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  • World Bank cuts Malaysia’s 2018 GDP growth forecast again

    World Bank cuts Malaysia’s 2018 GDP growth forecast again

    The World Bank has again revised downward its projection for Malaysia’s 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.7% from 4.9% after taking into account factors such the rigorous rationalisation of expenditure by the government and slowdown in private and public investment. It last cut the country’s GDP growth forecast in October, to 4.9% from 5.4%.

    Malaysia’s third quarter GDP growth moderated to 4.4%, bringing about a nine-month expansion of 4.7%.

    Despite a moderation in growth, the World Bank believes that the Malaysian economy remains resilient and continues to be anchored by private consumption, although it has been cooling down after the reintroduction of the sales and service tax.

    The key drivers for private consumption are stable labour market conditions, cost of living aid and tax refunds payment.

    Private investment in the manufacturing and commodity sectors are also expected to be sustained.

    Speaking at the launch of the World Bank’s Malaysia Economic Monitor on Realising Human Potential Report, World Bank Group economist Shakira Teh Sharifuddin said Malaysia’s economic growth is projected to remain flat at 4.7% in 2019, with external factors such as current trade tensions and increased volatility in the financial and commodity markets expected to weigh on the overall economy.

    In addition to the escalating trade tensions, monetary normalisation in advanced economies, high dependency on oil revenue and high level of public debt are seen as potential risk for the government.

    The percentage of the federal government’s revenue to GDP has seen a steep decline between 2012 and 2018, falling from 21.4% to 16.2%. In 2019, the share of revenue to GDP is expected to be reduced further to 15.1%.

    This, Shakira said, leaves the government with limited space to respond to economic shocks.

    In the near term, the government is expected to rigorously embark on fiscal consolidation measures with expenditure expected to decline to 18.1% of GDP from the 2018 estimate of 20.3%.

    Shakira said that while the introduction of new taxes in the budget is welcomed, the government should relook the incentive mechanisms.

    On another note, the World Bank stressed on the need for Malaysia to accelerate the development of its human capital if it wishes to join the ranks of a high-income nation.

    While Malaysia, which ranked 55th out of 157 countries in the Human Capital Index, fared well in some areas, there is room for improvement in certain areas, noted the report.

    It also states the prevalence of stunting among Malaysian children which affect more than one in five Malaysian children, a key indicator of malnutrition. In the absence of renewed efforts to develop human capital, a child born today in Malaysia will only reach a productivity level of 62%.

    In terms of education, the 12.2 years spent by Malaysians in school only equates to the 9.1 years learning outcome of school goers in the highest performing system.

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  • Vietnam eyes $10,000 per capita income by 2035

    Vietnam eyes $10,000 per capita income by 2035

    Vietnam has set target of increasing GDP per capita to $6,500 in 2030, and $10,000, or four times the current value, in 2035. The GDP in those years would then be $670 billion and $1.05 trillion, according to an economic policy framework for the period up to 2035 recently issued by the Ministry of Planning and Investment. This will make Vietnam an upper middle-income country.

    Vietnam has also targeted to reduce its poverty rate to 1 percent and increasing the middle-class rate to 50 percent by 2035.

    The middle and affluent class now is categorized as those earning $714 a month or more, according to the Boston Consulting Group.

    According to the document, encouraging the continued development of the private sector and developing human resources and innovations taking advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution would be two of the driving forces for economic growth.

    The country hopes to have two million private businesses that contribute 50 percent of its GDP by 2020 and 60-65 percent by 2030.

    The reforms to achieve these goals will focus on modernizing the economy and developing the private sector, building innovation capacity, improving economic efficiency of urbanization, and building modern institutions and efficient governance.

    Vietnam also aims to ensure its development is environmentally sustainable and equitable, promote social inclusion and enhance its adaptability to climate change.

    Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said strong reforms are needed to continue developing and not fall behind the times.

    Speaking to Vietnam’s development partners at a forum on reform and development Wednesday, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said: “We have the aspiration to become a prosperous economy, but we are fully aware that the road will be uneven with many challenges. Those are the challenges from both within the economy and the impacts caused by fluctuations in the global economy.”

    To address these issues he pledged his government would soon speed up administrative reform and establish an economic system that enables all economic entities to have the right to participate in making development plans and policies.

