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Tag: energy

  • Vietnam’s wind power tariffs attractive, but concern rises

    Vietnam’s wind power tariffs attractive, but concern rises

    Vietnam’s new feed-in tariffs are attracting great interest in wind power, but investors are concerned about grid connection and purchase agreements. The new feed-in tariffs (FIT) are expected to be attractive to domestic and foreign investors, Tommaso Rovatti Studihard, South East Asia sales director for wind power developer Vestas Asia Pacific said.

    The government recently approved tariff revisions under Decision 39 on support mechanisms for the development of wind power.

    The decision, effective from November 1 this year, raises the tariffs from 7.8 US cents per kWh to 8.5 US cents for onshore and 9.8 US cents for offshore generation respectively.

    “Electricity demand will grow at an estimated 8 – 10 percent a year from now to 2030. This represents realistic opportunities for investors,” Studihard said.

    Conjecturing that the national plan envisages adding 1,000 MW of wind power by 2020 and 6,000 MW by 2030, he said the targets are achievable.

    “Vestas is excited about the Vietnamese market, probably this is the most promising market in the Asian region with very good wind resources,” he said.

    Vestas has so far put three wind power projects into operation in Vietnam and plans to have another project come online by 2019 and “do a lot more in the future.”

    Studihard noted that over the next three to five years there are huge opportunities in Vietnam to have some gigawatts of wind power, but the bankability of the power purchase agreement (PPA) remains an issue with many investors, especially international investors, and banks finding it a little difficult to be comfortable with.

    There are no clear termination and force majeure clauses in the PPA, which hinders the attraction of foreign investment, especially from banks and credit institutions, he explained.

    “One more problem is Vietnam’s weak grid capacity, which would become a bottleneck for developing wind and other renewables. The grid needs to be upgraded to tap the great potential Vietnam has for offerable, sustainable and reliable wind power.”

    Bui Van Thinh, CEO of the Thuan Binh Wind Power JSC (TBW), said having gained success in developing the 24MW Phu Lac wind power project in the central province of Binh Thuan, TBW is completing procedures to start construction of a 30MW wind power project in neighboring Ninh Thuan Province.

    But the weak grid capacity is the biggest challenge to expanding renewables like wind and solar power, he said.

    The transmission line near Phu Lac site could handle 100MW, compatible with two 50MW wind power projects.

    Overload capacity is imminent once a solar power project connects with the transmission line, Thinh noted, citing the concerning fact that there are eight solar power projects in the locality approved to connect with the grid.

    “The government should instruct the state-run Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) to install transmission lines to cope with the renewable power projects across the country, especially those in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan.”

    Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan are central provinces that have the greatest potential for renewable energy in the country.

    While 2,000 MW of solar power are proposed to be generated in Ninh Thuan, the local transmission line can only handle a few hundred megawatts. Thus, 110 kV or 220 kV transmission lines need to be installed before pushing the power to the 500kV transmission line and sending it to Ho Chi Minh City or Danang City, Thinh added.

    Nguyen Van Thanh, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority, said demand for energy, wind power in particular, has been growing rapidly.

    The need for ensuring energy security but also sustainable development has changed Vietnam from an energy seller to buyer, with the country’s dependence on imported energy sources also rising, he said.

    Vietnam also faces a shortage of primary energy, with coal imports posing many risks related to supply, price and transportation, he noted.

    “Given that, efficient exploitation of new and renewable sources would play a key role in the country’s socio-economic development, energy security and sustainable development.

    “The country is working diligently to draft policies for the efficient and economical use of energy, diversification of energy sources and increasing application of new and eco-friendly technologies,” Thanh added.

    Under the revised Power Development Plan VII, power stations in the country are expected to generate a total of 60,000 MW by 2020. Of these, coal-fired stations would make the largest proportion of 42.7 percent, followed by hydropower (30.1 percent), gas-fired plants (14.9 percent) and renewable energy sources (9.9 percent).

    By 2030, the total capacity would soar to 129,500 MW, with coal and gas-fired plants accounting for 42.6 percent and 14.7 percent respectively, similar to the figures set for 2020. But the ratio of renewable energy sources is set to double to 21 percent by then.

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  • Vietnam must avoid power cuts next year: PM

    Vietnam must avoid power cuts next year: PM

    Prime Minister Vietnam Nguyen Xuan Phuc has ordered agencies to ensure that the country won’t suffer power shortages in 2019. The Prime Minister has communicated this to relevant agencies several times, Mai Tien Dung, Minister and Chairman of the Government Office, said at the government’s regular press conference on Monday.

