 2019 GDP growth of 6.9 percent, Vietnam will remain one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. “We remain positive on Vietnam’s medium-term growth on strong manufacturing activity as FDI inflows to electronics manufacturing remain strong,” says economist Chidu Narayanan of Standard Chartered Bank. According to a report recently issued by the bank, the country is likely to reach GDP growth of 6.9 percent this year.

    The manufacturing sector has expanded by double digits for most of the past four years and this pace is likely to continue in 2019, says the report.

    The bank expects manufacturing growth to remain strong this year, though mildly lower than in 2018. Strong FDI inflows to manufacturing will likely support robust manufacturing output, it says.

    Standard Chartered economists also forecast FDI disbursement to stay at $15 billion this year and FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics manufacturing, to remain high in the medium term.

    FDI disbursement in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent,  according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    “Most macro-economic indicators improved in 2018, interest and foreign exchange rates were kept stable despite the Fed’s hike in interest rates and U.S.-China tension, and non-performing loans were well-managed below three percent,” says Nirukt Sapru, CEO Vietnam and ASEAN and South Asia Cluster Markets.

    “We believe that the Vietnamese economy will remain one of the fastest growing in Asia and likely the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in 2019.”

    The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s GDP is likely to drop to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the country’s GDP for 2019 at 6.8 percent.

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent in 2018 was the highest in a decade, according to the General Statistics Office.

  • Vietnam trade deficit could balloon to $3 billion

    Vietnam trade deficit could balloon to $3 billion

    Vietnam could face a trade deficit of $3 billion this year, after achieving the highest trade surplus in a decade in 2018. Export turnover in 2019 is expected to reach about $265 billion, down 17.4 percent from 2018. However, imports are expected to rise by 13.2 percent, reaching $268 billion, meaning a trade deficit of $3 billion, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has predicted.

    The volatility of trade policies of major economies like the U.S. and EU could hurt Vietnam’s exports this year, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong said at a recent review conference.

    Geopolitical tensions and monetary policies which were tightened earlier than expected in many economies are other challenges for Vietnam’s export sector this year, he added.

    Global agricultural supply this year is expected to rise as countries hike up production of own agriculture sectors to avoid reliance on imports, and competition for agricultural and seafood products is set to intensify.

    Meanwhile, imports are forecast to continue to grow in manufacturing sectors that rely on imported materials or machinery.

    “Trade protection looks to be on the rise, especially after the U.S. has raised tariffs on imports from other countries. The US-China trade war is also not showing signs of cooling down,” Vuong said.

    Nguyen Xuan Cuong, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, said at the conference that 2019 was going to be a more difficult year after 2018’s windfall.

    “We’ve hit very high targets last year, so going even higher is extremely difficult. In addition, world trade is unstable, U.S.-China trade relations have not returned to normal, and Brexit remains unfinished. These are difficult challenges for our industrial and agricultural sectors this year,” said Cuong.

    He suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Trade supports growth in the agricultural sector, using its influence on supply chain areas like marketing and distribution.

    Vietnam had an export surplus of $7.2 billion in 2018, three times higher than that of 2017 and the highest in the past decade.

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  • Coffee exports jump for Korean firm

    Coffee exports jump for Korean firm

    Namyang Dairy Products said Friday its coffee exports jumped more than 20 percent in 2018 on market diversification and the rising popularity of Korean pop culture abroad. Overseas shipments of its freeze-dried coffee and instant coffee products totaled 36 billion won ($32 million) last year, compared with 28 billion won a year earlier.

    Exports of freeze-dried coffee totaled 2,000 tons last year, compared with 1,500 tons a year earlier. The value rose to 30 billion won from 23 billion won. The company also exported 50 million instant coffee mixes, up from 40 million the previous year.

    A company official attributed the export jump to its development of premium products as well as the overseas popularity of Korean pop culture.

    Namyang Dairy Products said it will ramp up efforts to diversify its export markets to Europe. Last year, Korea’s overall exports of coffee products came to 75,100 tons, up slightly from 75,000 tons a year earlier.

    Meanwhile, Korea’s exports of milk powder surged to 32.5 billion won last year from 26 billion won a year earlier.

