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Tag: stock market

  • Foreign investors return to surging Vietnamese stock markets

    Foreign investors return to surging Vietnamese stock markets

    At over VND3 trillion ($129.21 million), foreign buying in the local bourses from February 1-25 is three times the January figure. Foreign investment since the beginning of the year has been worth over VND4.3 trillion ($185.16 million). They have been focusing on blue chips like Hoa Phat (HPG), one of Vietnam’s leading steel producers. The company, ignored for the last several months, returned to the portfolio of foreign investors and saw millions of shares traded every day in February.

    In the 11 sessions after the market reopened February 11 after the nine-day Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday from Feb 2-10, foreigners bought 20 million shares for more than VND600 billion ($25.8 million). A month earlier they had been net sellers of over 10 million shares.

    Other blue chips like Vietnam’s biggest dairy company Vinamilk (VNM), private conglomerate Masan Group (MSN) and the biggest bank by assets Vietcombank (VCB) have all run up quite sharply as a result of buying by foreign investors.

    The benchmark VN-Index has gained more than 100 points this year, equivalent to over 11 percent. On Monday it closed at 994.43 points, within touching distance of the psychological 1,000-point mark.

    Foreigners have played a significant role in the recovery, having invested over VND4.3 trillion ($185.16 million) in the period, almost half of it since Tet.

    According to Rong Viet Securities Company, foreign investment this year could actually go down as a result of the reduction in monetary easing and fiscal stimulus across the globe this year, meaning there is less foreign cash available to invest in marginal markets such as Vietnam.

    But it also points out that Vietnam is on the verge of being upgraded to ‘emerging’ market, which could be a positive sign for foreign investors.

  • Asia markets rally as Trump delays China tariffs

    Asia markets rally as Trump delays China tariffs

    Shanghai led a rally across Asian markets Monday after Donald Trump said he would delay a hike in tariffs on Chinese goods citing “substantial progress” in trade talks and fuelling hopes of an end to their long-running stand-off. Optimism over the negotiations had already provided support to global equities, spurring a rally in January and February, but the president’s comments gave extra ammunition to investors to ramp up the buying.

    The news also fired currency markets with the yuan extending gains to a seven-month high, while other high-yielding, riskier units were also up against the dollar.

    Trump said on Twitter that the US “has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues”.

    He added: “As a result of these very productive talks, I will be delaying the US increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1.”

    The president also said he planned to hold a summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to sign a deal.

    China’s Xinhua news agency added that the two sides had “made substantial progress on specific issues” including on transfer of technology, intellectual property and agriculture.

    ‘Sigh of relief’

    In morning trade, Shanghai jumped 2.8% and Hong Kong added 0.4% while Tokyo ended the morning 0.7% higher.

    Sydney and Singapore each put on 0.1%, while Seoul was flat, Taipei added 0.4% and Jakarta rose 0.3%.

    The gains in Asia followed another positive lead from Wall Street, where the Dow enjoyed its ninth straight weekly gain – the longest streak since May 1995.

    “This is a sigh of relief,“ said Ben Emons, managing director for global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors. “Markets will still keep a level of caution, but this news is encouraging,“ he said.

    The upbeat sentiment lifted high-risk currencies, with the yuan hitting its highest level against the dollar since July, while South Korea’s won, the Australian dollar and the Indonesia rupiah were also well up.

    Forex traders will be closely watching speeches this week from top Federal Reserve officials – including chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance in front of lawmakers – hoping for clues about the bank’s monetary policy plans.

    Wall Street “will be looking for soothing comments about the future size of the balance sheet – the bigger the better – and insights into future rate hikes”, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.

  • Asian shares rise as Trump boosts US-China talks

    Asian shares rise as Trump boosts US-China talks

    Asian stocks climbed Wednesday as US President Donald Trump said he could extend the deadline for a trade deal with China, appearing to boost the prospects of an agreement. Trump said “things are going well” at preliminary talks in Beijing, where top economic officials will gather Thursday seeking an accord to stop sharp US tariff hikes that could damage the global economy.