    “Vietnam will focus on building its soft and digital infrastructure to convert the economy into a digital one, reform its recruitment mechanism and focus on training human resources to make use of the fourth industrial revolution as a driving force for growth.”

    According to World Bank Group statistics, Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2017 is $2,343. The figure for Singapore is $57,714, Malaysia ($9,945), Thailand ($6,594), the Philippines ($2,989) and Myanmar ($1,298).

    Minister Dung estimated that Vietnam’s GDP would grow by 6.57 percent on average in the 2016-2018 period, meeting the National’s Assembly target of 6.5-6.7 percent growth.

    In the first nine months this year, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.98 percent, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2011. The economy grew by 6.81 percent last year, the highest rate in a decade.

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  • UOB: Malaysia’s GDP to grow at 4.8% for 2018, 2019

    UOB: Malaysia’s GDP to grow at 4.8% for 2018, 2019

    Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to remain stable and expand at 4.8% for the full year of 2018 and 2019. UOB Malaysia’s senior economist, Julia Goh said the 2019 forecast has been revised from the 5% projection made earlier, to 4.8% after taking into account the potential impacts from the US-China trade tensions.

    Goh noted that while Malaysia’s economy is not immune to external headwinds such as the trade tensions between the two economic giants, rising US interest rates and commodity prices—Malaysia could certainly find support from its robust domestic private consumption and investment.

    The ringgit is expected to stand at RM4.22 against the Greenback next year on the back of external factors such as the strength of the dollar, crude oil prices and the direction of the renminbi.

    Inflation rate for 2018 is expected to be 1.2% and 2% in 2019.

    “I think it is actually slightly lower than the government’s official forecast. I think the main support for inflation is we are seeing resilient spending even with the reintroduction of the Sales and Service Tax, we did not see any significant effect on the consumer price index,” she said.

    Key risk for inflation I think (will be) in the second quarter of next year where the government announced that they want to float oil prices,” she added.

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  • Malaysia’s Central Bank confident of 4.8% GDP growth in 2018

    Malaysia’s Central Bank confident of 4.8% GDP growth in 2018

    Economists have mixed views on Malaysia’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth despite the central bank’s confidence the economy will expand 4.8% this year. Sunway University Business School’s Professor of Economics Dr Yeah Kim Leng expects GDP growth for 2018 to come in at 4.7% to 4.8% while growth in 2019 could be better than this year if there is sustained global demand.

    “For 2019, GDP (growth) would be closer to 5%. It may exceed that if the global economy holds up, in terms of lessening trade tension and strengthening of China’s economy,” he said.

    However, Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew said this year’s GDP growth is unlikely to hit 4.8%, as the quarterly expansions have been on the decline.

    “We had 5.4%, 4.5% and 4.4% for the first three quarters (respectively) this year. It would require substantially stronger growth than what we saw in Q3 to hit 4.8% full-year growth,” he said.

    The Malaysian economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) announced on Friday.

    Pong said the final quarter of the year does not have the tail wind that would boost consumption and expects full-year growth to come in at 4.5% to 4.6%.

    “For 2019, it is quite a challenge to forecast due to global growth slowing. We face headwinds from global growth as we are an export dependent economy. Net exports from goods and services are fluctuating,” he added.

    Pong expects GDP growth in 2019 to be similar to 2018’s, due to the unpredictability of global trade.

    Commenting on the economic performance in Q3, Yeah said it was softer than expected, which weighed down on growth momentum.

    “In the third quarter, services (sector) was good, largely due to private consumption. Growth was largely driven by the services and manufacturing sectors. As long as we can sustain the current growth momentum, a lower oil price will not affect GDP growth,” he said.

    On the supply shocks that affected growth in the first nine months, Yeah said the situation is likely to improve as the unscheduled maintenance shutdowns are over, with less disruption and gradual rebound projected.

    Pong, who expected Q3 GDP growth of 4%, said the 4.4% achieved was better than projected in view of the high base of 6.2% a year ago.

    “In Q3, the challenge was the high base in Q3 last year, when we achieved GDP growth of 6.2%. It is difficult to achieve strong year-on-year growth. Many expected Q3 to be strong due to consumption spending following the removal of Goods and Services Tax (GST).

    Retail numbers were stronger than what I expected. Consumption was stronger, therefore services was stronger,” he said.