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  • Indian rice prices slip as demand lags; Vietnam awaits major harvest

    Indian rice prices slip as demand lags; Vietnam awaits major harvest

    Rice export prices slipped in India as the rupee weakened and demand waned, prompting buyers to turn to other markets such as Vietnam. India’s 5 percent broken parboiled variety eased to $379-$384 per tonne this week from the $382-$387 range last week. “Demand is still weak due to higher prices,” said an exporter based in Kakinada in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, adding that despite the fall, prevailing high rates were prompting buyers to look at other markets, such as Vietnam.

    The Indian rupee hit a month low on Thursday, increasing exporters’ margins from overseas sales and thereby prompting a reduction in prices.

    Export prices in India had shot up after the central state of Chhattisgarh, a leading rice producer, raised minimum paddy buying prices to 2,500 rupees per 100 kg from 1,750 rupees.

    In neighboring Bangladesh, an increase in domestic rates for rice could prompt the government to cut the import duty on the staple grain, traders said.

    The south Asian country, which emerged as a major importer of the grain in 2017 after floods destroyed crops, imposed a 28 percent duty in June last year to support its farmers after local production revived.

    In Vietnam, rates for 5 percent broken rice fell to $355-$360 a tonne from $370-$375 last week ahead of the country’s largest harvest, expected to begin in two weeks.

    “Indonesia’s state food procurement agency’s recent announcement that it may not import rice this year has also weighed on prices,” a Ho Chi Minh City-based source said.

    “We are negotiating a deal for around 10,000 tonnes to be delivered late February, and we are stuck at pricing. We’re asking for $360 and they are offering $345,” the trader said, adding that the shipment would be bound for Africa.”

    Another trader said China’s move to limit rice shipments from Vietnam may not be as bad as some traders initially feared.

    “It’s only the beginning of the year now and importing countries can change their import plans, especially when hit by natural disasters,” the trader said.

    In second biggest exporter Thailand, prices of the benchmark 5 percent broken variety widened to $385-$400, free on board Bangkok, from $390-$400 the previous week, mostly due to fluctuations in the value of the domestic currency.

    “Demand remains flat, but some exporters are starting to talk about possible orders from the Philippines,” a Bangkok-based trader said.

    The Thai market is likely to see additional supplies flowing in toward the end of this month, from the seasonal harvest, and this could in turn move prices, another trader in Bangkok said.

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  • Imports of commercial vehicles fell last month in Korea

    Imports of commercial vehicles fell last month in Korea

    Sales of imported commercial vehicles plunged 38 percent last month from a year earlier amid slower economic growth, a local automobile association said Tuesday. The number of newly-registered imported commercial vehicles fell to 283 units in December from 390 a year ago, the Korea Automobile Importers and Distributors Association (KAIDA) said in a statement.

    “The construction industry faces a slowdown as the government pushes for regeneration projects in residential areas instead of building new apartments or homes. This is driving down demand for commercial vehicles,” a spokeswoman for Volvo Trucks Korea said.

    Imported commercial vehicles are widely viewed as being more upmarket than domestically produced rivals and offer more choices for users.

    For the whole of 2018, the number of imported commercial vehicles sold in Korea declined 1.6 percent to 4,394 units from 4,464 a year earlier, the statement said.

    Major imported commercial vehicle brands are MAN, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Trucks, Scania and Iveco.

    There are three kinds of trucks. Two of them are regarded as commercial vehicles, but the third, referred to as a dump truck, is classified as construction equipment.

    KAIDA began to compile sales data for imported commercial vehicles in January 2017.

  • Vietnam seafood export remains red

    Vietnam seafood export remains red

    Agifish, a major seafood company, reported a second straight year of losses in 2018 as both exports and domestic sales fell. The recently released 2018 audited financial report of one of Vietnam’s 10 largest seafood export companies puts its loss at VND178 billion ($7.66 million). The An Giang Fisheries Import Export Joint Stock Company, to give its formal name, had lost VND190 billion ($8.2 million) a year earlier.

    The company said the loss came as sales downed 43 percent to VND1.29 trillion ($55.27 million) in 2018, due to lower fish exports and domestic sales as well as lower revenues from by-products.