    “If we’re close to a deal, where we think we can make a real deal … I could see myself letting that slide for a little while,” the US president said of his March 1 deadline.

    He added that he expects a meeting with counterpart Xi Jinping to happen “at some point”.

    The comments all improved market sentiment on the likelihood of a deal to prevent US tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports more than doubling next month.

    Washington is demanding changes from Beijing on what it says are unfair commercial practices.

    Tokyo added 1.5%, Hong Kong rose 0.4% and Shanghai gained 0.2% on the news, following Wall Street’s lead.

    However, some analysts struck a cautious tone, noting that much work needs to be completed before a framework agreement is in reach.

    “The rally in stocks has been based on hope rather than any concrete agreements overnight,” warned Oanda senior analyst Jeffrey Halley, predicting short-term volatility to come as headlines emerge from Beijing.

    Sydney shed 0.3%, with calls for a snap election amid political tensions over refugees adding to underwhelming corporate earnings and subdued metal prices.

    Nonetheless, renewed global investor confidence saw a movement away from the greenback, which has enjoyed a strong rally in the past week, to riskier currencies.

    The pound moved upwards closer to $1.29, despite no-deal Brexit fears as Prime Minister Theresa May was accused by the opposition of “running down the clock” and “playing chicken” with Brussels over talks.

    Trump’s suggestion that another chaotic US government shutdown was now unlikely following a deal struck in Congress over border security further fuelled risk appetite.

    The deal to offer nearly $1.4 billion for construction of a Mexico border wall, as well as other security measures, fell far short of Trump’s demands but has been presented as a workable compromise.

    “I don’t think you’re going to see a shutdown,” said the president.

    Elsewhere oil continued its climb after heavyweight Saudi Arabia slashed output and exports fell in crisis-hit Venezuela.

  • SE Asia Stocks: Most end lower, Vietnam hits near 2-month high

    SE Asia Stocks: Most end lower, Vietnam hits near 2-month high

    Most Southeast Asia stock markets closed lower on Tuesday while Vietnam rallied for the second straight session to its highest level in nearly two months. Washington and Beijing will commence high-level trade talks this week to negotiate an end to their bitter trade dispute. Despite positive responses from both sides, the sailing of two U.S. destroyers near the disputed South China Sea, and China’s subsequent anger over the move appeared detrimental to negotiations.

    The Indonesian index fell the most in the region, closing 1.1 percent lower in its worst session this year, weakened by a slump in financial and telecom stocks.

    The country’s biggest bank by market value, Bank Central Asia, shed 0.6 percent, whereas Telekom Indonesia lost 2.8 percent.

    The Philippine benchmark slipped 0.6 percent, dragged by consumer and industrial stocks. Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit narrowed in December as imports tumbled for the first time in a year.

    The stock index has outperformed other exchanges in the region so far in 2019, gaining about 7.3 percent.

    “We are mildly concerned about the surprise pullback in capital goods and raw materials. If this continues, this could show that recent aggressive tightening by the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) is starting to bite into investment appetite, hampering the nascent investment-driven growth story that we have witnessed of late,” ING said in a note.

    Meanwhile, Vietnam benchmark rose for the second straight session and ended up 1.2 percent at its highest level since Dec. 17, with real estate and consumer stocks leading the gains.

    Property developer Vingroup JSC scaled 4.9 percent, while Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp jumped 1.9 percent.

    Vietnam was also chosen to host this month’s summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart KimJong Un.

  • Reliance India buys additional stake in Future101, Genesis Colors

    Reliance India buys additional stake in Future101, Genesis Colors

    Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries has raised its stake in luxury apparel firms Future101 Design and Genesis Colors to strengthen its foothold in retail industry. Reliance Brands Ltd (RBL), a unit of RIL, “has acquired a further stake of 2.5 percent in Future101 Design Pvt Ltd on February 7, 2019, for a consideration of Rs 1.99 crore, taking its total stake in Future101 to 15 percent,” the company said in a regulatory filing.