    He noted that private consumption was stronger at 9% in Q3 (8% in Q2), which is a rare occurrence, while public consumption was also stronger at 5.2% (3.1% in Q2).

    Both Yeah and Pong cautioned that the softening in the plantation sector, especially palm oil prices, could affect smallholders’ income, which would in turn affect consumer spending.

    “If commodity prices fall, it will hit GDP. If CPO (crude palm oil) continues to be weak, it will have a negative impact on consumption. In particular, CPO and rubber. As it is now, commodity prices are weak and are still falling,” said Pong.

    However, Yeah said the impact on consumer spending would not be that large in view of the government’s spending and policies that remain supportive of consumption.

    At a media briefing last Friday, BNM governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus said private consumption expanded strongly during the quarter following the zerorisation of GST.

    “On the supply side, the services and manufacturing sectors supported growth, while the mining sector continued to be affected by production shocks.”

    She said growth could have been 0.5 to 0.7 percentage point higher in the absence of commodity shocks, as 17% of the economy (agriculture, mining and quarrying) contracted by 1.3%.

    Nonetheless, Nor Shamsiah believes the economy is on track to register a growth of 4.8% for 2018, supported by private sector activity with gradual recovery in commodity production lending support to growth.

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  • Indonesia’s Third-Quarter GDP Growth Slows as Consumer, Export Sectors Struggle

    Indonesia’s Third-Quarter GDP Growth Slows as Consumer, Export Sectors Struggle

    Indonesia’s economic growth slowed in the third quarter, losing momentum from the previous three months and pointing to tougher conditions for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, which has struggled with capital outflows and weaker exports and household spending.

    Gross domestic product expanded 5.17 percent in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) said on Monday, compared with a 5.15 percent expansion expected in a Reuters poll and the second quarter’s 5.27 percent. The April-June quarter pace was the fastest since late 2013.

    The slowdown was largely due to softer household consumption in the third quarter and a negative contribution from foreign trade.

    Although the expansion was a notch faster than expected, economists warn growth may weaken further.

    “We think growth will tend to be slower in the coming future due to the impact of weakening rupiah,” said Fakhrul Fulvian, a Jakarta-based chief economist of Trimegah Securities. He expects GDP to grow 5.13 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019.

    The rupiah is down around 9 percent this year, making it the second-worst performing currency among emerging Asian markets.

    Though a weaker currency has not stoked inflation, the central bank has raised interest rates five times since May to slow capital outflows in a measure analysts say could dampen domestic demand.

    Alex Holmes, Asia analyst at Capital Economics, said growth will probably stay around 5 percent over the next couple of years.

    “A key drag on growth over the next year is likely to be the export sector,” Holmes said in a note, adding that weaker global growth and subdued commodity prices could hold back export revenues.

    Weaker coal and palm oil prices have been a drag on Indonesia’s exports, with the fall in the local currency unable to offset the hit to revenues from the softer commodity prices.

    The export sector’s contribution to GDP in the third quarter was wiped out by imports. BPS chief Suhariyanto blamed this on declining non-oil and gas commodity prices as well as slower growth in main trading partners like China and Singapore.

    Stronger investment and government spending also failed to mitigate slowing household consumption, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia’s GDP.

    While a trade war between the United States and China is expected to hurt economic growth in the region, most analysts say Indonesia, which is less integrated into global production supply chains than its regional peers, will not be among the worst hit.

    However, the trade war could pressure the Indonesian economy through its financial markets.

    In addition to Bank Indonesia’s rate hikes, the government has delayed infrastructure projects and raised tariffs for a wide range of consumer goods, which could further hurt growth.

    Barclays economist Rahul Bajoria said tighter fiscal policy next year also clouds growth outlook.

    While the government’s official GDP growth target this year is 5.4 percent, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati last month told the House of Representatives that 2018 growth was more likely to be 5.14 percent.

    The government projects growth at 5.3 percent for next year.

    Bank Mandiri economist Andry Asmoro said the third-quarter growth figures were unlikely to affect the central bank’s monetary stance.

    “The global challenge is still huge and prioritizing stability over growth remains relevant in the current environment,” he said.