    The communiqués have instructed the agencies to ensure that there’s no electricity shortage for both industrial and domestic uses, emphasizing they would be held responsible for failures, Dung said.

    The PM has also tasked relevant agencies with definitively resolving the ongoing issue of coal shortage for thermal power plants, which Vietnam Electricity (EVN) has warned could lead to power cuts early next year.

    The national power utility said in a recent report to Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung that the country will need over 54 million tons of coal for electricity production next year, of which 43.4 million tons will come from domestic production and 10.68 million tons will be imported.

    But the country’s only two suppliers, Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Corporation (Vinacomin) and the North-Eastern Company (NECO) under the Ministry of Defense, will only be able to produce 37.21 million tons of coal next year, 6.19 million tons lower than estimated demand, EVN said.

    Speaking at the press conference, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai said a total of four different electricity supply plans have been drafted, all of which designed to ensure there would be no power shortages next year.

    However, in certain cases, Vietnam would still need to produce 2-7 billion kWh of electricity from expensive oil-powered generators.

    “If we want to have enough electricity then we must increase the production of electricity by oil, which would be more expensive,” he said, asking consumers to make plans to save electricity.

    Regarding the issue of coal shortage, Hai asserted that Vinacomin and NECO have both supplied enough coal for thermal power plants as committed.

    “The two major coal suppliers have tried their best. If coal from domestic sources is not enough to supply [thermal power plants] then we will import more,” he said.

    The deputy minister also said a scenario for regulating electricity prices next year would be reported to the government later this month.

    “The electricity price for next year is being carefully considered and the scenario is being built in accordance with regulations, including factoring in the effect on inflation,” he said.

    Vietnam currently relies largely on hydropower and thermal power plants for its electricity needs. However, its hydropower potential is almost fully exploited and its oil and gas reserves are running low.

    Thermal energy is expected to account for over 48 percent of the country’s power production next year.

    Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, has been struggling to develop its energy industry, and its heavy reliance on non renewable sources could prove problematic in the future, experts say.

    World Bank country director for Vietnam Ousmane Dione said at a recent forum that Vietnam will need to raise up $150 billion by 2030 to develop its energy sector; that electricity demand in the country will grow by about 8 percent a year for the next decade.

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  • Vietnam to experience power cuts early 2019

    Vietnam to experience power cuts early 2019

    The ongoing coal shortage could lead to power cuts in Vietnam early next year, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) has warned. The national power utility said in a recent report to Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung that the country will need over 54 million tons of coal for electricity production next year, of which 43.4 million tons will come from domestic production and 10.68 million tons will be imported.

    But the country’s only two suppliers, Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Corporation (Vinacomin) and the North-Eastern Company (NECO) under the Ministry of Defense, will only be able to produce 37.21 million tons of coal next year, 6.19 million tons lower than estimated demand, EVN said.

    “The lack of coal will lead to a shutdown of thermal power plants, seriously affecting the national power grid and EVN might have to cut electricity in the first months of 2019,” it added.

    EVN estimated that power generation will be reduced by 2,300 MW, which is the average electricity consumption of 13 central provinces.

    EVN said that Vinacomin and NECO had promised to provide enough coal for plants this year, but the amount provided by Vinacomin until this month was 690,000 tons lower than contracted.

    The power utility estimates that the country will need 2.55 million tons of coal of electricity in December, but the two coal producers plan to deliver only 2.05 million tons, which is 500,000 tons short.

    Due to the coal shortage, the Quang Ninh Thermal Power Company has shut down two out of four turbines since November 17.

    The Hai Phong Thermal Power Company shut down one turbine on November 22, and the Nghi Son Thermal Power Plant  reduced its two turbines to minimum operation the same day. The Ninh Binh Thermal Power Company is running low on inventory.

    Vietnam currently relies largely on hydropower and thermal power plants for its electricity needs. However, its hydropower potential is almost fully exploited and its oil and gas reserves are running low. Thermal energy is expected to account for over 48 percent of the country’s power production next year.

    Vietnam, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, has been struggling to develop its energy industry.

    World Bank country director for Vietnam Ousmane Dione said at a forum Monday that Vietnam will need to raise up $150 billion by 2030 to develop its energy sector.

    Dione added that electricity demand in the country will grow by about 8 percent a year for the next decade, as reported.

