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Tag: GDP

  • Malaysia to post 4.4% GDP growth for Q4 2018: StanChart

    Malaysia to post 4.4% GDP growth for Q4 2018: StanChart

    Standard Chartered has projected Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to remain at 4.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2018. However, full-year GDP is expected to come in lower at 4.6% compared with 5.9% in 2017. Bank Negara Malaysia will release Q4 GDP data on Thursday.

    “We estimate GDP growth of 4.4% y/y, similar to Q3. Private consumption may have eased from the 9% y/y growth in Q3 as the boost from the tax holiday in June-August 2018 likely faded. Nevertheless, a rebound in mining and agriculture activity may have supported growth,“ Standard Chartered said in a research note.

    It added that private consumption was the main growth driver in 2018, accounting for 92% of GDP growth in the nine months (9M) of 2018 versus 64% for the same period of 2017, benefiting from the “tax-holiday” boost and strong labour market conditions.

    Meanwhile, private investment eased (primarily on lower investment in residential and commercial properties in the first quarter) and public investment extended its decline in 9M 2018.

    “Our GDP growth tracker suggests downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth forecast, with our tracker being reliant on more readily available externally driven activity data, such as IP, and less reflective of strong domestic consumption,” it said.

    Standard Chartered forecast 4.9% GDP growth for 2019, saying that private consumption is likely to remain the main growth pillar.

    “Beyond the consumer sector, we are slightly cautious on growth, especially given weak external demand. However, we see two one-off supportive factors. First, goods and services tax (GST) and income tax refunds amounting to RM37 billion (2.5% of GDP) may support spending (but these refunds have not been disbursed yet, posing downside risk to our growth forecast). Second, resumption of production capacity in the mining sector may also help.”

    On monetary policy, Standard Chartered said the latest meeting of Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee in January suggested that it is more dovish on the global outlook but still comfortable on domestic growth, underpinned by private consumption and private investment.

    “We maintain our call for Bank Negara Malaysia to keep rates on hold in 2019, with risks skewed towards a cut, especially if external demand worsens further and affects domestic activity.”

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  • US retail sales expected to grow at slower rate in 2019

    US retail sales expected to grow at slower rate in 2019

    US retail sales are expected to climb between 3.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent to more than US$3.6 trillion ($4.97 trillion) in 2019, according to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The predicted rise in retail sales, which is excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, however, would be less than the 4.6 per cent growth in 2018, citing threats from an ongoing trade war, the volatile stock market and the effects of the government shutdown.

    NRF said in August of last year it expected 2018 retail sales to be up at least 4.5 per cent.

    The retail industry group says the 2018 figure is its preliminary estimate for retail sales last year, pending the release of December data from the Commerce Department that was stalled from being announced during the government shutdown.

    Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, said the biggest priority is to ensure that the economy continues to grow and to avoid self-inflicted wounds.

    “It’s time for artificial problems like trade wars and shutdowns to end, and to focus on prosperity not politics,” Shay said.

    Shay said despite fears in the industry that a trade war in China or an economic slowdown might impact consumer spending, they believe the underlying state of the economy is sound.

    “More people are working, they’re making more money, their taxes are lower and their confidence remains high,” he said.

    Preliminary estimates, according to the NRF, show that retail sales during 2018 grew 4.6 per cent over 2017 to US$3.68 trillion ($5.08 trillion), exceeding NRF’s forecast of at least 4.5 per cent growth.

    The figures include online and other non-store sales, which were up 10.4 per cent to US$682.8 billion ($942.6 billion). That met NRF’s forecast of 10-12 per cent online growth, and online is expected to grow in the same 10-12 per cent range again this year. The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

    Growth of between 3.8 per cent and 4.4 percent would result in total 2019 retail sales of between US$3.82 trillion and $US3.84 trillion ($5.27 trillion to $5.3 trillion). Based on growth of 10-12 per cent, online sales would total between US$751.1 billion and US$764.8 billion ($1.03 trillion and $1.05 trillion), which are included in the total.