    According to a report, also, Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd (RRVL), a separate subsidiary of the company, acquired a further stake of 9.44 percent in Genesis Colors Ltd (GCL), for Rs 45 crore taking its total stake in GCL to 29.07 percent on the enhanced capital.

    “Consequently, the stake of RBL in GCL shall be 43.66 percent and the aggregate equity shareholding of RRVL and RBL in GCL stands at 72.73 percent,” it said.

    Reliance said the acquisitions will help it to strengthen its foothold in the retail industry and support its long-term strategy to enhance its value in the industry.

    No regulatory approvals were required for the acquisition of shares and the investment does not fall within related party transaction, it added.

    The company had in July last year bought 12.5 percent stake in Future101, which is engaged in manufacturing, distribution, and sale of luxury apparels in India, for Rs 9.50 crore.

    Future101 reported an annual turnover of Rs 22.18 crore in 2017-18.

    In September 2018, RRVL had acquired a 16.31 percent stake in GCL, which owns fashion label Satya Paul, for Rs 34.80 crore. RRVL, through unit RBL, already held a 49.46 percent stake in GCL.

    That month, RRVL invested a total of Rs 57.03 crore in five other companies that sell branded readymade garments, bags, footwear, cosmetics and accessories.

    It bought a 2.07 percent stake in Genesis Luxury Fashion Pvt Ltd for Rs 3.37 crore, taking its holding in the company to 49.37 percent. Genesis Luxury Fashion distributes premium brands such as Jimmy Choo, Armani, Paul Smith and Bottega Veneta.

    It also bought 50 percent stake each in GLF Lifestyle Brands Pvt Ltd and Genesis La Mode Pvt Ltd for Rs 38.45 crore and Rs 10.57 crore, respectively.

    Besides, it acquired 50 percent each of GML India Fashion Pvt Ltd and GLB Body Care Pvt Ltd for Rs 4.48 crore and Rs 16 lakh, respectively.

  • Axiata’s share price falls 4.87% on RM2.16b tax bill

    Axiata’s share price falls 4.87% on RM2.16b tax bill

     Axiata Group Bhd’s share price fell 4.87% at mid-day after the group and its majority owned subsidiary Ncell Pte Ltd were ordered by the Nepal Supreme Court to pay capital gains tax of 61 billion Nepalese rupees (RM2.16 billion) for the Ncell buyout deal. At 12.30pm, Axiata was the eighth loser on Bursa Malaysia, trading at RM3.71 with 7.03 million shares changing hands.

    The Himalayan Times yesterday reported that Axiata had been hit with the tax bill, which excludes late fees and fines, for its US$1.36 billion purchase of Reynolds Holdings Ltd, which has 80% stake in Ncell, in 2015.

    The publication cited the Nepalese Large Taxpayers Office chief as saying it would only initiate the process of collecting the tax amount once it gets a copy of the tax verdict.

  • Axiata slides 5% in early morning trade on tax bill

    Axiata slides 5% in early morning trade on tax bill

    Axiata Group Bhd saw some selling pressure in early morning trade on news that it had been hit with a capital gains tax bill of RM2.16bil by the Nepalese Supreme Court. The stock lost as much as 20 sen or 5.1% in early morning trading on Friday to a low of RM3.70. At 9.30am, the counter was down 14 sen or 3.59% to RM3.76 a share on the back of 1.57 million shares traded.

    Analysts said the news report by the Himalayan Times yesterday came as a negative surprise, which may impact the group’s FY19E earnings forecasts.

    Kenanga research made no changes to its FY18-19E earnings forecast pending its upcoming 4Q18 results but lowered its target price to RM4.50 from RM4.60 previously.

    “All in, we are keeping our Outperform call for now in view of its relatively decent valuation (Forward EV/EBITDA of 7.2x vs. peers of 12-13x) coupled with a stronger Celcom and earnings recovery at XL.

    “Bargain-hunting opportunity could potentially arise on any share price weakness due to the recent hiccup. We advocate investors to start accumulating the share at c.RM3.70 level,” it said.