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  • Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports up 23 pct, rice 4.8 pct

    Vietnam Jan-Nov coffee exports up 23 pct, rice 4.8 pct

    Vietnam’s coffee export volumes from January to November have grown 23 percent year-on-year and rice exports have risen by 4.8 percent, official data shows.

    Coffee

    Coffee exports from Vietnam will climb an estimated 23 percent between January and November from a year ago to 1.725 million tonnes, equal to 28.75 million 60-kg bags, the General Statistics Office said in a report on Thursday.

    Coffee export revenue for Vietnam, the world’s biggest producer of the robusta bean, will edge up 2.9 percent to $3.3 billion in the 11-month period, the report said.

    November coffee exports were estimated at 140,000 tonnes, worth $264 million.

    Rice

    Rice exports in January-November from Vietnam were forecast to rise 4.8 percent from a year ago to 5.7 million tonnes. Revenue from rice exports in the period was expected to grow 16.8 percent year-on-year to $2.86 billion.

    November rice exports from Vietnam, the world’s third-largest shipper of the grain, were estimated at 450,000 tonnes, worth $218 million.

    Energy

    Vietnam’s January-November crude oil exports were seen plunging 42.5 percent year-on-year to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes.

    Crude oil export revenue in the first 11 months of 2018 were expected to decline 20.4 percent to $2.1 billion.

    Oil product imports in the 11-month period were estimated at 10.7 million tonnes, falling 8.1 percent from the same period last year, while the value of product imports rose 15.4 percent to $7.3 billion.

    Vietnam’s January-to-November liquefied petroleum gas imports were seen increasing 1.5 percent from a year earlier to 1.3 million tonnes.

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  • LNG Canada investor Petronas signs gas supply deal with Vitol

    LNG Canada investor Petronas signs gas supply deal with Vitol

     LNG Canada, the US$30 billion (RM125.7 billion) liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project, has bagged another client after project shareholder Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) signed an initial sales deal with trading house Vitol.

    Royal Dutch Shell decided in October to construct the export terminal. It was the first major investment decision in a new North American LNG export project for two years and was expected to launch a new wave of such projects in the region.

    Petronas, the Malaysian state-owned oil and gas company that bought a 25% stake in the project in May, will supply Vitol with 0.8 million tonnes per year (mtpa) of LNG starting from 2024 for 15 years, Vitol said in a statement.

    “The primary supply to Vitol will come from LNG Canada as well as from (Petronas’) other global LNG supply portfolio,“ Vitol said.

    Vitol joins Asian utilities Tokyo Gas, Toho Gas and Korea Gas Corp (Kogas) as buyers, committing to offtake around 2.4 mtpa collectively.

    Such long-term agreements normally underpin project finance and are critical before a final investment decision is taken. But because Shell and partners Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and Kogas are such large players in the LNG market, they can absorb the output into their global portfolios without needing to find significant other buyers.

    Under previously announced deals, Toho Gas will buy 0.3 mtpa, Tokyo Gas 0.6 mtpa and Kogas 0.7 mtpa from LNG Canada.

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  • Murphy Oil said to be in talks to sell Malaysian oil & gas assets

    Murphy Oil said to be in talks to sell Malaysian oil & gas assets

    Murphy Oil Corporation is in talks to sell its Malaysian oil and gas assets after an unsolicited bid that could fetch between US$2 billion to US$3 billion (RM8.4 billion to RM12.6 billion), people familiar with the matter said, in the latest energy merger and acquisition deal in the Southeast Asian nation.

    The independent US oil and gas exploration and production company has tapped banks for the potential sale of its majority interests in eight separate offshore production sharing contracts in Malaysia, said the people, who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential.

    “Murphy wasn’t considering a sale but was approached by a party that put forward a very compelling bid. They are in negotiations,” said one of the people.

    Murphy, which has been in Malaysia since 1999, could agree on a deal in a couple of weeks, the person said. Others familiar with the matter suggested Spanish oil major Repsol, whose presence in Malaysia is focused on its upstream business, or other global majors could be potential buyers for Murphy’s assets.

    The possible transaction comes as M&A activity is heating up in Malaysia’s oil and gas sector, where international companies pursuing expansion plans are spotting opportunities.

    Repsol and Murphy declined to comment on any potential transaction or talks. There was no response to a query to Malaysian state-owned Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), which partners Murphy in Malaysia.

    “This is a good, balanced portfolio and offers a smart way for someone looking to grow quickly in the region. Otherwise, it’ll take a decade to start from scratch,” said Alex Siow, upstream oil and gas analyst at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie.