    The 2018 results are based on Commerce Department data up through November but include NRF estimates for December because the agency was closed during the recent government shutdown and has not yet released December figures.

    The NRF said the results are subject to revision once December numbers become available, and government numbers are revised again each spring regardless of the shutdown.

    “We are not seeing any deterioration in the financial health of the consumer,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF chief economist.

    “Consumers are in better shape than any time in the last few years,” Kleinhenz said. “Most important for the year ahead will be the ongoing strength in the job market, which will support the consumer income and spending that are both key drivers of the economy.”

    Kleinhenz said the bottom line is the economy is in a good place despite the ups and downs of the stock market and other uncertainties.

    “Growth remains solid,” he said.

    NRF said it expects the overall economy to gain an average of 170,000 jobs per month, down from 220,000 in 2018, and that unemployment – currently at 4 per cent – will drop to 3.5 per cent by the end of the year. Gross domestic product is likely to grow about 2.5 per cent over 2018.

    Kleinhenz said inflation and interest rates are expected to remain low this year and that retail sales have been helped by recent reductions in gasoline prices.

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  • Vietnam per capita income matches Malaysia’s 20 years ago

    Vietnam per capita income matches Malaysia’s 20 years ago

    Vietnam’s recent economic achievements notwithstanding, much effort is needed for it to close the gap with other countries, a minister has said. Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said at a conference Wednesday that while Vietnam’s GDP per capita had surged by 27.4 times in the last 30 years to almost $2,590 last year, Malaysia had achieved this figure 20 years ago.

    Thailand had done so 15 years ago and Indonesia 10 years ago.

    The main limitations of its economy were low labor productivity, economic efficiency and competitiveness, and the country also faced the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap.

    According to the 2018 Vietnam Annual Economic Report, average productivity per worker was VND60.73 million ($2,600) in 2017, lower than that of China, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia.

    Currently the country also faced challenges like the U.S.-China trade war, the minister said.

    For these reasons, institutional reforms were necessary to achieve a more sustainable economy, he noted.

    Macroeconomic stability and high economic growth with innovation in science and technology were imperative.

    The private sector had to remain one of the pillars of the economy in future, Dung said. “If Vietnam doesn’t catch the 4.0 train, the gap between it with other countries will become wider. Vietnam needs to narrow that gap.”

    Vietnam’s GDP has grown at 6.8 percent a year on average for the last 20 years, and the economy has grown 39 fold in the period to $245 billion last year.

    Growth last year was 7.08 percent, the highest in a decade.

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  • Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    Malaysia may feel bite of China economic slowdown

    The slowdown in China may impact Malaysia more given the strong trade linkage with China, according to PublicInvest Research. “China is not only our biggest trade partner in 2018 (YTD 2018: 16.7%) but also our largest export market (YTD 2018: 13.9%) and our second biggest import source after Singapore (YTD 2018:19.8%). This could bring negative ramifications not only to Malaysia but also to other peers like Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines and hence, the growth prospects of Asean-5,“ the research house said in a report.

    In fact, it said, the simmering trade stress has caused noticeable dent to export momentum in November with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia suffering a contraction in exports. This could be repeated in December.

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable outcomes to the trade negotiation may see longer times taken for growth to normalise due to demand deficiencies which are always more damaging than supply shocks.

    “Other than this, the pullback in global financial and commodity markets arising from pockets of stress mentioned above can hurt Malaysia as well due to contagion effects. This can bring down the ringgit in addition to putting a cap in the prices of our key commodity exports like crude oil, crude palm oil and rubber,“ it explained.

    The slowdown in China is particularly alarming and shows signs of worsening following the release of its 2018 growth of 6.6% (2017: 6.8%), the slowest since 1990.