    PublicInvest research said its core earnings forecasts remain unchanged but headline profit could see a sharp decline if Axiata paid the capital gains tax in FY19F.

    “Although our core earnings forecasts and Neutral call remain unchanged, we believe share price would react negatively to this news due to uncertainties and the potential downside to headline profit,” it said.

    It maintained its target price at RM3.85.

    In its response to news reports, Axiata said in a statement that it is yet to receive the judgment and order of the Supreme Court and is yet to receive any details of the order.

    “Ncell, Reynolds, and Axiata UK were given the full clearance by the Large Tax Payers Office of Nepal [LTPO] of its obligations to withhold any CGT payment on behalf of the Seller in relation to the Transaction via the letter from LTPO dated 4 June 2017, following the full and final payment made by Ncell, albeit under protest on the basis that CGT is not applicable on offshore transactions and even if applicable, any shortfall on payment is the responsibility of the Seller,” it said.

    The group said it would provide further updates upon receiving the order of the Supreme Court.

     

  • Foreign buying on Bursa slows to RM146.8m last week

    Foreign buying on Bursa slows to RM146.8m last week

    Foreign funds snapped up RM146.8 million net of local equities last week during the holiday-shortened week. “Foreign funds resumed their entry into stocks listed on Bursa for the fourth consecutive week albeit at a slower pace compared to the preceding week,“ MIDF Research said in its weekly fund flow report.

    It said last Monday saw a moderate net inflow of foreign funds worth RM37.3 million, extending the daily buying streak to nine days. However, this foreign buying spree came to an end on the next day as international funds sold RM12.8 million net, coinciding with the local bourse’s 0.4% slide to settle at 1,690 points.

    Risk appetite was weak on Tuesday following the overnight 2.8% slump in Brent crude oil price combined with the anticipation ahead of the Sino-US trade negotiations.

    Notwithstanding this, offshore investors returned to Bursa on Wednesday at a tune of RM65.1 million net, the highest foreign net inflow during the week.

    The catalyst responsible for the boost of foreign net inflows on that day was 0.4% increase in Brent crude oil price as US President Donald Trump’s administration slaps sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company while Saudi Arabia had a deeper output cuts in January than initially pledged.

    The momentum of foreign net inflows continued on the last trading day of the week as foreign investors bought RM57.2 million net.

    “We opine that the sentiment was partially supported by the Malaysia’s exports in 2018 which grew by 6.7% to reach almost RM1 trillion. Meanwhile, the FBM KLCI was little changed, declining by less than 1% on Thursday ahead of the long weekend and festive season.”

    The month of January 2019 saw a foreign net inflow of RM1.03 billion or US$249.3 million, the first monthly net inflow since September last year.

    “In comparison with the three other Asean markets we monitor, Malaysia has the second lowest foreign net inflow while Indonesia leads,“ said MIDF.

    Foreign investors were the only group which saw a weekly increase in average daily traded value, jumping by 21.0% to remain above RM1 billion for the second week running.

  • Asia stocks quiet, dollar firm after upbeat US job data

    Asia stocks quiet, dollar firm after upbeat US job data

    Asia stocks hovered near four-month highs on Monday after a mixed performance on Wall Street at the close of last week, while the dollar firmed against the yen following strong US job and manufacturing data. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was almost flat. It had scaled a four-month peak on Friday along with a surge in its global peers.

    Trade was subdued with many of the region’s markets closed for the Lunar New Year. China’s financial markets are closed all week, while those in South Korea are shut until Thursday.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which is trading for only half a day, edged up 0.2%.

    Japan’s Nikkei added 0.5%.

    On Wall Street on Friday optimism from a surge in January US job growth was offset by a weaker-than-expected outlook from Amazon.com Inc that battered retail stocks. The Dow nudged up 0.26% while the Nasdaq shed 0.25%.

    “Key points for the markets this week will be how the remaining US corporate earnings releases turn out, and whether they are in line with recent upbeat data,” said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

    “While corporate earnings and fundamentals remain key, political developments, notably the US-China trade situation, remain potential risk factors,” he said.