    “The buyer will be buying into an operatorship position with Murphy’s stake, therefore having the know-how and will to be an operator is important,” he said.

    Murphy produced nearly 46,700 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the quarter ended Sept 30 in Malaysia, the company said in response to the query.

  • Higher revenue lifts Petronas’ Q3 net profit to RM14.3 billion

    Higher revenue lifts Petronas’ Q3 net profit to RM14.3 billion

    Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) net profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2018 rose 43% to RM14.3 billion from RM10 billion a year ago due to higher revenue. The group said in a statement today that the higher revenue was partially offset by higher product costs in tandem with higher prices, coupled with increased depreciation and amortisation.

    Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) rose 25% to RM26.9 billion from RM21.5 billion a year ago.

    The state-owned oil company attributed the higher earnings to its continuous execution of business improvement activities, focused on increased operational excellence and supported by higher commodity prices.

    Revenue for the quarter rose 19% year-on-year to RM63.9 billion, mainly driven by higher average realised prices for key products coupled with increased efficiency throughout the group.

    Higher sales were partially offset by the strengthening ringgit and lower sales volume, mainly for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Capital investments for the quarter stood at RM6.7 billion, mainly attributed to upstream projects.

    For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2018, Petronas’ net profit rose 50% year on year to RM41 billion, due mainly to higher revenue, lower net impairment on assets as well as other expenses. These were partially offset by higher product costs in tandem with higher prices coupled with increased depreciation and amortisation as well as tax expenses.

    Revenue for the period rose 12% year-on-year to RM181.1 billion mainly due to the impact of higher average realised prices for key products as well as increased efficiency efforts, largely offset by the effect of the ringgit strengthening against the US dollar.

    Capital investments for the period stood at RM26.5 billion mainly attributed to upstream projects while total assets rose to RM623.1 billion as at end-September, compared with RM599.8 billion as at end-December 2017.

    Shareholders’ equity rose to RM402.1 billion as at end-September from RM389.8 billion as at end-December 2017. The gearing ratio remained at 16.1% while return on average capital employed rose to 12.6% from 9.8% during the same period.

    The Pengerang Integrated Complex achieved 95% progress as at end-September and successfully received its first crude oil cargo at the Pengerang Deepwater Terminal 2. The project is on track to be ready for startup in 2019.

    President and group CEO Tan Sri Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin said Petronas is on track to deliver a strong year-end performance by maintaining focus on driving efficiency efforts across its operations.

    “The recent drop in oil prices demonstrate the volatile and cyclical nature of the industry and we will continue to maintain our prudent outlook amidst this landscape while remaining steadfast in pursuing our growth strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability and progress of the company,” he said.

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  • Vietnam’s new oil refineries to quadruple capacity by 2023

    Vietnam’s new oil refineries to quadruple capacity by 2023

    Vietnam’s total oil refining capacity will nearly quadruple by 2023 as two new refineries go on stream, market data provider Fitch Solutions reports. The Dung Quat refinery in the central province of Quang Ngai operated by the state-owned PetroVietnam’s subsidiary Binh Son Refinery Limited (BSR) remains the sole facility now, with a crude oil processing capacity of 148,000 barrels per day (b/d).

    Dung Quat will soon be joined by Nghi Son refinery in the central Thanh Hoa Province. Nghi Son is currently testing at full capacity and is scheduled to start commercial operations this month.

    The $9 billion Nghi Son project is owned by the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical LLC (NSRP), a joint venture between PetroVietnam, Kuwait Petroleum, Japan’s Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsui Chemical. It will have a designed capacity of 200,000 b/d of crude oil.

    Meanwhile, the long-delayed construction of the Long Son refining and petrochemical complex in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau resumed in February this year, putting it on track to go on stream by the first half of 2023.

    Licensed in 2008 and initially slated to begin operations in 2014, Long Son hit a roadblock due to site clearance issues and disagreements over the development strategy between the project partners.

    This caused Qatar Petroleum to withdraw from the project in 2015. Thailand’s Siam Cement Group (SCG) increased its stake to 71 percent after it bought the 25 percent stake owned by Qatar Petroleum, while PetroVietnam held the remaining 29 percent.

    In May this year SCG agreed to acquire PetroVietnam’s 29 percent. The refinery is expected to cost $5-6 billion. Once completed it will be able to process 200,000 b/d of crude oil and produce 1.6 million tons of olefins annually.