    “We don’t see negative surprises in this as it is within the People’s Bank of China’s estimates,“ it said, adding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects China’s slowdown to continue, forecast to ease to 6.2% in 2019 amid firmed commitment to reforms and rebalancing on the back of the trade collision with the US.

    PublicInvest Research said the slew of IMF downgrades could result in negative ramifications not only to global financial markets but also commodities. Risk aversion could heighten, pushing investors to take less risks which may be precursor to elevating demand for safe haven assets particularly bonds.

    “Among all the growth risks mentioned by IMF, we are particularly concerned over China given its extensive trade network and huge economy.”

    PublicInvest Research said unfavourable trade negotiations could be harmful not only to China’s outlook but also emerging economies, particularly Asean, given their strong interdependence on trade. This could lead to inexorable downturns to Asean economies, particularly those that depend on China’s exports (intermediate goods).

    “Over and above all, we think that China still has sufficient tools to support growth should trade negotiations turn unfavourable although the impact could still be there.”

  • Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s GDP growth likely to return to 4.6-5.0% range in 2020: UBS economist

    Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to return to the 4.6-5% trend range in 2020 as economic drag diminishes, said UBS Investment Bank economist Edward Teather. He said the impact of the trade war and the government’s institutional reforms should go from drags on growth to net positive contributions to the country’s economy this year.

    “Pakatan Harapan’s institutional reforms and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) membership would improve prospects in 2020.

    “Malaysia is also a key potential beneficiary of the CPTPP trade deal,” he said during a conference call on global and Asian 2019 outlook.

    However, he said, Malaysia might lose some potential gains if it decided to pull out of the trade deal and this would impact GDP growth next year.

    “Without CPTPP, there will be less potential to be tapped; but it’s possible without the deal, the government would consider liberalisation, introducing more transparency and level playing field between private companies,” he said.

    Teather said trade war, slower China growth and institutional reform and fiscal consolidation policy initiatives would continue to drive the weakness in growth in the near term.

    Hence, he said, UBS expected Malaysia’s growth to be at 4% this year from the estimated 4.7% in 2018.

    “2019 will likely be a case of pain before gain. First, we expect Malaysia to be impacted by trade war-related disruption, but also to be well placed to subsequently take market share from China in the United States,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Teather expects the ringgit to fall to the RM4.40 level to the US dollar this year before improving in 2020. Malaysia being an open economy, the ringgit was pressured by the lower trade growth, he said.

    “Exports, in dollar terms, rose 10% in 2018 and would only grow 1% in 2019. So it’s quite a strong slowdown and that is partly because of lower oil prices and less demand for products and components,” he added.

    On the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR), he said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) may leave interest rates on hold throughout 2019.

    “Soft growth should allow BNM to look at acceleration in inflation driven by the change from the goods and services tax to the sales and service tax in 2018 and fuel subsidy reforms.

    “In early 2020, better growth momentum, confidence in CPTPP and trade war-linked supply-chain adjustments in Malaysia’s favour could lead to a 25-basis point rate hike by BNM,” he said.

    He forecast the US Federal Reserve would raise its benchmark interest rate once this year, in September, and that the Brent crude to hover at US$65 per barrel this year and US$73 per barrel in 2020.

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  • ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    ​Vietnam to remain a fast growing Asian economy

    With a 2019 GDP growth of 6.9 percent, Vietnam will remain one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. “We remain positive on Vietnam’s medium-term growth on strong manufacturing activity as FDI inflows to electronics manufacturing remain strong,” says economist Chidu Narayanan of Standard Chartered Bank. According to a report recently issued by the bank, the country is likely to reach GDP growth of 6.9 percent this year.

    The manufacturing sector has expanded by double digits for most of the past four years and this pace is likely to continue in 2019, says the report.

    The bank expects manufacturing growth to remain strong this year, though mildly lower than in 2018. Strong FDI inflows to manufacturing will likely support robust manufacturing output, it says.