    A US Labor Department report on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls jumped by a stronger-than-forecast 304,000 jobs last month, the largest gain since February 2018.

    That report, along with better-than-expected ISM manufacturing activity numbers for January, pointed to underlying strength in the world’s biggest economy.

    “After last week’s risk appetite revival, the data pulse and the tone of Fed speakers will be important. For the Goldilocks market to continue, we need to find a delicate balance between improving data and still-neutral central banks,” strategists at ANZ wrote.

    Global equity markets performed strongly last week after the Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signalling a potential end to its tightening cycle.

    Friday’s robust economic data triggered a sharp rebound in US Treasury yields, in turn lifting the dollar.

    On Monday, the US currency was a shade higher at 109.555 yen after advancing 0.6% on Friday.

    The euro was little changed at $1.1456 after getting pulled back from a high of $1.1488 on Friday.

    The Australian dollar was mostly steady at $0.7244 after slipping 0.4% the previous session.

    The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 2.686% after climbing nearly 6 basis points on Friday to pull away from a four-week low of 2.619% earlier last week.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil futures extended Friday’s rally and were last up 0.3% at $55.42 per barrel.

    On Friday, WTI futures had rallied 2.7% on the upbeat US job report, signs that Washington’s sanctions on Venezuelan exports have helped tighten supply and data showing US drillers cut the number of oil rigs.

  • Bursa Malaysia’s Q4 earnings fall 6.2% to RM51.9m

    Bursa Malaysia’s Q4 earnings fall 6.2% to RM51.9m

    Bursa Malaysia Bhd’s net profit in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2018 (Q4FY18) was down by 6.2% to RM51.9 million, from RM55.27 million a year ago, mainly due to lower contribution from the securities segment.

    Revenue for the quarter declined 8.7% to RM128.9 million, compared with RM141.2 million in the previous corresponding quarter.

    The exchange has approved a second interim dividend of 11.6 sen per share for FY18, amounting to about RM93.7 million which is payable on Feb 28, 2019. With that, the total dividend (including special dividend) declared for the year amounts to 33.6 sen per share.

    Bursa’s full-year net profit was slightly up by 0.4% to RM224.04 million, from RM223.04 million a year ago, while revenue decreased by 1.2% to RM550 million, against RM556.8 million previously.

    For the year under review, securities market trading revenue increased 2.4% to RM265.8 million from RM259.6 million in FY17, mainly due to higher average daily trading value (ADV) for securities market’s on-market trades (OMT) in FY18.

    However, non-trading revenue saw a marginal decrease of 0.1% to RM165.9 million from RM166.1 million in FY17 due to lower listing and issuer services revenue.

    Bursa CEO Datuk Seri Tajuddin Atan said despite market volatility and challenging global economic environment, the exchange’s financial performance remained resilient.

    “Throughout the year, to create a more facilitative environment, we continued implementing initiatives to further enhance the vibrancy and liquidity of the market,” he added.

    At 2.35pm, Bursa’s share price was trading 7 sen or 0.9% lower at RM7.32 on 751,900 shares done.

  • Asia shares slip as China’s Huawei in legal hot water; focus on Sino-US talks

    Asia shares slip as China’s Huawei in legal hot water; focus on Sino-US talks

    Asian shares stumbled on Tuesday and the dollar hovered near two-week lows as prospects for a long-awaited Sino-US trade deal was dealt another blow after the United States levelled sweeping criminal charges against China’s telecom giant Huawei. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan got off to a shaky start with losses accelerating as other regional markets opened.

    Australia and New Zealand led the losses, with their benchmark indices down 0.7% each while South Korea’s KOSPI was off 0.3%. Chinese shares opened in the red too, with the blue-chip index down 0.2%.

    Japan’s Nikkei slid about 1%. US stock futures also lost ground following from a torrid overnight session on Wall Street, with E-Minis for the S&P 500 down 0.4%.