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  • Vietnam’s per capita GDP up 17.3 pct in 3 years: PM

    Vietnam’s per capita GDP up 17.3 pct in 3 years: PM

    This year’s estimated per capita GDP of $2,540 marks a $440 increase over 2015, PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc informed the National Assembly Monday. In term of purchasing power parity (PPP), the per capita income in 2018 is estimated at $7,640, and expected to rise annually by six percent to reach $8,580 in 2020, the prime minister said.

    “Many international organizations said that Vietnam has good prospects, and is one of the fastest growing economies in the region and in the world,” Phuc noted.

    Vietnam is likely to achieve GDP growth of 6.7 percent in 2018, he said, adding that despite complex fluctuations in the domestic and global economies, caused in particular by the US-China trade war, as well as financial and currency market risks, Vietnam has managed to pull through 2018 with several positive economic signs.

    GDP growth reached 6.98 percent between January and September, and foreign direct investment inflows into Vietnam this year will likely reach a record $18 billion, Phuc said.

    It is expected that inflation will be kept at below 4 percent for the year, the third year in a row that the government has maintained this level, he added.

    Vietnam is aiming to post economic growth of between 6.6-6.8 percent in 2019, the PM said, adding that the target of keeping inflation below 4 percent will also be applied.

    However, he conceded that there was pressure on Vietnam’s inflation rate due to higher crude and electricity prices as well as costlier education and healthcare services.

    To speed up economic development, the Government plans to push ahead with the state-owned enterprise restructuring plan, Phuc said.

    “We want to restructure public investment more effectively and improve the efficiency of capital use. Furthermore, the privatization and divestment of state-owned enterprises will ensure publicity, transparency and maximization of the State’s interests,” the PM said.

    He emphasized the need for strong development of the private sector and the creation of a favourable and competitive environment that maximizes resources and improves all economic sectors.

    The Government will also focus on public investment, speeding up implementation of projects like the North-South expressway and the Long Thanh International Airport in southern Dong Nai Province, the PM said.

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  • Vietnam to cut dependancy on crude oil

    Vietnam to cut dependancy on crude oil

    A prime ministerial advisory body has said the state budget is overly dependent on crude oil, an unsustainable income source. The National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) recently said crude oil is not a sustainable income source, both in the short and long term.

    In the short term, crude oil revenue can be affected by global oil prices and mining output; and the state budget has been significantly impacted by such fluctuations over the years, the NFSC noted.

    In the long run, this source of income is also unsustainable as national reserves are limited, it added.

    Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue had said at a meeting of the legislative National Assembly that Vietnam needs to stop relying on crude oil and focus on tourism to ensure its economic growth.

    “It is better to welcome one million tourists than trying to find one million tons of crude oil because tourism is more eco-friendly and safe for the economy,” he’d said.

    Vietnam’s September crude oil exports totaled 375,000 tons, down 21.1 percent year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office. This brought crude oil exports in the first nine months of this year to 2.97 million tons, down 45.2 percent from a year earlier.

    From early this year to September 15, accumulated budget revenue is estimated to be at VND898.3 trillion ($39.06 billion), of which VND43.5 trillion ($1.89 billion) or about 5 percent comes from crude oil, according to the General Statistics Office.

    Vietnam’s domestic crude oil production reached its peak in 2004 with an output of more than 20 million tons, but has declined to an estimated 14.2 million tons in 2017.

    It is forecast that around 11 million tons will be produced in 2018. Crude oil exports have contributed 0.25 percent to the country’s GDP in recent years.

  • Vietnam’s authority no longer certain about 2020 GDP target

    Vietnam’s authority no longer certain about 2020 GDP target

    Vietnam’s GDP per capita is set to increase this year, but its 2020 target of $3,200-3,500 looks distant. Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said at a National Assembly meeting Monday that if Vietnam’s GDP increases by 6.7 percent this year, per capita GDP will reach $2,540, up $155, or 6.1 percent year-on-year, and 1.21 times that of 2015.

    However, the number is still far away from the country’s target of $3,200-3,500 by 2020, he conceded.

    According to World Bank Group statistics, Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2017 is $2,343. The figure for Singapore is $57,714, Malaysia ($9,945), Thailand ($6,594), the Philippines ($2,989) and Myanmar ($1,298).

    Minister Dung estimated that Vietnam’s GDP would grow by 6.57 percent on average in the 2016-2018 period, meeting the National’s Assembly target of 6.5-6.7 percent growth.