    Standard Chartered economists also forecast FDI disbursement to stay at $15 billion this year and FDI inflows to the manufacturing sector, particularly electronics manufacturing, to remain high in the medium term.

    FDI disbursement in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 percent,  according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    “Most macro-economic indicators improved in 2018, interest and foreign exchange rates were kept stable despite the Fed’s hike in interest rates and U.S.-China tension, and non-performing loans were well-managed below three percent,” says Nirukt Sapru, CEO Vietnam and ASEAN and South Asia Cluster Markets.

    “We believe that the Vietnamese economy will remain one of the fastest growing in Asia and likely the fastest-growing ASEAN economy in 2019.”

    The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s GDP is likely to drop to 6.6 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates the country’s GDP for 2019 at 6.8 percent.

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent in 2018 was the highest in a decade, according to the General Statistics Office.

  • Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    Trade war could drag Malaysia’s GDP down to 3.2% this year

    A full-blown trade war could drag Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.2% this year, from an earlier projection of 4.7%, according to Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd head of research and chief economist Alan Tan. Tan said if the trade spat between the US and China were to escalate to a situation where tariffs are fully implemented on all Chinese goods, Malaysia’s GDP growth could be hit closer to 1.5 percentage point.

    “If Malaysia’s GDP is at 5%, the 1.5% will push the GDP growth down to 3.5%,” he told reporters at the press conference in conjunction with the bank’s launch ceremony of its Securities Borrowing and Lending (SBL) facility for retail investors yesterday.

    “Malaysia is an open economy and is still relying on trade. As we know, China today is the major market for Malaysia and if the global trade war were to escalate, we think that the Chinese economy, which has already shown signs of slowing down, may slow even further.

    “Therefore, we are of the view that Malaysia’s exports to China will be slowing down towards the second half of 2019 assuming if the trade war continues to drag on,” he added.

    However, Tan said domestic demand will continue to support the economic growth this year driven by several measures introduced by the government in Budget 2019, supporting the bank’s forecast on the GDP growth at the region of 4.7% this year.

    Additionally, he said that the bank opined that this time around, both US and China will be more willing to negotiate and possibly come out with a trade compromise by end of the first quarter this year, in view of the external uncertainties and weaker business sentiment.

    “Going into 2019, we already seeing signs of slowing down in the US and China. Unlike six months ago, where both economies continue to do relatively well,” he noted.

    Therefore, he said the bank believes that in the second half of 2019, following the resolutions of the global trade war, coupled with the weakening US dollar, interest will come back to the emerging market, including Malaysia.

    However, Tan said the bank expects that the market will remain flat in the first half of 2019 and looking at end-2019 target for the FBM KLCI at 1,810 points.

    On ringgit, he said the local currency is expected to appreciate to RM3.90-RM4.00 level in the second half of 2019, and possibly ending the year at RM3.90 against the US dollar, as the greenback is likely to soften towards the second half of the year.

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  • Malaysia’s GDP growth to ease to 4.7% this year: Moody’s

    Malaysia’s GDP growth to ease to 4.7% this year: Moody’s

    Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to recede to 4.7% in 2019 after averaging at around the 5% mark between 2015 and 2018 on the back of external headwinds, according to Moody’s Investors Service. For 2020, the economy is projected to moderate further to 4.5%. The rating agency foresees external headwinds from trade protectionism to weigh on trade activity, while the review of infrastructure projects and slowdown in public spending will also prove to be a further drag to growth.

    “Nevertheless, economic expansion will still stay stronger than the median average for A-rated sovereigns, even taking moderating growth into account,” it opined.

    Moody’s said Malaysia’s credit profile, which is rated at “A3 Stable” reflects its large and diversified economy with healthy medium-term growth prospects, and relatively high government debt that is partly offset by a favourable debt structure and large domestic savings.