    “The two new refineries would increase competition in the domestic fuel market, which could require refiners to upgrade, cut costs and move up the value chain to win market share,” Fitch Solutions said in a report released Monday.

    This also spells an end to Dung Quat’s status as the country’s sole refiner, which it has enjoyed since 2010.

    New oil refineries to quadruple Vietnam capacity 2023

    Competition from Nghi Son will be stiff as the government has granted a host of incentives to successfully commission its second standalone refinery, including tax concessions, tariff exemption on crude imports from primary feedstock provider Kuwait and an offtake guarantee from PetroVietnam for the first 15 years of operation.

    The Quang Ngai provincial government in early November sought the same incentives for the Dung Quat refinery to ensure “fair competition”.

    BSR is also planning to invest $1.8 billion over the next three years to expand Dung Quat’s capacity by 23,000 b/d and upgrade the quality of its fuels to Euro 5 from the current Euro 2.

    Fitch Solutions said the upgrade would enable Dung Quat to process higher-sulphur crudes, helping reduce its dependence on Vietnamese light, sweet crudes, mostly from the Bach Ho field, which is depleting and thus becoming more expensive.

    Besides the competition between themselves, the refineries also face significant pressure from imports, mostly from South Korea and Southeast Asian countries, which are of higher quality and priced competitively due to free trade agreements, the report noted.

    “Competition is likely to peak in 2024, when tariffs on fuel imports from ASEAN and South Korea are scheduled to be cut to zero. Concerns about mounting competition have also led both Dung Quat and Nghi Son to consider exports to countries like Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia.

    “Vietnam’s improving self-sufficiency in refined fuels would reduce its need for imports, reorienting trade flows from some of its major fuel suppliers to alternative markets.”

    While insufficient to entirely meet domestic demand, this nevertheless would weigh on the market positions of Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand and China, which account for nearly 95 percent of Vietnam’s fuel imports, according to Fitch Solutions.

    Malaysia and Thailand have the highest exposure to Vietnam’s fuel market — 11 percent and 16 percent of imports.

    Major international fuel suppliers are also likely to find room for growth in the Vietnamese market increasingly hard to come by as their quality advantage over locally produced fuels dissipates with the ongoing upgrades, the firm added.

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  • Korea’s gas prices fall quickly thanks to fuel tax cuts

    Korea’s gas prices fall quickly thanks to fuel tax cuts

    The government fuel tax cut, which was implemented to ease the burden on rising crude oil prices, has turned out to be more effective than initially expected. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on Sunday, the average price of gasoline at gas stations nationwide was 1,575.2 won ($1.40) per liter during the second week of November. This is an 85.2 won, or 5 percent, drop, from the 1,660.4 won average just a week earlier.

    Diesel prices have also dropped to an average 1,419.2 won per liter, down 56.2 won, or 3.8 percent, from the first week of this month, when it was an average 1,475.4 won for the same amount.

    On Saturday, the ministry said the average price of gasoline had further fallen to 1,556.8 won per liter – 133.5 won less than the 1,690.3 won it sold for on Nov. 5, the night before the government’s fuel tax cut went into effect.

    On average, the government cut 15 percent off of all fuel taxes including gasoline and diesel in the hopes of easing the burden created by rising international crude prices. It was the first fuel tax cut adopted in a decade.

    “As the situation [of low-income households and small and medium-sized enterprises] becomes more difficult with rising international crude prices, we have decided to aim for a psychological effect that will help the economy by increasing disposable incomes,” Ko Hyoung-kwon, deputy finance minister said in late October.

    Among gas stations, the government-supported Altteul Gas Station saw the biggest drop in prices – its gasoline costs 135.5 won less than it did on Nov. 5.

    Other major brands including SK, GS, S-Oil and Hyundai Oilbank have cut gasoline prices by 133.3 won.

    By region, Jeju lowered its gasoline prices the most. The island has seen a 169.4 won drop in average price compared to Nov. 5. Daejeon followed, as prices have fallen an average of 149.6 won, while Incheon came in third after seeing a 142 won drop.

    Seoul gas stations on average lowered their prices by 134.9 won while Gyeonggi gas prices fell by 137.2 won per liter.

    Seoul and Gyeonggi account for 39 percent of all fuel sold in the country.

    However, as of Saturday, 173 gas stations around the country – 1.5 percent of the nation’s gas stations – have not taken part in lowering fuel prices. The ministry said that these gas stations failed to deplete all of the gas that they had stockpiled before the Nov. 6 fuel tax cut was implemented.