    However, he expressed concerns about the increasing number of businesses that stopped operations in the first nine months of this year.

    While 96,610 new businesses opened, 73,100 closed, up 48 percent year-on-year.

    These figures worried government officials at the meeting. Vu Hong Thanh, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, said that the goal of having one million businesses by 2020 will be “difficult to achieve.”

    Last year Vietnam had over 560,000 active businesses, up 11 percent year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office.

    But in another meeting last week, Deputy Prime Minster Vuong Dinh Hue said that the goal “is full of challenges, but achievable.”

    Hue said that how strong these businesses are and how much they can contribute to the economy is more important.

    “The government aims to practically improve the business environment by not imposing more conditions,” he said.

    In the first nine months this year, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.98 percent, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2011. The economy grew by 6.81 percent last year, the highest rate in a decade.

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  • Vietnam urged to cut dependence on crude oil

    Vietnam urged to cut dependence on crude oil

    A prime ministerial advisory body has said the state budget is overly dependent on crude oil, an unsustainable income source. The National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) recently said crude oil is not a sustainable income source, both in the short and long term.

    In the short term, crude oil revenue can be affected by global oil prices and mining output; and the state budget has been significantly impacted by such fluctuations over the years, the NFSC noted.

    In the long run, this source of income is also unsustainable as national reserves are limited, it added.

    Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue had said at a meeting of the legislative National Assembly that Vietnam needs to stop relying on crude oil and focus on tourism to ensure its economic growth.

    “It is better to welcome one million tourists than trying to find one million tons of crude oil because tourism is more eco-friendly and safe for the economy,” he’d said.

    Vietnam’s September crude oil exports totaled 375,000 tons, down 21.1 percent year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office. This brought crude oil exports in the first nine months of this year to 2.97 million tons, down 45.2 percent from a year earlier.

    From early this year to September 15, accumulated budget revenue is estimated to be at VND898.3 trillion ($39.06 billion), of which VND43.5 trillion ($1.89 billion) or about 5 percent comes from crude oil, according to the General Statistics Office.

    Vietnam’s domestic crude oil production reached its peak in 2004 with an output of more than 20 million tons, but has declined to an estimated 14.2 million tons in 2017.

    It is forecast that around 11 million tons will be produced in 2018. Crude oil exports have contributed 0.25 percent to the country’s GDP in recent years.

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  • Vietnam’s per capita GDP long way away from 2020 target

    Vietnam’s per capita GDP long way away from 2020 target

    Vietnam’s GDP per capita is set to increase this year, but its 2020 target of $3,200-3,500 looks distant. Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said at a National Assembly meeting Monday that if Vietnam’s GDP increases by 6.7 percent this year, per capita GDP will reach $2,540, up $155, or 6.1 percent year-on-year, and 1.21 times that of 2015.

    However, the number is still far away from the country’s target of $3,200-3,500 by 2020, he conceded.

    According to World Bank Group statistics, Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2017 is $2,343. The figure for Singapore is $57,714, Malaysia ($9,945), Thailand ($6,594), the Philippines ($2,989) and Myanmar ($1,298).

    Minister Dung estimated that Vietnam’s GDP would grow by 6.57 percent on average in the 2016-2018 period, meeting the National’s Assembly target of 6.5-6.7 percent growth.

    However, he expressed concerns about the increasing number of businesses that stopped operations in the first nine months of this year.

    While 96,610 new businesses opened, 73,100 closed, up 48 percent year-on-year.

    These figures worried government officials at the meeting. Vu Hong Thanh, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, said that the goal of having one million businesses by 2020 will be “difficult to achieve.”

    Last year Vietnam had over 560,000 active businesses, up 11 percent year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office.

    But in another meeting last week, Deputy Prime Minster Vuong Dinh Hue said that the goal “is full of challenges, but achievable.”

    Hue said that how strong these businesses are and how much they can contribute to the economy is more important.

    “The government aims to practically improve the business environment by not imposing more conditions,” he said.

    In the first nine months this year, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.98 percent, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2011. The economy grew by 6.81 percent last year, the highest rate in a decade.

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  • Malaysia’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.9% for 2018

    Malaysia’s GDP growth to moderate to 4.9% for 2018

    Malaysia’s economic growth is expected to ease to 4.9% in 2018, as export growth slows and lower public investment following the cancellation of major infrastructure projects, said World Bank chief economist for the East Asia and Pacific region Sudhir Shetty.

