Author: Mei Ling Tan

Billionaire Chinese trader, Bian Ximing, formerly famous for leveraging the gold rally, has now focused his attention on the dramatic ascent of silver. He has placed a significant bet on a price plunge, an investment currently worth almost $300 million.

A Pivot from Gold to Silver

Bian Ximing, a typically discreet individual who spends much of his time in Gibraltar, amassed nearly $3 billion from his bullish ventures in Shanghai Futures Exchange gold contracts, dating back to the start of 2022. He has since shifted his focus to silver, holding the exchange’s largest net short position, according to available data.

However, this substantial short position is not without its risks, and Bian has been compelled to exit some trades at a loss due to the unstable silver price movements. His current short position is equivalent to approximately 450 tons of silver, or around 30,000 contracts.

The notable drop in the value of the metal from the previous week has resulted in a potential gain of around CNY2 billion ($288 million). After factoring in previous losses, Bian is poised to make a net profit of about CNY1 billion.

Fluctuating Silver Prices

On February 5, silver reached a six-week low but has since rebounded to approximately $81.52 per ounce. This is around 43% lower than the historic high of $116.85 recorded at the end of January.

Data from the exchange reveals that Bian, via his brokerage, Zhongcai Futures Co., began to significantly increase his silver short positions in the last week of January. Although the Shanghai Futures Exchange does not disclose the individuals behind brokerage accounts, sources suggest that Bian’s trades, in addition to the products he directly manages for a select group of clients, comprise the majority of Zhongcai’s precious metals exposure.

Market Reaction and Bian’s History

This shift in strategy from Bian takes place as recent severe price fluctuations force market players to reconsider their approach to precious metals. The rally of silver is increasingly seen as industry-led and primarily fueled by speculative positioning rather than fundamental economic factors.

Bian first achieved prominence in China’s futures markets through aggressive bullish gold trades that began about four years ago. He is part of a small, elite group of high-profile commodities traders who have influenced the market. Compared to many of his peers, he is recognized for his privacy and the devoted online following attracted by his investment philosophy.

Bian began amassing a long silver position in August of last year, a move that generated profits of over CNY1.3 billion, based on estimates from exchange data. However, by November, he started changing course, aiming to predict the peak of the rally with gradual position adjustments, which at times led to trading losses.

Questions & Answers

What is Bian Ximing’s current position in silver?
Bian Ximing currently holds a short position equivalent to roughly 450 tons of silver, or approximately 30,000 contracts.

How has the silver market fluctuated recently?
Silver dipped to a six-week low on February 5 but has since recovered to around $81.52 per ounce, about 43% lower than its historic high of $116.85 at the end of January.

What is Bian Ximing’s investment history with precious metals?
Bian Ximing first rose to prominence through aggressive bullish trades in gold about four years ago. In August of the previous year, he started to accumulate a long position in silver, yielding profits of over CNY1.3 billion.