    Investor sentiment, already shaken by pessimism over global growth, took another hit after the US Justice Department unsealed indictments against China’s top telecom equipment maker, Huawei, accusing it of bank and wire fraud to evade Iran sanctions and conspiring to steal trade secrets from T-Mobile US Inc.

    The jolt to Huawei could undermine prospects for a trade deal between the economic giants as markets nervously await a fresh round of trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He set to meet US officials on Wednesday and Thursday.

    Further complicating matters, China triggered the legal process on Monday for the World Trade Organization to hear Beijing’s challenge to US tariffs, and berated the United States for blocking the appointment of judges who could rule on it.

    Souring US-China relations roiled global markets for much of last year, and have kept investors on the back foot this month. The trade war’s broadening impact on world growth is one reason the US Federal Reserve has signalled it will be patient on policy after raising rates four times in 2018.

    Overnight, markets got a reminder of the potentially damaging economic impact of the Sino-US trade war as Wall Street stocks were hit by profit warnings.

    The losses came as shares of Caterpillar and Nvidia Corp nosedived after the two manufacturers joined a growing list of companies cautioning about the crippling effects of softening Chinese demand.

    Caterpillar plunged more than 9% for its worst single-day drop since August 2011 while chipmaker Nvidia slid 13.8%.

    “Both companies are seen as industry bellwethers and their disappointing results provide further evidence that this time China’s slowdown is for real,” said Rodrigo Catril, Sydney-based strategist at National Australia Bank.

    The downbeat global growth impulse mean investors will look for further confirmation the Fed will pause its rate-hike cycle at a two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday.

    Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow and S&P 500 each closed down 0.8% and the Nasdaq was off more than 1%.

    WARNING BELLS

    Worryingly, earnings at China’s industrial firms too shrank in December, pointing to more troubles for the country’s vast manufacturing sector already struggling with a decline in orders, job layoffs and factory closures.

    Slowdown fears slugged the US dollar which faltered to its lowest in two weeks on Monday. The dollar’s index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was last at 95.758.

    Against the safe haven Japanese yen, the dollar was down at 109.17, on track for a third straight session of losses.

    Markets will have more catalysts this week with over a 100 of the S&P500 companies reporting results, including Amazon, Apple and Facebook.

    Many economists, including the International Monetary Fund, have cut their forecasts for global growth this year citing the US-China trade war.

    “Slowdown is feeding into some acute areas of economic unease,” US investment bank Citi said in a note, citing recent disappointing factory output data out of Europe and China.

    “In some respects, markets seem to have reacted more to recent negative changes in economic data than at other points in recent decades,” it added, while noting investors are now pricing in a 1% contraction in global earnings per share (EPS) this year.

    “This would be the worst year-on-year percentage change in EPS since 2015” even though economic growth is seen much higher this year than in 2015.

    Elsewhere, Sterling dithered against the dollar ahead of voting in Britain’s parliament on Tuesday that aims to break the Brexit deadlock. It was last at $1.3148

    Oil bounced after hefty overnight losses. US crude was last up 16 cents at $52.15 a barrel while Brent gained 18 cents to $60.11.

    US gold futures hovered near a seven-month high around $1,302.3 per ounce. Spot gold was last at 1,303.3 after breaking above a key psychological barrier of $1,300 an ounce on Friday.

  • Zen Group Thailand prepares to go public

    Zen Group Thailand prepares to go public

    Thailand’s Zen Group is planning to list an IPO to fund expansion of its restaurant chains. With designs to become the leader in Thailand’s food service industry, the company plans to sell 75 million shares in the firm. The proceeds are expected to fund new restaurants in both domestic and international markets, as well as improving existing venues and increasing efficiency.

    While the Japanese-themed chain Zen is the group’s best-known chain, it also operates a string of Thai-branded restaurants including Tummour and Khiang, along with Japanese brands Aka, Musha, On the Table, Vietnamese chain IWO Pho and a Singaporean-style Granny’s Chicken Rice.