    As a highly open economy, he said Malaysia will continue to face substantial risks relating to uncertainty in the external environment.

    Heightened financial market volatility either triggered by shifting monetary policy expectations in advanced economies could spread across emerging economies, including Malaysia.

    Another key risk relates to the escalation in protectionist tendencies and trade tensions in some major economies that could have an adverse impact on Malaysia, given its high level of integration with global markets.

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  • Vietnam 9-month GDP growth highest in 8 years

    Vietnam 9-month GDP growth highest in 8 years

    Vietnam’s GDP grew by 6.98 percent between January and September, the highest nine-month growth rate since 2011.

    Data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO) Friday showed growth in the third quarter was 6.88 percent year-on-year.

    In the year-to-date agriculture and fisheries grew by 3.65 percent, the highest since 2012. Industry and construction grew by 8.89 percent and services by 6.89 percent.

    Between January and September, the country earned $178.9 billion from exports, a year-on-year increase of 15.4 percent, while spent $173.52 billion on imports, up 11.8 percent.

    Exports of 26 items each topped $1 billion. Three of them exceeded the $10-billion mark: electronics-computers-components, machinery-equipment and phones-components.

    Inflation was at 3.57 percent in the first nine months of this year. Vietnam set target to keep inflation below 4 percent for the whole year.

    “Growth in the first nine months showed many positive results. However, there are still many challenges, especially in the background of the China-U.S. trade war,” GSO general director Nguyen Bich Lam said on Friday.

    The escalating trade friction between the U.S. and China poses a threat to countries like Vietnam which exports intermediate goods to China, while weaker global demand will also act as a drag on growth prospects, Reuters quoted Capital Economics as saying Friday.

    The research firm projected Vietnam’s growth rate to slow down from 7 percent this year to 6 percent in 2019 and 2020.

    But the trade spat has not yet affected Vietnam’s exports to the U.S, Lam said. Vietnam could seek opportunities to boost exports and welcome foreign investments, while watching out for risks including transhipment to avoid tax, similar tariffs imposed on Vietnam and global trade contraction, he added.

    In a report issued Wednesday, the Asian Development Bank forecast Vietnam’s GDP to expand by 6.9 percent this year.

    The economy grew by 6.81 percent last year, the highest rate in a decade.

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  • Malaysia’s second quarter GDP growth expected to ease to 5.2%

    Malaysia’s second quarter GDP growth expected to ease to 5.2%

    Malaysia’s economic growth pace likely slowed again in the second quarter of 2018, a Reuters poll showed.

    The median of forecasts from 14 economists is for annual growth of 5.2% in April-June. That would be a dip from January-March’s 5.4% and make the latest quarter – during which Malaysia surprisingly got a new government – the third in a row of slowing growth.

    Forecasts for second quarter growth ranged from 4.7-5.6%.

    “Growth likely eased in Q2 and may continue to moderate, with growth drivers shifting more to private consumption than investment,” Standard Chartered said in a research note.

    The bank said growth may have been weighed down by a 6.4% drop in palm oil production from a year earlier and by Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s push to review major infrastructure projects which has spooked investors.

    Since his coalition gained power in a shock May general election, Mahathir has scrapped a broad-based consumption tax and announced plans to potentially scrap multi-billion dollar rail projects with China and Singapore.

    Mahathir, who at 93 is on his second stint as premier, has said that mismanagement by the past administration has caused national debt to balloon to RM1 trillion.

    Ratings firm Moody’s said demand for tech exports has helped Malaysia’s manufacturing and exports in the second quarter, along with higher private spending following a tax holiday that started in early June when the government zero-rated its goods and services tax.

    “The brakes will be applied a little to the upbeat growth engine in the second half as the newly elected government has ended some infrastructure projects,” Moody’s said in a research note on Aug 7.

    Malaysia’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.25% in July, at its first policy meeting under new governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus.

    The central bank raised its rate by 25 basis points in January, its first hike since July 2014, and the first change since July 2016 when it slashed the rate by 25 basis points.

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  • US-China trade war could drag Vietnam GDP down

    US-China trade war could drag Vietnam GDP down

    Vietnam’s GDP could drop slightly as a result of the ongoing US-China trade war, a new report says.

