LVMH has lost more than $167 billion in market value this year as Chinese consumers pull back from expensive handbags, cutting group valuation by more than half from its peak above $500 billion.
The selloff exposes the conglomerate’s heavy concentration in a single division and a single region, with Asia excluding Japan generating 35 percent of Fashion and Leather Goods revenue in 2025.
Fashion and Leather Goods accounts for roughly three-quarters of recurring operating profit across LVMH’s 75 brands. UBS estimates the flagship Louis Vuitton label alone generates more than half of divisional earnings. Chinese shoppers account for nearly a third of all fashion and leather sales, leaving group performance tightly bound to domestic sentiment in mainland China.
Bernard Arnault, the 77-year-old chairman and chief executive whose family controls 65 percent of voting rights through Agache, faces a market where the pricing power of the past five years has stalled. Average luxury prices rose 54 percent between late 2019 and September 2024, according to HSBC estimates. While that strategy lifted group revenue from €54 billion in 2019 to €86 billion in 2023, shoppers in Asia are no longer absorbing further price increases for coated canvas and leather.
Mainland luxury market contracts for two straight years
China’s personal luxury goods market shrank between 18 percent and 20 percent in 2024, followed by an additional decline of 3 percent to 5 percent in 2025, according to Bain estimates. Leather goods suffered the steepest drops, falling between 8 percent and 11 percent last year. Real estate weakness and employment concerns have eroded consumer confidence, while local fashion labels have gained market share by emphasizing cultural relevance.
Consumer budgets are shifting rather than disappearing entirely. A 2026 survey by Oliver Wyman found 37 percent of affluent Chinese consumers plan to increase spending on prestige beauty, compared with just 4 percent planning higher spending on leather goods. L’Oréal recorded 10 percent revenue growth for its Luxe division in China during its latest reported quarter, while Compagnie Financière Richemont reported a 14 percent sales rise at constant currency for jewellery brands Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels in the year to March.
Rivals test price cuts while Vuitton protects margins
Rival luxury groups are responding with aggressive regional pricing adjustments. Gucci reduced prices by 20 percent to 30 percent across several handbag collections to recruit entry-level customers, while Chanel rolled out smooth-leather accessories positioned below its signature quilted lines. Chanel lifted first-half comparable sales by about 16 percent following the adjustments.
LVMH has resisted broad price reductions, choosing instead to invest in store upgrades and creative turnover at Dior and Loro Piana. Bernstein calculations indicate a hypothetical €1,350 entry-level Vuitton bag could generate €440 million in incremental revenue and boost divisional unit volume by 5 percent, even if average selling prices drop 1.8 percent. For now, the group relies on North America to offset Asian weakness, with Jefferies forecasting 5 percent growth in US fashion sales against a 10 percent contraction across its Chinese customer base in the third quarter.
Local missteps add friction in mainland malls
Brand perception in China has faced additional scrutiny. A trademark dispute in which Louis Vuitton successfully sued Shenzhen-based drinks chain Molly Tea over a floral pattern triggered public backlash from state media and social network users, who argued the design stemmed from traditional Chinese heritage. Jefferies reported the controversy caused a measurable drag on Vuitton’s mainland store sales.
Direct acquisitions of Western luxury houses offer little help because LVMH’s current revenue base is too large for mid-sized European brands to move group earnings. Competitors have turned to minority equity investments in local players: Kering took a minority holding in Shanghai-based ICICLE parent ICCF, while L’Oréal backed domestic Chinese fragrance companies To Summer and Documents to tap shifting consumer taste.
Earnings multiple resets to five-year lows
The structural shift follows five years of rapid expansion that ended late in 2024, when LVMH posted its first quarterly revenue contraction since 2020. Divisional sales in Fashion and Leather Goods dropped 1 percent in 2024 and slipped another 5 percent in 2025, breaking an operating margin run that had peaked at 26.5 percent.
Equity markets have adjusted valuations accordingly. LVMH trades at roughly 16 times forward earnings, down from 24 times at the start of the year, as institutional investors wait for third-quarter earnings figures to determine whether Chinese cluster sales can stabilize before year-end.
