In the first half of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) received over $4 billion in remittances, marking a considerable decrease of almost 23% compared to the same period in the previous year. Factors contributing to this downward trend include a sluggish global economy, more restrictive immigration policies, and shifts in capital flows, all of which negatively affected overseas Vietnamese transfers.
During the second quarter, remittances that were transferred via credit institutions and economic organizations amounted to $2.03 billion. Although this reflects a slight increase of 1.4% from the first quarter, it is a significant decrease of 27.9% compared to the same quarter last year, as reported by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s Region 2 Branch.
Geographical Distribution of Remittances
Tran Thi Ngoc Lien, the Deputy Director of the SBV’s Region 2 Branch, disclosed that Asia continued to be the most significant source of remittances, contributing over $1 billion, representing 49.3% of total inflows. This figure is up by 9.8% from the previous quarter. The Americas came in second, contributing $672.6 million, making up over 33% of the total.
In the first quarter, remittances from Asia increased by 9.8%, becoming the primary force of recovery. However, inflows from Europe, the Americas, and Oceania decreased.
For the first six months, Asia and the Americas remained the leading sources, accounting for over 81% of total remittances. Asia led the way with $1.92 billion, accounting for 47.5% of the total. The Americas followed with $1.38 billion, or 34.1%, and Oceania contributed $418.3 million or 10.4% of the total.
Contributing Factors and Future Projections
According to Lien, the decline in remittances is attributed to a mix of international and domestic factors. Slow global economic growth, the strong U.S. dollar, and stricter immigration policies in several countries have all affected employment and income, impeding the ability of overseas Vietnamese to send money home.
Inflationary pressures, increased living costs, labor market changes, and tax policy adjustments related to certain money transfer transactions have also impacted the Americas, particularly the U.S. – a significant remittance market for HCMC.
Domestically, the SBV’s Region 2 Branch pointed out that some investment channels have not been attractive enough to absorb remittance capital. Moreover, the interest rates for foreign currency deposits have remained at 0%, leading some overseas Vietnamese to keep their funds abroad or shift them to other investment assets.
Nevertheless, the SBV’s Region 2 Branch predicts a potential recovery, provided the global economy avoids major disruptions, and the current recovery trend persists in the second half of the year. The projections suggest that HCMC’s total remittance inflows in 2026 could reach between $8.6 and $8.9 billion.
Despite being below levels recorded in previous years, remittances are expected to recover more noticeably on a quarterly basis, bolstered by the easing of international interest rate conditions, exchange rate stability, and the continued effectiveness of banks’ remittance promotion programs.
Questions & Answers
Why have remittances to HCMC reduced significantly in the first half of 2026?
The decline can be attributed to global economic challenges, tighter immigration policies, and shifts in capital flows that have affected overseas Vietnamese transfers.
Which regions are the main contributors to remittances to HCMC?
Asia and the Americas are the two principal sources of remittances to HCMC, collectively accounting for over 81% of total remittances.
What are the expectations for HCMC’s remittances in the second half of 2026?
If the global economy remains stable and the current recovery trend continues, HCMC’s total remittance inflows are projected to reach between $8.6 and $8.9 billion in 2026.