    The report, released Wednesday by the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast (NCIF), predicts a drop of 0.03 percent this year, 0.09 percent next year and 0.12 percent in 2020 and 2021.

    This equals to a GDP drop of VND1.65 trillion ($71 million) this year and VND5.3 trillion ($228 million) next year. The decline will climax at VND8 trillion ($344 million) in 2021, says the NCIF, which functions under the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

    This drop is “relatively low,” even at the climax in 2021, said Tran Toan Thang, head of NCIF’s Department of World Economic Issues.

    While Vietnam’s exports will also decrease because of the negative impacts of the trade war, there will be negligible impact on foreign direct investment, Thang said.

    He also expressed concern over the new U.S. tax law that lowers its business tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, he added.

    The new law might make U.S. businesses reconsider their investment strategies to focus more on their home country instead of expanding in Vietnam, Thang said.

    The tax deduction might also result in some countries creating more incentives to retain U.S. investments. China has recently said it would temporarily give U.S. firms tax exemptions to stop them from withdrawing from the country, Thang noted.

    “This move will lower competitiveness of the investment environment in Vietnam,” he added.

    Tension escalates

    Trade tension between the U.S. and China continues to escalate. A Reuters report cited Beijing saying on Wednesday that it would slap additional tariffs of 25 percenton $16 billion worth of U.S. imports.

    The announcement came after Washington said it would impose 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods after imposing tariffs on $34 billion last month.

    So far, China has now either imposed or proposed tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. goods, representing the vast majority of its annual imports of American products.

    Experts have previously cautioned that Vietnam will suffer collateral damage from this trade war.

    When large corporations no longer see the attractiveness of developing countries, their capital will flow back to the big countries, said Pham Sy Thanh, a department head at the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR).

    For this reason, the abundance of labor will no longer be a perk for developing countries like Vietnam, Thanh told VnExpress.

    Local economists are also concerned that the weakened Chinese yuan will result in a rush of low quality Chinese goods to Vietnam, including textiles, garments and wood products.

    This is not just a trade war, but “a war on power, technology and currency policy between the world’s two largest economies,” Tran Tuan Anh, Minister of Industry and Trade said at a government meeting last month.

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  • Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow after record performance in Q1

    Vietnam’s GDP growth to slow after record performance in Q1

    Vietnam’s decade high growth in the first quarter is forecast to slow during the rest of the year, a parliamentary meeting heard on Monday.

    The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.38 percent in the first three months thanks to strong performance in three key economic sectors, agriculture, industry-construction and processing-manufacturing, said deputy prime minister Truong Hoa Binh at the opening meeting of the 14th National Assembly, the highest legislative body in Vietnam.

    However, the deputy PM pointed out that GDP growth is unlikely to maintain its momentum for the rest of the year and slow down instead due to lack of any breakthrough factors compared to last year.

    In 2017, Vietnam’s economy expanded rapidly due to strong exports driven by South Korea’s electronics giant Samsung and Taiwanese steel firm Formosa.

    The deputy PM expects this year’s main driver of growth to be processing-manufacturing, the most likely sector to see any breakthroughs.

    Growth this year will be undermined by lower mining output, especially crude oil extraction which is forecast to be down by 2 million tons compared to 2017.

    The reduced tax on some items imported from ASEAN countries is also believed to obstruct growth, deputy PM Binh said.

    Vu Hong Thanh, chairman of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly, said high growth achieved in the first quarter has created a big challenge for the rest of the year if Vietnam is to aim for ever higher growth.

    Thanh is also concerned about increasing healthcare, education and food prices, which are forecast to contribute 2-2.5 percentage points to this year’s inflation hike.

    Protectionism and trade tensions between China and the U.S. have also affected Vietnam’s trade activities, Thanh said.

    The committee asked the government to pay greater attention to growth quality, restructure the economy and to continue to closely monitor the situation, keeping adjustments to fuel, service and food prices in mind.

    Vietnam’s annual trade now exceeds 185 percent of GDP, making it the second most trade dependent economy in Southeast Asia, behind Singapore, according to the Asian Development Outlook 2018 report released last month.

    The Ministry of Planning and Investment has forecast country’s economic growth this year to be at 6.7 or 6.8 percent.

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