    It pointed out that the govern-ment’s recent fiscal policy choices, particularly in abolishing the goods and services tax, will narrow its revenue base and reduce fiscal flexibility – while its debt burden which is significantly higher than the A-rated median, will remain a credit constraint.

    “However, deep domestic capital markets and high savings provide a stable funding pool for the government’s debt, and partly offset these fiscal weaknesses. A solid institutional framework that includes effective monetary policy supports the country’s credit profile,” Moody’s said.

    It also noted that pervasive corruption will likely to remain a challenge for the government, which will also undermine policy effectiveness.

    Moody’s said that given a stable outlook of the sovereign rating, a change in the rating is unlikely in the near term, but could face upward pressure if the scope for fiscal consolidation increases.

    Conversely, the rating agency said it would consider downgrading the sovereign rating in the event of weakened fiscal prospects, increased debt burden, growing political tensions and diverging views within the government, which could undermine policy effectiveness or impair the government’s ability to adhere to its fiscal consolidation objectives, potentially threatening the stability of capital flows to the country in the process.

  • World Bank sees slower global economic growth of 2.9% this year

    World Bank sees slower global economic growth of 2.9% this year

    The growth of the global economy is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2019 compared with 3% in 2018, the World Bank said on Tuesday, citing elevated trade tensions and international trade moderation. “At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead,“ World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva said in the semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report.

    The World Bank outlook comes as the United States and China have been engaged in a bitter trade dispute, which has jolted financial markets across the world for months. The two economies have imposed tit-for-tat duties on each other’s goods, although there have been signs of progress.

    Growth in the US is likely to slow to 2.5% this year from 2.9% in 2018, while China is expected to grow at 6.2% in the year compared with 6.5% in 2018, according to the World Bank.

    Emerging market economies are expected to grow at 4.2% this year, with advanced economies expected to grow at 2%, the World Bank said.

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  • Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam to see slower growth in 2019

    Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow down this year though it will remain a regional outperformer, according to leading global analysts. Fitch Solutions, an arm of Fitch Ratings, said in a report released Wednesday it expects Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow to 6.5 percent in 2019 in line with a wider trend of slowing global growth, but added the country would remain one of the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia.

    The economy grew by 7.1 percent last year, the fastest rate of expansion in 11 years, according to official data. This was well above the 6.5-6.7 percent target set by the National Assembly.

    “Its increasing openness and reliance on foreign investment suggests that it is unlikely to be spared from the global growth slowdown arising from rising trade protectionism and tighter financial conditions.

    “Although we believe that Vietnam’s manufacturing sector and economy will continue to outperform the region over the coming quarters, growth is likely to face headwinds stemming from rising global trade disruptions and tightening financial conditions, which will negatively impact global economic growth and risk sentiment,” Fitch Solutions stated.

    The World Bank Group in its bi-annual report on Vietnam issued last month said the country’s GDP growth is likely to slow from 6.8 percent in 2018 to 6.6 percent this year as the global economy weakens.

    Weaker global demand for exports and reduced investment and trade flows as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates are other risks for Vietnam’s economy, Sebastian Eckardt, the World Bank’s lead economist for Vietnam, said.

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a forecast released last month for the East Asia and Pacific region projected Vietnam’s growth at 6.8 percent for 2019, slightly lower than the 6.9 percent it expected for 2018. These rates are the second highest in the forecast behind only India’s.

    Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached a record $19.1 billion in 2018, up 9.1 percent year-on-year. With exports rising by 13.8 percent to $244.72 billion and imports at $237.51 billion, the country achieved its highest ever trade surplus of $7.21 billion last year.

    Fitch Solutions said in 2019 the manufacturing sector would remain a key economic growth driver and outperform the region.

    Vietnam has grown to become a manufacturing powerhouse, particularly in electronics, due to its relatively cheap and large workforce, geographical advantages, attractive tax breaks, stable political environment, and open trade policies.

    The opening up of the Vietnamese economy also came at an opportune time as China began to shift away from lower-end and export-oriented manufacturing to focus on the domestic economy.