    The poor performance last year caused auditors to raise doubts about the company’s ability to remain a going concern, but the management rejected this, saying it would increase domestic and export sales, adjust prices and reduce costs to return to the black in 2019.

    Agifish has total assets of VND1.23 trillion ($52.92 million) and debts of VND800 billion ($34.42 million).

    The Vietnamese seafood industry faced some challenges last year such as being subject to a “yellow card” warning by the European Commission for failing to demonstrate sufficient progress in the fight against illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. There were also technical barriers and anti-dumping duties in several markets.

    Seafood export value rose 5.8 percent year-on-year in 2018 to reach $8.8 billion, according to the Vietnam Customs.

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  • Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia Posts Biggest Trade Gap in 2018

    Indonesia posted a wider than expected trade deficit in December, bringing the gap for 2018 to the largest ever, the Central Statistics Agency, or BPS, said on Tuesday. December’s trade deficit was $1.10 billion, in a third consecutive month where the gap was wider than market expectations. A Reuters poll had expected a deficit of $930 million. Southeast Asia’s largest economy had a deficit of $8.57 billion in 2018, the widest ever, a stark contrast to its $11.84 billion surplus in 2017, BPS chief Suhariyanto said.

    Last year was challenging because exports had slowed at a time when imports surged due to a recovering domestic economy, said Josua Pardede, an economist at Bank Permata in Jakarta. This year would probably be equally challenging, he said.

    “Global economic growth is stagnating. Growth in our major trading partners such as China, the United States, Japan and Europe is slowing. If we can’t find new destinations for our products, export growth could slow further,” Josua said, noting that falling oil prices could cool down imports.

    Economists also warned that the trade data could mean Indonesia’s current-account deficit in the final quarter of 2018 was also wider than expected.

    Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo previously said the current-account gap in the fourth quarter was expected at more than 3 percent of gross domestic product, though the full-year gap was seen at about 3 percent.

    The authorities issued a slew of measures to control imports last year, including mandating wider use of biodiesel, raising import tax and delaying big, import-heavy infrastructure projects.

    The central bank also raised interest rates six times by a total of 175 basis points last year to try to bring the current-account gap down, and Perry said the deficit in 2019 was expected at 2.5 percent.

    Fakhrul Fulvian, Trimegah Sekuritas economist, said December trade data proved that Indonesia may need to slow its GDP expansion further to “bring back the balance” and improve the current-account deficit.

    In December, exports dropped 4.62 percent to $14.18 billion on a yearly basis, a second month of contraction, compared with the poll estimate of 1.81 percent increase, largely because of a slump in shipments of mining products.

    Exports to China, Indonesia’s largest trading partner, also fell in December mostly because of a decline in coal and steel sales.

    Meanwhile, December imports were worth $15.28 billion, 1.16 percent up from a year ago, but slower than the forecast of 6.6 percent.

  • Vietnam scraps plan to merge stock exchanges

    Vietnam scraps plan to merge stock exchanges

    The nation’s two bourses in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi will continue to operate independently under a new state-owned company. Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) will operate independently under the Vietnam Stock Exchange, which will be set up by the Ministry of Finance by 2020. The new company, to be headquartered in Hanoi, will have a charter capital VND3 trillion ($129 million), on the basis of combining the charter capital of both exchanges.

    The Vietnam Stock Exchange will issue regulations on stock listings and trading, monitor the stock market and supervise the two bourses. This new plan indicates that Vietnam has given up on an earlier plan to merge the two exchanges, owing to disagreement over where the combined one would be located.

    HoSE accounts for 93 percent of the two main exchanges’ total market capitalization of about $131 billion as of December. It is the main market, where blue chips such as Vietnam’s biggest private conglomerate Vingroup, dairy company Vinamilk and budget carrier Vietjet Air are listed.

    HNX, on the other hand, is home to smaller and mid-sized enterprises, bonds and derivatives.

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  • Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    A full-blown trade war could drag Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2% this year, from an earlier projection of 4.7%, according to Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd head of research and chief economist Alan Tan. Tan said if the trade spat between the US and China were to escalate to a situation where tariffs are fully implemented on all Chinese goods, Malaysia’s GDP growth could be hit closer to 1.5 percentage point.