    “This year, we plan to add 36 of our owned branches and 87 franchise branches, and in 2020, we plan to expand by a further 50 of our owned branches and 175 franchise branches”, said CEO Boonyong Tansakul.

    The group expects its total revenue to reach THB10 billion (US$315.55 million) by 2022.

    “In the past two years, the group has invested in the management system within the organisation, including increasing personnel and investing in information systems to support business expansion both domestically and internationally”, said Tansakul.

    “This has led to increased administrative expenses, but the result is that at present the group stands ready to expand business and can use the support base that it had prepared beforehand to fully support growth”.

  • Confidence Returns to Indonesia’s Financial Markets

    Confidence Returns to Indonesia’s Financial Markets

    After a steep correction last year and pressure on the rupiah, Indonesia expects stability to return to its financial markets this year as foreign capital starts flowing back into the domestic market. The first bond offerings of the year last week were more than three times oversubscribed, with interest mainly coming from foreign investors, who also bought more local stocks than what they sold over the past two weeks, reversing a net selling trend that persisted throughout last year, according to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) data.

    For Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo, the return of foreign capital inflows came as no surprise. The central bank has been aggressive in raising its benchmark interest rate – the seven-day reverse repo rate – which was increased by 175 basis points to 6 percent over the past nine months in response to tightening by the United States Federal Reserve.

    As it now seems more likely that the US central bank may raise the federal funds rate only twice this year instead of three times, Indonesia’s financial markets have become more attractive to foreign investors as a destination to park their funds.

    “The US dollar is not king anymore this year,” Perry said during a meeting with editors of the country’s largest media groups on Monday.

    Pressure on the rupiah has also eased. The currency currently trades at 14,031 to the greenback, having appreciated 8 percent from its weakest level of 15,253 four months ago, Bank Indonesia data showed.

    Bank Indonesia took measures in concert with the central banks of Malaysia and Thailand on Jan. 2 to reduce dependency on the dollar in bilateral trade. The arrangement will involve Indonesian trade with the two countries, which amounts to about $33 billion per year, being settled in the countries’ respective currencies, instead of the US dollar.

    Indonesia’s current-account deficit, the main culprit for the weakness in its currency, is expected to narrow to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared with 3 percent last year.

    American multinational investment bank Morgan Stanley said lower oil prices should help Indonesia lower its current-account deficit.

    “With Brent down 36 percent from its September highs, we should see some relief on the trade balance, which has been weighing on the current account and, in turn, [become] a drag on confidence in equities and performance,” analysts Sean Gardiner and Aarti Shah wrote in a recent note to clients.

    They said oil prices, with the combined effects of the election stimulus, recovering loan growth, dovish monetary policy and rising company earnings have cemented Morgan Stanley’s bullish views on Indonesian stocks.

    The New York-based bank’s top picks include conglomerate Astra International, state-owned gas utility company Perusahaan Gas Negara, state-owned telecommunications company Telkom Indonesia, and lenders Bank Central Asia and Bank Mandiri.

    Bank Indonesia is confident that the country’s economy may grow by between 5.0 percent and 5.4 percent this year, compared with an estimated 5.2 percent last year. Household consumption is also expected to expand by between 5.1 percent and 5.5 percent and investment by between 6.5 percent and 6.9 percent, the central bank governor said.

    Perry said bank loans will maintain their expansive pace of 12 percent this year, in line with an increase of between 8 percent and 10 percent in third-party funds.

    However, one source of concern this year is lower commodity prices, which will affect Indonesia’s export earnings. Perry said the country should therefore increase its exports of manufactured goods, seek new markets for its products and encourage tourism.

    He said Bank Indonesia is comfortable with its current policy and that it can afford to maintain its benchmark rate until March.

    “We are optimistic that 2019 will be better than 2018,” Perry said.

  • Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Asian stocks rise again on US-China trade talks optimism

    Increasing optimism that China and the United States will be able to hammer out a deal to help ease their trade war provided the impetus for more gains across Asian markets today. After taking a battering in December and suffering a shaky start to 2019, confidence is slowly returning to equity trading floors, though dealers remain on edge. Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell provided the platform for a rally last week when he said the central bank had no “preset” plan for lifting interest rates and was “listening” to markets, signalling that the pace of hikes could slow this year.