    The fuel tax cut will be applied for six months.

  • Moody’s downgrades Petronas LNG’s ratings outlook to negative

    Moody’s downgrades Petronas LNG’s ratings outlook to negative

    Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Petronas LNG Ltd’s (PLL) ratings outlook to “negative” from “stable”, following the same outlook revision for its parent company Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) yesterday. At the same time, the rating agency has affirmed PLL’s A3 foreign and local currency issuer ratings.

    Moody’s said the changes reflects its negative outlook on Petronas’ ratings and its expectation of PLL’s continued strong support from and linkages with its ultimate parent.

    PLL is 100%-owned by Petronas, which is in turn wholly-owned by the government.

    Moody’s said given the negative ratings outlook, a ratings upgrade is unlikely and it will revise PLL’s ratings outlook to stable from negative only if Petronas’ ratings outlook is stabilised.

    It said that PLL’s ratings will be downgraded if: Petronas’ rating is downgraded; there is a decrease in Petronas’ ownership of PLL; there is a reduction in Petronas’ supervision of and operational and financial support to PLL; or there is a material increase in PLL’s risk appetite.

    PLL’s ratings were assigned using a top down approach by evaluating the company’s full ownership by Petronas, its strong operational and financial integration with Petronas, and the willingness and ability of Petronas to extend support to PLL in an event of distress.

    Meanwhile, Moody’s assistant vice president and analyst Rachel Chua said PLL’s A3 ratings are positioned two notches below the A1 ratings of its ultimate parent.

    She noted that PLL enjoys ongoing liquidity support from Petronas and it can draw from Petronas’ umbrella credit facility for liquidity management, adding Petronas has continued to support PLL financially through cash injections of almost $400 million over the past three years.

    “Petronas’ support for PLL extends beyond financial assistance. Petronas also provides PLL with significant management support and oversight, including monthly reporting on risk and governance to a committee chaired by Petronas.

    “PLL also has an integrated treasury function with Petronas, where its cash is held centrally by Petronas and cash flow requirements are shared with its parent,” she added.

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  • Petronas has sufficient headroom to absorb one-off exceptional dividend

    Petronas has sufficient headroom to absorb one-off exceptional dividend

    Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) solid balance sheet, sizeable net cash position and ample liquidity provide ample buffer against the payment of one-off dividend to the government that could reach RM30 billion. According to S&P Global Ratings, the financial impact of a one-off dividend of this size is moderate considering Petronas’ cash position and balance sheet quality.

    “The company can finance this dividend, given cash and short-term equivalent of nearly RM180 billion as of June 30, 2018; immaterial reported debt of about RM66.3 billion as of June 30, 2018 and a net cash position of nearly RM114 billion as of June 30, 2018; and solid operating cash flows,” it said in a statement.

    It added that the exceptional dividend of RM30 billion would effectively offset inflows of nearly RM30 billion the company received following the completion of the transaction with Saudi-based oil and gas producer Saudi Aramco in the first quarter of 2018.

    “We project Petronas will remain in a net cash position in 2019 and, depending on the pace of capital spending disbursement, in 2020 as well. This underpins our ‘aa’ stand-alone credit profile on the company.

    “We currently project operating cash flows of at least RM80 billion in 2019 amid higher hydrocarbon prices. These are sufficient to fund capital spending that we forecast at about RM55 billion and regular dividends to the government and minority interest that we estimate at about RM25 billion,” it said.

    The rating agency said the special dividend will not affect Petronas’ solid liquidity as the group’s short-term debt maturities were minimal at about RM11.5 billion as of June 30, 2018, representing less than 10% of its cash balance.

    “We estimate that Petronas’ balance sheet can absorb negative discretionary cash flows of RM40 billion for two years before the headroom under its ‘aa’ stand-alone credit profile starts to reduce. Assuming no change to the company’s investment plan, this implies additional one-off dividends of RM40 billion to RM50 billion, on top of the regular and exceptional dividends in the 2019 budget,” it said.

    It said that the special dividend validates its long-standing credit view that Petronas can be subject to periodic cash calls from the government given its solid financial position, high importance to the national budget and ownership control by the government.

    It added that a sustained period of higher oil prices over the next two to three years will translate into higher dividends from Petronas, and potentially, additional one-off dividends to the state.

    “We cap our issuer credit rating on Petronas (foreign currency A-/Stable/–; local currency A/Stable/–) to that of the sovereign of Malaysia (A-/Stable/A-2; local currency A/Stable/A-1), despite Petronas’ stronger stand-alone credit profile, given this government intervention risk.”