    “If Malaysia’s GDP is at 5%, the 1.5% will push the GDP growth down to 3.5%,” he told reporters at the press conference in conjunction with the bank’s launch ceremony of its Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) facility for retail investors yesterday.

    “Malaysia is an open economy and is still relying on trade. As we know, China today is the major market for Malaysia and if the global trade war were to escalate, we think that the Chinese economy, which has already shown signs of slowing down, may slow even further.

    “Therefore, we are of the view that Malaysia’s exports to China will be slowing down towards the second half of 2019 assuming if the trade war continues to drag on,” he added.

    However, Tan said domestic demand will continue to support the economic growth this year driven by several measures introduced by the government in Budget 2019, supporting the bank’s forecast on the GDP growth at the region of 4.7% this year.

    Additionally, he said that the bank opined that this time around, both US and China will be more willing to negotiate and possibly come out with a trade compromise by end of the first quarter this year, in view of the external uncertainties and weaker business sentiment.

    “Going into 2019, we already seeing signs of slowing down in the US and China. Unlike six months ago, where both economies continue to do relatively well,” he noted.

    Therefore, he said the bank believes that in the second half of 2019, following the resolutions of the global trade war, coupled with the weakening US dollar, interest will come back to the emerging market, including Malaysia.

    However, Tan said the bank expects that the market will remain flat in the first half of 2019 and looking at end-2019 target for the FBM KLCI at 1,810 points.

    On ringgit, he said the local currency is expected to appreciate to RM3.90-RM4.00 level in the second half of 2019, and possibly ending the year at RM3.90 against the US dollar, as the greenback is likely to soften towards the second half of the year.

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  • Amazon offers Vietnamese products route to global market

    Amazon offers Vietnamese products route to global market

    Amazon is collaborating with Vietnam’s trade ministry to sell the country’s products on its system globally. Vu Ba Phu, director of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Trade Promotion Agency, said while announcing news of the collaboration that the U.S. e-commerce company would help especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) develop their brands on its website.

    It would also train Vietnamese firms in e-commerce and selling on its system, he said. Vietnamese businesses would be able to reach over 300 million users of the world’s largest online retailer by participating in Amazon Global Selling, he added.

    Bernard Tay, Amazon’s regional director for Southeast Asia, said Vietnam is among the top countries in the region in terms of capability to export via Amazon.

    It has strengths in household products, textile, footwear, and handicrafts, items that sell well on Amazon, he said.

    Vietnamese firms need to make products adopted to global trends and improve their English and branding skills, Tay added.

    Phu said Vietnamese SMEs would have to meet the high standards in many markets.

    “Big markets like the E.U., U.S. and Japan all have strict regulations on product quality and origin, and Vietnamese exports will have to comply with them.”

    Last year Amazon had organized a number of training programs for Vietnamese SMEs on how to sell on its system.

    Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba is also interested in Vietnamese sellers. It started looking for sellers on its AliExpress website last July, saying it wanted to enable them to reach over 200 markets around the world.

    Vietnam’s e-commerce market grew by 25 percent in 2017, according to the Vietnam E-commerce Association (VECOM), which expects this rate to continue until 2020.

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  • Proton aims to double exports in 2019

    Proton aims to double exports in 2019

    Proton Holdings Bhd aims to double the export of its cars to at least 3,000 units this year from 1,388 units in 2018. “In 2017, we exported 248 units. This year we want to export more,” its CEO Li Chunrong said. With the support from the Malaysian government, he said, the group could export up to 4,000 to 5,000 units this year. Asked on the group’s plans to enter the Pakistani and the Middle Eastern markets, Li responded by saying that Asean will remain as the group’s focus for its export business, but it does not intend to abandon other markets.

    “We don’t want to forget the other markets (as well). We are trying our best to enter other markets,” he added.

    On response to the Proton X70 that was officially launched on Dec 12, 2018, the group said bookings for the sports utility vehicle have exceeded 15,000 units, with over 2,000 units delivered so far.