    Fear of higher borrowing rates was a major cause of last year’s stocks losses.

    The mood among dealers held this week as officials from China and the US hunkered down for trade negotiations in Beijing that have extended into a third day. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday described them as going “very well”.

    Bloomberg also reported White House sources as saying Trump is keen to get a deal done in order to boost stock markets, which he regards as a gauge of his success.

    And The Wall Street Journal said the two were moving in the right direction, with China ready to buy more US goods and services, while further talks at cabinet level were being lined up next week.

    The progress in talks “is fuelling investor optimism suggesting there might be a light at the end of the trade war tumultuous tunnel”, said Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trade at OANDA.

    Hong Kong rose 2.3% – a fourth straight gain that has seen the index put on around 5% – and Shanghai ended up 0.75%, while Tokyo closed 1.15% higher. Sydney jumped 1% with Singapore, while Taipei and Wellington were each more than 1% higher. Manila surged more than 2% and there were also gains in Mumbai and Jakarta.

    Seoul added 2% as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Beijing with speculation swirling that he will meet Trump for a second summit later this year.

    The gains also come after a strong reading on US jobs creation Friday, which soothed worries that the American economy was slowing down.

    “When the dust settles, if it ever does, the fear of recession will prove to be premature,“ Bob Doll, an analyst at Nuveen Asset Management said.

    “We will have growth, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace and we will have… earnings, yes, slowed from the 2018 pace, but acceptable for investors and that will allow equity markets to move higher.”

  • US-China talks on bilateral trade to impact Malaysia’s equity

    US-China talks on bilateral trade to impact Malaysia’s equity

    The discussion between the US and China with respect to their bilateral trade would likely be the highlight for the equity market next week, says an economist. It could also be a source of market instability, said Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid. He said market players are currently worried about the turbulence across global markets.

    “Generally businesses have become more risk-averse as some countries especially China and Asean nations had recorded below the 50-point demarcation line in their manufacturing index.

    “In fact, the US ISM manufacturing index has shown a similar trend, falling by 5.2 points to 54.1 in December 2018.

    “Naturally, businesses would reduce their capital expenditure and labour hiring as they would become wary of demand prospects, so we can expect equity markets to remain weak in the near term,” he said.

    Mohd Afzanizam said the current support level is at 1,653.

    The FBMKLCI might test this level should the discussion not pan out favourably, he added.

    For the holiday-shortened week, the FBM KLCI was traded mostly lower, mainly affected by external factors such as US political uncertainties, mounting concerns over poor global growth and the talks on the potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

    The local bourse and its subsidiaries were closed on Tuesday for the New Year holiday.

    On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the benchmark FBM KLCI settled 22.29 points weaker at 1,669.78.

    The FBM Emas Index depreciated 124.28 points to 11,413.02, the FBMT100 Index decreased 131.24 points to 11,323.34, the FBM 70 declined 67.72 points to 13,023.80, the FBM Emas Syariah Index erased 152.51 points to 11,356.91 but the FBM Ace edged up 34.23 points to 4,294.43.

    Sector-wise, the Finance Index lost 99.90 points to 17,241.79, the Industrial Products and Services Index eased 1.18 points to 165.63, while the Plantation Index was 16.84 points weaker at 6,880.90.

    Comparing Friday-to-Friday, the weekly turnover rose to 7.22 billion units worth RM4.79 billion from 5.70 billion units worth RM4.15 billion.

    Main Market volume increased to 5.17 billion units valued at RM4.37 billion versus 4.16 billion shares valued at RM3.85 billion.

    Warrants turnover advanced to 1.23 billion units worth RM282.94 million compared with 948.80 million units worth RM202.97 million.

    The ACE Market volume appreciated to 719.60 billion shares valued at RM127.20 million against 556.26 million shares valued at RM90.05 million.