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  • Renewable project facing criticism in Korea

    Renewable project facing criticism in Korea

    The government’s plan to build a renewable energy complex at Saemangeum, North Jeolla, is generating controversy as it deviates from plans to develop the reclaimed tidal flat into a regional economic hub and is being pursued without public approval.

    The controversy flared up as President Moon Jae-in announced Tuesday that the government will construct a solar and wind energy complex at Saemangeum.

    The government argues that around 10 trillion won ($8.7 billion) in private investment will flow into the project and that two million workers will be employed annually in the building of the facility.

    Despite the optimistic forecasts, the move is being criticized as an abrupt policy shift.

    When President Moon Jae-in visited Saemangeum last year, he mentioned developing the area into an economic hub for the Yellow Sea region but said nothing of solar or wind power. Opposition lawmakers have raised concerns about the projects.

    “The government’s plan to make Saemangeum, previously touted to be developed into an economic center for the Yellow Sea, into a mecca of renewable energy means a policy change,” said Chung Dong-young, a lawmaker for the Jeolla-based Party for Democracy and Peace. “This is the same as abandoning plans to expedite the development of Saemangeum.”

    The Party for Democracy and Peace, with 14 lawmakers from the Honam region, is especially angry about being bypassed.

    In light of such concerns, the government has explained that plans for Saemangeum’s renewable energy complex, which will cover an area comparable to the size of four nuclear power plants, will not interfere with existing initiatives.

    “The government’s determination to develop Saemangeum into an economic hub of the Yellow Sea area remains unchanged,” Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kim Hyun-mee said during the annual audit by lawmakers on Monday.

    A spokesman for the state-run Saemangeum Development and Investment Agency explained that it was not the right time for consultations with local residents and the general public.

    “Taking comments from local residents is done during the construction approval process. We are not yet at the development stage, so we haven’t asked for [comments], but we are obviously planning to do so,” he said.

    Opposition lawmakers and energy experts are suspicious that the plans for Saemangeum were changed to accommodate the Moon administration’s pledge to reduce nuclear power dependency.

    The new Saemangeum initiative is part of the government’s 3020 renewable energy plan, which established a renewable target of 20 percent by 2030. With current renewable energy output at just 8 percent of the total, the government is in need of more solar and wind power plants.

    “[The government] seems to be developing Saemangeum as there aren’t vast plots of land in the country suitable for solar or wind power complexes,” said a professor of nuclear energy who requested anonymity.

    Questions regarding the feasibility of the energy project have also been raised.

    “The electrical output produced by the energy complex will be little, at around 60 percent of a nuclear power plant,” said Kim Sam-hwa, a lawmaker for minor opposition Bareunmirae Party. “If it means building six-tenths of a nuclear power plant by spending 10 trillion won, wouldn’t it just be better to continue operating the Wolsong 1 plant?”

    Wolsong 1 is a nuclear plant set to be decommissioned.

    At the moment, renewable energy is less economical when compared with nuclear energy, explained Roh Dong-seok, a senior researcher at the Korea Energy Economics Institute. As the efficiency rate for solar power is about 15 percent, the actual production output of solar power plants is much lower than their rated capacity.

    The government’s promise to return the plots of land to their original state after operating solar and wind power plants at the location for 20 years is in doubt as the energy produced will have to be replaced.

    Local residents remain divided over the new project.

    “Even if it’s a government project, I can’t accept something that is pushed without prior notice,” said Ko Yoon-seok, a local leader of a town adjacent to the tidal flat. “There isn’t enough information to determine whether it’s right or wrong, but it’s difficult to say that everyone is against it.”

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  • Vietnam to cut dependancy on crude oil

    Vietnam to cut dependancy on crude oil

    A prime ministerial advisory body has said the state budget is overly dependent on crude oil, an unsustainable income source. The National Financial Supervisory Commission (NFSC) recently said crude oil is not a sustainable income source, both in the short and long term.

    In the short term, crude oil revenue can be affected by global oil prices and mining output; and the state budget has been significantly impacted by such fluctuations over the years, the NFSC noted.

    In the long run, this source of income is also unsustainable as national reserves are limited, it added.

    Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue had said at a meeting of the legislative National Assembly that Vietnam needs to stop relying on crude oil and focus on tourism to ensure its economic growth.

    “It is better to welcome one million tourists than trying to find one million tons of crude oil because tourism is more eco-friendly and safe for the economy,” he’d said.