    Earlier, Proton deputy CEO Datuk Radzaif Mohamed said the group expects to bring an initial investment of RM47 million into the country through the second set of collaboration agreements between its vendors and their overseas counterparts.

    On Oct 10, 2018, Proton hosted its first signing ceremony where eight colla-boration agreements were signed and they are expected to help bring in an initial investment of RM170 million into the country.

    Radzaif said the collaborative agreements will range from technical tie-ups and joint ventures to 100% foreign direct investments with foreign vendors investing into the Malaysian economy.

    Aside from the investments in facilities and technology, he said, the collaborations are also expected to create about 450 new jobs in the automotive industry that range from assembly to design engineering.

    Additionally, these vendors will supply parts to Proton’s manufacturing facility in Tanjung Malim, which is undergoing expansion at a cost of RM1.2 billion.

    Meanwhile, Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Ong Kian Ming, who witnessed the signing ceremony, said the government is targeting RM15 billion from exports of local automotive components and spare parts by 2020.

    Malaysian Automotive, Robotics and IoT Malaysia (MARii) CEO Datuk Madani Sahari shared that the value of exports for automotive components and parts could have easily touched the RM12 billion mark by end of December 2018.

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  • Beijing approves blueprint for ‘Greater Bay Area’

    Beijing approves blueprint for ‘Greater Bay Area’

    Chinese Vice-Premier Han Zheng, the point man on Hong Kong and Macau affairs, recently gave the green light to the official document on the “Greater Bay Area” following extensive consultations with local governments, a Beijing source said. “No party or agenda, including even environmental protection, will be left behind by this all-inclusive blueprint,” the official said.

    More than three years in the making, the Greater Bay Area was first mentioned in a development action plan jointly outlined by China’s top authorities on economic planning, commerce and foreign affairs to create a new economic growth engine by pooling together Hong Kong, Macau and nine neighbouring cities in Guangdong province.

    The mega zone covers 56,500 square kilometres, has a combined population of about 67.6 million and accounted for 12.5 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2016.

    Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has taken part in discussions on the scheme since August last year, becoming the city’s first chief executive to join a leading group under China’s cabinet, the State Council.

    Authorities were now working on the implementation plan, Zhang said in an interview with state broadcaster CCTV which was aired on Saturday night.

    Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou and Shenzhen would be the central cities in the bay area, and each had their own unique positioning, he said.

    Hong Kong will be the international finance, navigation and trade centre, as well as a transport hub. It will have the role of pushing finance, trade, logistics and professional services towards the high-end market.

    Macau will be an international tourism city and a platform for trade with Portuguese-speaking countries. Guangzhou will take a leading role as a national central city while Shenzhen will take a leading role as a special economic region and an innovative city, he said.

    The planners hope the advantages these four cities enjoy can complement each other and offset the challenges brought by gaps in the legal and economic systems.

    The international network and mature market economy of Hong Kong and Macau could have big potential when combined with the vast hinterland and market Guangzhou enjoyed, he said.

    “Under the new circumstances, Hong Kong and Macau still have their unique position and advantages that cannot be replaced,” Zhang said.

    He revealed for the first time that there were almost 100,000 Hong Kong residents and nearly 20,000 Macau residents who had applied for a new identity card that would grant them access to a wide range of social and public services on the mainland. The arrangement was introduced on September 1 last year.

    There were high expectations that Beijing would reveal the blueprint when Premier Li Keqiang said in March last year there would be an announcement soon. But the central government has since been embroiled in a trade war with its biggest trading partner, the United States.

    Sources said that the tussles over political interests and dominance among the Greater Bay Area parties was a reason behind the delay and meant the central government had to step in to coordinate.

    “But the most important question here is whose model to follow and whether the tussle is about Hong Kong converting mainland cities or the other way around?” said an academic who has direct knowledge of the blueprint’s planning.

    “Mainland cities are hesitant to follow Hong Kong’s model in case they lose official powers.”

    An internal study by an official think tank seen by the Post said the crux of the Greater Bay Area integration was about putting “one country, two systems” into practice but differences in economic, tax, customs and legal systems that would ensure Hong Kong and Macau’s high degree autonomy have remained key challenges.

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