China holds a narrow lead in overall 5G readiness ahead of South Korea and the United States, according to Analysys Mason. In a separate report, Recon Analytics said US 4G leadership drove significant economic benefits suggesting the need for the US to maintain its global leadership in the burgeoning new communication standard.
In evaluating the current status of the global race to 5G, Analysys Mason studied 5G spectrum and infrastructure policies as well the commercial industry plans of ten countries and ranked these in terms of their 5G readiness.
Establishing 5G leaders
At the top of the pole is China, followed by South Korea, the United States and Japan. China’s narrow lead is due to a combination of both proactive government policies and industry momentum. The United States is hanging on to its position mostly on the back of significant investments in next-generation networks by the country’s wireless operators.
All major Chinese providers have committed to specific launch dates and the government has committed to at least 100MHz of mid-band spectrum and 2000MHz of high-band spectrum for each wireless provider.
Countries around the world are moving quickly to make spectrum available for 5G. This year alone, the UK, Spain, and Italy are all holding 5G spectrum auctions.
Meredith Attwell Baker, CTIA president and CEO noted that “today’s research highlights the importance of policymaker action in 2018 to reform local zoning rules and unlock access to mid-band spectrum as part of a broader spectrum pipeline plan. I’m optimistic we will leapfrog China because key leaders in the Administration, on Capitol Hill, and at the FCC are focused on the reforms needed to win the race.”
At the end of 2018, the USA will rank sixth out of the 10 countries in mid-band (3–GHz to 24-GHz) spectrum availability, a critical band for 5G. The USA joins Russia and Canada as the only countries currently without announced plans to allocate mid-band spectrum on an exclusive basis to mobile by the end of 2020.
Kester Mann, principal analyst covering operators at CCS Insight, corroborated Baker’s analysis, adding that “the industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn’t stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks. Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability”.
Countries like the UK and regions like the European Union are taking significant steps to modernize infrastructure rules to facilitate the deployment of 5G networks.
“When countries lose global leadership in a generation of wireless, jobs are shed and technology innovation gets exported overseas,” Recon Analytics founder Roger Entner said.
“Conversely, leading the world in wireless brings significant economic benefits, as the USA has seen with its 4G leadership. These are the serious stakes that face American policymakers in the escalating global race to 5G.”
Losing wireless leadership had long-term negative effects on Japan and Europe, contributing to job losses and the contraction of their domestic wireless industries.
Opportunity
CCS Insight’s forecast estimates total global 5G connections in 2020 at almost 60 million, rising more than 50% against October 2017 estimates, and presenting a stronger outlook for 2021 at 280 million connections — a 25% improvement. CCS Insight still expects the 1 billion mark to be breached in mid-2023, and its projection for 2025 has inched up to 2.7 billion.