    Vietnam’s September crude oil exports totaled 375,000 tons, down 21.1 percent year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office. This brought crude oil exports in the first nine months of this year to 2.97 million tons, down 45.2 percent from a year earlier.

    From early this year to September 15, accumulated budget revenue is estimated to be at VND898.3 trillion ($39.06 billion), of which VND43.5 trillion ($1.89 billion) or about 5 percent comes from crude oil, according to the General Statistics Office.

    Vietnam’s domestic crude oil production reached its peak in 2004 with an output of more than 20 million tons, but has declined to an estimated 14.2 million tons in 2017.

    It is forecast that around 11 million tons will be produced in 2018. Crude oil exports have contributed 0.25 percent to the country’s GDP in recent years.

  • PetroVietnam says Tokyo Gas may help with power plant project in Vietnam

    PetroVietnam says Tokyo Gas may help with power plant project in Vietnam

    Tokyo Gas is interested in cooperating with Vietnam’s PetroVietnam Power Corp (PV Power) to develop a natural gas-fired power project in the Southeast Asian country. On Friday, PV Power’s parent said that Tokyo Gas wants to help secure long-term liquefied natural gas supplies and funds for the construction of the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 power plants in the southern province of Dong Nai, state-run Vietnam Oil and Gas Group said in a statement on its website.

    Tokyo Gas did not immediately respond to a request for comment made via its website.

    The statement follows a meeting between senior executives from PV Power and Tokyo Gas in Hanoi this week, PV Power said.

    The two plants, with a combined capacity of 1,500 megawatts, would be operational from 2020, according to PV Power.

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  • Indonesia Oil Palm Estate Fund Adequate to Support B20 Biodiesel Policy

    Indonesia Oil Palm Estate Fund Adequate to Support B20 Biodiesel Policy

    The Indonesia Oil Palm Estate Fund is confident that it can shoulder additional subsidies paid out to producers under the government’s new biodiesel policy for the rest of the year.

    The government will require all diesel engines in the country to run on B20, or diesel containing 20 percent biofuel derived from palm oil, from next month to reduce imports. It implemented the policy to reduce the country’s current-account deficit, which grew to 3 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year – a level the central bank believes is undermining economic stability.

    But the policy will also swell the subsidies paid to 19 biofuel producers, including Wilmar and the Sinar Mas Group. The fund, also known as BPDPKS, estimates that the policy would double biofuel demand in the second half of this year to 2.1 million kiloliters.

    The fund will need around Rp 9.8 trillion ($672 million) in total to subsidize the production of 3.2 million kiloliters of biofuel for the entire year.

    “[The fund] should be enough,” BPDPKS president director Dono Boestami said on Monday (20/08).

    He said the fund has collected Rp 6.4 trillion from the palm oil export levy in the first half of 2018, which is nearly 60 percent of this year’s Rp 10.9 trillion target, most of which is used as incentives to support renewable energy production.

    “We have prepared funds to expand B20 mandatory biodiesel [production], which is expected to absorb the excess supply of palm products in the market,” Dono said.

    Palm oil production has been on the rise over the past few years, and reached a record 42 million metric tons last year, representing a 115 percent increase from 2010. Palm oil production in the first half of 2018 rose to 22.3 million tons from 18.5 million tons last year.

    But palm oil exports have declined 6 percent to 14.16 million tons in the first half of 2018 due to the imposition of higher import tariffs by some of the biggest importers, such as India and the European Union.

    The fund was established in July 2015 to manage the income derived from levies on companies that export palm oil commodities to ensure the industry remains sustainable. Some of the funds are used to subsidize biodiesel, which currently costs more to produce than petroleum diesel. Biodiesel must be sold at more than Rp 9,000 a liter to cover production costs, while petroleum diesel currently costs Rp 5,150 a liter.

    The BPDPKS has disbursed Rp 4.4 trillion in the first six months of this year, most which was used to subsidize biodiesel production. The remainder was used for the development of the country’s palm oil industry, such as plantation rejuvenation, farmer training, research and promotion.

    Rp 288 billion was spent on the rejuvenation of 5,384 plantations covering a total area of 12,063 hectares as of June, much less than the government’s full-year target of 180,000 hectares.

    Dono said the main obstacles involve getting recommendations from the Ministry of Agriculture to restore plantations and legal verification of business licenses and land ownership.

    The BPDPKS has also funded 118 studies by 37 universities and institutions, which resulted in 101 scientific publications and three books.