    Vietnam’s continued commitment to economic liberalisation will also attract foreign manufacturers seeking to leverage its preferential trade deals.

    The country is a signatory to 10 bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTAs), with six more trade pacts in the offing, including the highly touted Vietnam-EU FTA.

    Fitch Solutions added that trade tensions between China and the US would continue to drive up costs for manufacturers operating in China, pushing companies to outsource to its neighbor Vietnam, which is more competitive in terms of wages.

  • Indonesia Posts Narrowest Budget Deficit in 6 Years in 2018: Finance Minister

    Indonesia Posts Narrowest Budget Deficit in 6 Years in 2018: Finance Minister

    Indonesia posted the smallest fiscal deficit in six years in 2018 and less than initially projected, despite turbulence in its financial markets due to capital outflows, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said in a Facebook post. The estimated budget deficit last year was equal to 1.72 percent of gross domestic product, narrower than both the government’s original plan of 2.19 percent and the latest estimate of 1.83 percent, Sri Mulyani said in a message posted late on New Year’s Eve.

    As a percentage of GDP, that was the smallest since 2012, the former World Bank managing director said.

    The 2018 budget also has a Rp 4.1 trillion ($283 million) surplus in its primary balance, or budget balance before interest payments, which Indrawati said was the first surplus since 2011.

    “We have done our duty to manage government finances well. The year 2018 was not an easy year with fluctuations in the global economy, commodity prices, capital flows and exchange rate,” she said, while also noting higher interest rates at home and globally.

    The rupiah plunged to its weakest in 20 years in 2018 due to capital outflows linked to worries about its twin deficits, US interest rate increases and concerns about the fallout for Asia from the US-China trade war.

    However, inflows towards the end of the year bounced it back and the currency closed the year 6 percent weaker compared with end-2017.

    Sri Mulyani said 2018 income from taxes and other revenue sources grew “high and healthy.” She previously said higher oil prices and a weaker rupiah had resulted in higher government revenues.

    The minister is expected to hold a news conference on budget realization on Wednesday.

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  • India eyes $100 billion FDI in next two years

    India eyes $100 billion FDI in next two years

    India will aim to receive $100 billion in foreign direct investments in the next two years and special industrial clusters are being created for countries like Japan, South Korea, China and Russia where their companies can invest and operate, Union minister Suresh Prabhu said. The commerce and industry minister said his ministry has also identified sectors and countries which holds huge potential for investments in India.

    “I have given a target. $100 billion of FDI should come from different sectors into India. It will not happen in one year. We have identified companies, sectors and countries and now we are going for road shows to attract investors,” Prabhu said.

    He said India would remain a top destination for foreign investors in 2019 and the ministry would look at all sectoral issues that may come come in the way to attracting overseas investments.

    “For countries like Japan, South Korea, China and Russia, we are creating industrial clusters where they can invest and operate,” Prabhu said.

    The minister said China has agreed to set up industrial parks in India and the Chinese authorities have been asked to give a list of companies that are willing to set up factories in India.

    Similarly, India would be happy to welcome firms from Europe and the US who want to move out of other countries and set up manufacturing bases in India, Prabhu said.

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  • Vietnam GDP growth tops 7 pct, highest in a decade

    Vietnam GDP growth tops 7 pct, highest in a decade

    Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.08 percent this year retained its status as one of the best performing economies in the world. It was the highest growth the country has experienced since 2008 and compared with the median estimate of 6.9 percent in a survey of 12 economists.

    The scale of the economy at present value is over VND5.53 quadrillion ($237.38 billion), with average GDP per capita at $2,587 per person, a $198 increase over 2017, Nguyen Bich Lam, head of the General Statistics Office, said Thursday afternoon.

    According the office, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector grew by 3.76 percent this year, and contributed to 8.7 percent to the country’s GDP. Corresponding figures for industry and construction sectors were 8.85 percent and nearly 49 percent; and that of the service sector, 7.03 percent and approximately 43 percent.

    Lam said that the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2018 fell by 0.25 percent compared to the previous month. On average, CPI in 2018 increased by 3.54 percent, well below the 4 percent target set by the National Assembly.

    Export turnover for the year is estimated at over $244.7 billion, up nearly 14 percent compared to 2017.

    The FDI sector (including crude oil) still accounts for nearly 70 percent of export turnover, at more than $175.5 billion.

    On the other hand, Vietnam imported more than $237.5 billion the whole year, up 11.5 percent over 2017.

    Overall, in 2018 Vietnam achieved a trade surplus of $7.2 billion.

    “The quality of economic growth has improved,” Lam said.

    The GSO director general explained that labor productivity this year saw an increase of nearly 6 percent compared to 2017, at VND102 million (nearly $4,512) per person.

  • Malaysia’s economy likely to grow in Feb to April 2019

    Malaysia’s economy likely to grow in Feb to April 2019

    Malaysia’s economy is likely to grow in February to April 2019, according to the performance of Malaysian Economic Indicators: Leading, Coincident & Lagging Indexes for October 2018 that was released last monday. Chief statistician Malaysia Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said the monthly change of Leading Index (LI) augmented in October 2018, registering a growth of 1.2% to attain 119.3 points from 117.9 points in the previous month, primarily due to the increase of real imports of other basic precious & other non-ferrous metals (0.4%).

    “The annual change of LI showed an improvement from negative 1.7% in September 2018 to negative 0.7% in October 2018. The composite of LI is designed to monitor the economic performance direction in an average of four to six months ahead,” he said in a statement.

    On the same note, he stated that the Coincident Index (CI), which reflects the current economic activity, rose 1.0% in October 2018. Two components that contributed significantly to the increase were volume index of retail trade (0.5%) and real contributions to EPF (0.2%). At the same time, the annual change of CI grew further to 3.9% in October 2018 as against 3.4% in the previous month.

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  • Vietnam to top 7 pct growth in 2018 and 2019

    Vietnam to top 7 pct growth in 2018 and 2019

    Vietnam may grow more than 7 percent in 2018, the highest in 10 years, and is likely to maintain the rate next year, experts say. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, director of development, and public policy lecturer at the Fulbright University of Vietnam, said the country’s economy is expected to grow at over 7 percent this year, the highest level since 2007.

    “The major contributor of growth comes from industries that benefit from policies to replace import goods, such as automobile and pharmaceutical production,” he said at a conference organized Thursday by the National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC).

    In 2017, Vietnam rode on 20-30 percent growth of phones and electronics, but this year, that sector’s growth slowed down to only 11 percent in the first 11 months of 2018, Thanh explained.

    He also noted that a positive aspect of the growth this year has been that it is no longer dependent on credit. The NFSC estimates credit growth to have slowed significantly to 15 percent this year from 18 percent in 2017.

    “Many experts were concerned that Vietnam’s high growth rate in previous years was linked to credit growth, but there has been strong economic growth this year without high credit growth,” Thanh said.

    Meanwhile, NFSC leaders said Vietnam’s growth may exceed 7 percent in 2018 and remain at between 6.9-7.1 percent in 2019.

    Truong Van Phuoc, acting chairman of the NFSC, said the high growth in 2018 is due to large contributions from the private sector. In addition, trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which are expected to come into effect in 2019, may also bring positive impacts.

    Vietnam also has the opportunity to attract investment as well as new opportunities from the field of information technology and biotechnology, he added.

    But experts also point out some factors that could affect economic growth next year. Thanh noted that growth this year was not only due to investment and export but also the heavy consumption.

    Any changes to consumption can have immediate effect on economic growth, he said.

    In the first nine months this year, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.98 percent, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2011. The economy grew by 6.81 percent last year, the highest rate in a decade.